PDO / CF%

[Quik 4,113]

Had a couple minutes at work to update the PDO chart I've been keeping.

 

Current PDO:

 

PDO trend (about Games 23/45/60)

 

 

Current CF%:

 

CF% Trend

 

3 most meaningful trends I notice are Toronto/Vancouver/Helsinki CF%. No clue what happened to the Wolves, but holy hell

[Beaviss 4,949]

26 minutes ago, Quik said:

No clue what happened to the Wolves, but holy hell

 

Tell me about it

[Quik 4,113]

53 minutes ago, Beaviss said:

 

Tell me about it

Yeah idk, you guys are have dropped off a cliff both in controlling games and you’ve had pretty shit luck of late as well, dropping a full point in PDO. 

 

Toronto has fallen off the same cliff in controlling play, but they’re riding that PDO wave to 3rd place. 

 

Helsinki has seen our luck turn and we’ve picked up steam as the season goes. 

 

Riga has controlled play all season, and are getting a shit ton of luck of late, jumping up almost 1.5 PDO points in the last ranking. 

 

Seattle is starting to see their luck drop, but they’ve still carried play all season. 

[Enorama 1,980]

How much do you really think PDO is an indicator of luck? I've never personally been a fan of it, because better goalies have better SV% generally because they're just... better at goaltending, not necessarily because they're lucky. The same could be true for S% but to a lesser extent. I understand that someone shooting 25% is unsustainable and lucky, but can the same be said about low shooting percentage and a lack of luck? Maybe they just suck at shooting or just generate a higher volume of low risk scoring chances.

[Quik 4,113]

48 minutes ago, Enorama said:

How much do you really think PDO is an indicator of luck? I've never personally been a fan of it, because better goalies have better SV% generally because they're just... better at goaltending, not necessarily because they're lucky. The same could be true for S% but to a lesser extent. I understand that someone shooting 25% is unsustainable and lucky, but can the same be said about low shooting percentage and a lack of luck? Maybe they just suck at shooting or just generate a higher volume of low risk scoring chances.

 

I do think it’s a bit of an indicator. I think CF% is a better indicator, since that shows who is actually carrying play and should be doing well vs. not doing well. 

 

Like, Seattle and Riga I would expect to have their higher PDO, and teams like Moscow and Calgary as lower tier PDO teams (would argue the quality in Calgary, they should probably have a lower PDO). 

 

But it then you look at Helsinki and Toronto, for example. The Legion are shooting double the standard deviation above league average, without as much quality on their roster to indicate they should. On Helsinki, we’ve got 5 guys with 95+ scoring up front, so even if you think they’re taking shots from each other, you’d expect them to score at a better rate than we have so far. 

 

Basically, with PDO, things should level out, it’s rare for every player on a team to perform above average, so it should come close to average when everything is combined. I’d say for teams wth above 55% CF%, you could reasonably expect close to 101 before luck starts being a factor.