TPE! - What Score is Most Common (Read to Earn More TPE) [1/2]

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

Most Common VHL Fantasy Zone Scores

 

The VHL fantasy zone has existed since the dawn of time, and with it comes everyone's favorite tpe earner, the predict the score thread. One day this summer when I had nothing better to do, I collected the data for the score of every single regular season game from Season 61. I have always predicted a score of 3-2 for close games, as my hypothesis was that 3-2 was the most common score. My prediction was not correct, as it turns out the most common score of Season 61 was 2 to 1. If I was a real scientist, I would be looking at multiple seasons, like at least the last 5, in order to have a larger sample size to really determine what the most common score was. However, even looking at the most common score for S61 was a painstaking process that took me a while, and there is no way I'm doing that for four more seasons of data. If someone else wants to look this up for me, go for it.

 

 

The above handy dandy chart shows shows how many teams each different score occurred during Season S61. As you can see, 2 to 1 is the most common score as it occurred 43 times, or 15% of the time. The next two most common scores were 3-2 at 12%, and 4-2 at 10%. Overall, 50% of all games during S61 had at least one of the teams score exactly 2 goals, which means that if your prediction does not have one of the teams scoring exactly 2 goals, you are doing it wrong. In the future, I'm going to use this information to always pick a score of 2-1 in predict the score if I think the game is between two equally-talented teams, and will pick a score of 4-2 if I think there is a wider gap in talent between the two teams. 

 

However, I should throw in the disclaimer that perhaps S61 was just more defensive than other seasons. I was not paying much attention at all to that year, and maybe there were a lot of good goalies and defensemen or something, thus making 2-1 the most common score as it is lower scoring? Even so, I think it's clear that the sim favors at least one of the two teams scoring exactly 2 goals in a game, so that is your best bet if you want to earn your prediction points. The VHL shifting from 10 to 8 teams has most certainly helped lower scoring totals, as every team should be able to acquire a franchise goalie pretty easily now, with only 8 starting goalie positions available in the league. 

 

Let me know your thoughts on this. Will you be ignoring of all my phony science like @Bushito? Will you follow my lead and start predicting every game to be 2-1 from now on? Is this media spot Pulitzer worthy and the GOAT? I think it should be considered for such honors because I am helping you earn tpe!

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by eaglesfan036

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

Is the x axis sorted at all or is it just random?

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

Just now, Fire Hakstol said:

Is the x axis sorted at all or is it just random?

random, when i was tallying the scores 5-3 was the score of the first game so I just tallied them from there. I will go and sort it from highest to lowest percentage though good idea. 

[Victor 11,037]

S61 was quite low scoring too but dunno if 8 teams has anything to do it if S62 is anything to go by.

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

REVIEW: An interesting article on the most common scores and their importance for VHL/VHLM fantasy zone. Like you, I was surprised that 2-1 was more common than 3-2. What I also find interesting is that 4-2 was more common than 3-1, even that 2-1 is more common than 3-2. I don't know how many empty net goals there are in the VHL (or if that's even tracked), but it'd be interesting to see how much they affect the data. I'm hoping you do that other media spot you mentioned this afternoon, but overall, this was a really interesting and different article.