S57 VHL Draft Lottery

[Bushito 1,945]

5 minutes ago, Devise said:

 

Those percentages only come into play prior to the lotto happening. The reason NY had a 75% chance of getting 2nd overall, is because the last place team can only bump down one spot. Which means that if any of 9 (STO), 8 (COL), or 7 (SEA) win the lottery, NY would of automatically defaulted to 2nd. As they did here. The only way NY doesn't get 2nd overall is if they win the lottery. 

 

The reason for the other percentages before the lottery happens is due to situations when a second draw is needed. Because 8th (COL) won the lottery, there is no need for a second draw as 7th (SEA) stays in at 4, and both NY (10th) and STO (9th) drop down a spot. 

 

OK, the percentages are wrong and have no bearing on the lotto, got it.

[Devise 4,475]

1 minute ago, Bushito said:

OK, the percentages are wrong and have no bearing on the lotto, got it.

 

They aren't wrong at all. Before any lottery takes place, those are your percentage chances of each team winning 1st or 2nd. 

[Devise 4,475]

The math seems complicated but it works out pretty simply. Also this is the math and formula's used for every lottery since forever, so it's not like I made this up. Was copy pasted from the last lottery. But regardless it works out like this.

 

Each team has a 25% chance to win 1st overall before the lottery takes place. There is only one situation in which the worst team in the league doesn't get 2nd overall, when they win the lottery. Which means effectively that team has a 25% chance at 1st, and a 75% chance at 2nd due to the lottery structure and rules. The other 3 teams share the rest of the percentages, as they have an equal chance at first, and an equal chance at 2nd. 

 

In this instance, Cologne ranked 8th in standings won. As such New York the 10th ranked team gets 2nd. But the math is about determining chances before a lottery takes place. But because NY has a bigger share of the pie as it relates to 2nd, the other three's odds of winning 2nd overall are lessened. They share the remaining 25% equally, which is why it's divided up between them. Granted it's a missing a decimal so I should state that they share the 24.99 percent chance equally. 

[Devise 4,475]

The other way to look at it is there are 8 potential outcomes. However, the worst team in the league claims 2nd overall in 7 of those potential 8 outcomes. The only time it doesn't, is when they win the lottery and go 1st overall. But because there is only a 1/4 chance they win the lottery, the other three teams will only ever get into a situation where they can get 2nd overall 25% of the time. Which means, as you can see by the math, they share that 25% chance, since it's just as likely to be any of them.

 

If the worst team wins the lottery, then those three teamss then all have a 1/3 chance of winning second. Clearly not the 8.33 listed. However remember they only have a 1/3rd chance at winning 2nd, 25% of the time. The same 25% chance NY or the worst team has of winning 1st overall. Because that is the only instance in when any other team gets 2nd. It does all add up, trust me.  

[eaglesfan036 4,601]

1 minute ago, Devise said:

The other way to look at it is there are 8 potential outcomes. However, the worst team in the league claims 2nd overall in 7 of those potential 8 outcomes. The only time it doesn't, is when they win the lottery and go 1st overall. But because there is only a 1/4 chance they win the lottery, the other three teams will only ever get into a situation where they can get 2nd overall 25% of the time. Which means, as you can see by the math, they share that 25% chance, since it's just as likely to be any of them.

 

If the worst team wins the lottery, then those three times then all have a 1/3 chance of winning second. Clearly not the 8.33 listed. However remember they only have a 1/3rd chance at winning 2nd, 25% of the time. The same 25% chance NY or the worst team has of winning 1st overall. Because that is the only instance in when any other team gets 2nd. It does all add up, trust me.  

rigged

[BOOM 8,745]

I now have a headache.

[Beketov 9,025]

5 minutes ago, BOOM said:

I now have a headache.

Last wins lotto, everyone has 33% chance at 2nd. Last doesn't win lotto, they get 2nd. That's the easy version anyway.

[BOOM 8,745]

I'm not sure whether it was the Tylenol or your explanation, but my headache is now gone. Thanks.