Wild vs. Reapers top line matchup [1/2]

[Peace 1,562]

Today we're looking at the very real possibility it'll be one through fourth seeds advancing to the second round of the VHLM playoffs, but that's not an unexpected conclusion of the first round of the playoffs, what makes it more interesting is that the Saskatoon Wild (who dropped to fourth) would face the Philadelphia Reapers (who climbed to first) in what I expected to actually be the championship match up. While Ottawa and Halifax have formidable teams, that was my initial projection based on the spreadsheets I have comparing the Wild to the Reapers and other teams. While I haven't kept up with it, Saskatoon has certainly remained competitive against teams above them in the standings. 

Since the most anticipated series I expected is happening a whole round sooner, I present you the line by line comparison between the Philadelphia Reapers and the Saskatoon Wild. 

Yes I know, the Saskatoon Wild have to advance to the next round, but being up 3-1 over Mexico I'd nearly tender my resignation if we drop the series 4-3.

This is a comparison for the top units only, which means Saskatoon's first forward and defensive lines against Philadelphia's first forward and defensive lines. I'll break down the comparisons below, and maybe I'll add a TL;DR snip to the bottom of the thread but I genuinely want this match up to build some hype within the VHLM community, so I don't care what the VHL-league'd players think as they're not included into this. 

I may have my quarrels with Blade, we don't get along and have different policies on how to GM as individuals, so this is an article that removes the practices from both parties (Saskatoon front office and Philadelphia front office) and focuses on a raw comparison. It's crude, nothing overly fancy, and really just a couple paragraphs to get the TPE bonus - but this is also something I've wanted to do before the playoffs even started but couldn't without my PC (I'm on the road or away from my home 50% of the month right now). 

FIRST FORWARD LINE 

Saskatoon: 
Griffin - Nygren - Pavlov

Philadelphia:
Sabertooth - Clements - Frostbeard

If we're looking at total points assigned (TPA) the Reapers technically win this battle by a landslide... if said landslide was three rocks falling down the side of a cliff, but it should be noted nevertheless. Honestly three attribute points near the cap is effectively inconsequential, as Pavlov's build (he's got 223 TPE) is dedicated towards a pure-scorer, so he's chosen to withhold applying the final three TPA to his player. The only reasonable attribute Victor would use them for is passing, and a quik glance at the player's page would reveal he's building up his skating, puck handling, defense and scoring first as this is his GM player for Moscow. 

Let's take a deeper look into each build, though, as that's where the meat and potatoes are with a comparison like this. 

Griffin: 

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
70	40	40	70	60	70	40	62	70	74	40	40	40	200

 

Nygren:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
40	40	40	78	40	70	40	66	80	75	40	40	40	200

 

Pavlov:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
40	40	40	77	55	72	40	50	77	77	40	40	40	197

 

VERSUS

Sabertooth:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
50	44	41	70	60	70	40	70	76	70	40	40	42	200

 

Clements:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
50	40	40	70	55	60	70	75	65	70	40	40	40	200

 

Frostbeard:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
45	40	45	70	45	75	40	70	80	70	40	40	40	200

 

We can clearly observe that the top line Saskatoon deploys is geared towards more offensive builds, while the lineup the Philadelphia Reapers have iced focuses more on two-way play on both sides of the ice. We're going to ignore checking, fighting, discipline, strength, penalty shot, experience and leadership because - aside from checking - both teams aren't using physicality to their strategy. Philadelphia''s top line is publicly available as 0-1-4 (Physical - Defense - Offense) while Saskatoon's top line is a little more conservative at 0-2-3, both solid options for your offensive units. 

When comparing skating among all six players Saskatoon has a significant advantage when put together, in fact Saskatoon's top unit has 15 more attributes assigned to skating than the Reapers, and while a jump from 70 to 71 wouldn't be as notable in the sim, the jump from 70 to 77 is, and enables Saskatoon's top line more skating options when the decision formula is applied during a play - this could enable Saskatoon to enter the Reapers zone more frequently than the Reapers top line against a similarly built top defensive unit.

Next up is a direct puck handling comparison - and while both teams are similar - Saskatoon once again earns a victory in this head-to-head match up thanks to the Wild players having almost identical PH stats. While the Reapers puck handling is exceptional at 205, the Saskatoon Wild benefit from the previously mentioned similarly, resulting in a narrow 212-205 victory in this attribute comparison. 

Passing is a hotly debated topic whether or not it leads to assist production, and I've recently experienced a season where most of my points were assists, even though my build was largely (for the majority of the season) 80/95 SC, 80/99 SC and 85/99 SC. I believe that assists come with passing and defense, along with puck handling, as scoring really is - as per the STHS manual - a decision for the player to shoot (as passing is a decision to pass). Ignoring the other attributes, focusing on just how likely each player is to pass than another across the rink, then we look directly into passing and nothing else. The Reapers have 215 attribute points in passing, and as sad as I am to report this, it absolutely slaughters Saskatoon's collective 178. 

Scoring - like passing - is the tendency for a player to take a shot over a pass... at least according to the STHS manual. While a true comparison will be below (passing+shooting) the Saskatoon flagship offensive unit is more 'shoot now' over their contemporary line across the ice rink. Although not impressive, the Saskatoon Wild enjoy a significantly more offensively geared top line when comparing passing+shooting together as a ratio, but as an attribute alone they squeak by with 227 over Philadelphia's 221. 

Now if we take those two into a ratio based on the collective, we'll notice that Saskatoon is considerably more Carolina Hurricane like. They'll take shots from the red line, the face off circle, the hash marks, the slot, the point, their own blue line and your grandma's front porch... and we're sure Shakleford would try to hit the net from Saturn when he just right sends it... but Philadelphia is largely more balanced with a 215:221 pass-to-shoot ratio, while Saskatoon will try to complicate things with a barrage of shots with 178:227 ratio. 

So the last thing to compare is defense. Philadelphia makes things boring by having a static seventy points with each player within their own top unit - which collectively adds 210 points into the skill - while Saskatoon likes to spice up the love life a little by throwing more defense onto their players, which enables them to make defensive plays easier than their counterparts. Saskatoon's top unit is significantly more 'defensive' than Philadelphia's with an impressive 227-210 advantage in perhaps the most important attribute on STHS.

Which line up is better is up to interpretation, but I'd like to give the advantage to Saskatoon's top unit especially after considering they'll intercept more passes, play a better defensive game, all while getting more pucks to the net over raw possession through passing and a similar puck handling ability to Saskatoon. What do you guys think? 

TOP DEFENSIVE UNIT 

Rusty Shackleford:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
70	47	45	66	50	70	40	66	46	80	40	40	45	200

 

Anthony Amberback:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
70	40	40	70	45	70	40	70	60	78	40	40	42	196

 

VERSUS

Edward Vigneault:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
70	40	60	70	50	60	40	70	70	70	40	40	40	200

 

Kevin Low:

CK	FG	DI	SK	ST	PH	FO	PA	SC	DF	PS	EX	LD	TPA
40	40	40	70	45	70	40	70	80	74	40	40	40	188

 

This is clearly a battle between offensive defenders and defensive defenders if a quik look at the scoring attribute makes a statement, and it should, so you can anticipate who's going to be better defensively and offensively with a quik glance at the builds. Although it is entirely possible for Philadelphia to change things up with a deep defensive depth, this is currently their top pairing, so we'll use that in a direct comparison. If there is a change to be made you simply swap that which was changed and they'll most likely match up the same. Both Shackleford and Amberback are defensive defenders, with Amberback having a more offensive upside. 

For this comparison we'll be looking at checking, skating, puck handling, passing, scoring and defense. We add checking to the mix this time around (unlike above) because of their position and role in the STHS decision making formula. They'll hit an attacking player and cause a turn over while defending far more than a forward will while defending or in the offensive zone, but this is just an observation I've noticed. 

Since we're already writing a novel I'll expedite the process. 

When it comes to checking Saskatoon enjoys a 140:110 advantage as both Shackleford and Amberback have seventy points into the checking attribute, while Low hasn't updated a single point into his own state, preferring a far more offensive build with his defender over both Saskatoon pillars. Saskatoon's defensive wall will be more physical, which may lead to more turnovers and possession control for the Saskatoon Wild, which is a bonus when they're breaking up offensive attacks a little more effective than the Reapers top unit. 

Skating is a similarly attributed fight, but the Reapers win by four, as Shackleford only has sixty six into his skating in favor of an impressive 80 DF attribute. As we've mention above the difference between one rating isn't significant, but there's a large cap and a milestone between 66 and 70. Although they're nearly the same, the Reapers win out and they'll have the advantage with the STHS decision making formula against their comparisons. 

Puck handling surprisingly goes to Saskatoon with a 140:130 advantage, and to be honest when I briefly looked at Low's build, I expected both skating and puck handling to be higher despite the general 'get everything to seventy' meta the VHL recommends across first and second (plus) generation players. Regardless, despite Saskatoon winning, most of the plays any four of them will make is from their own defensive zone so it could be argued that even fifty puck handling would result in a similarly competitive player. 

Passing is another area where Philadelphia edged out Saskatoon, in fact it's exactly the same skating, as they're technical advantage is only four greater than their Saskatoon counterparts. Shackleford and Amberback's strengths will be revealed soon, and there is still room for Low to grow, but it's unlikely as the playoffs have already begun that another player update will be ran. It's not unreasonable to assume the Low you see now is the Low you'll get throughout the post-season. 

Scoring is clearly 'advantage Philly', as both Low and Vigneault are built more as offensive defenders (or you could argue two-way defenders) over the builds Shackleford and Amberback employ for their players. Philadelphia enjoys a 150:102 advantage over Saskatoon when it comes to offense being produced by the top defensive pair, and they know what they're doing; Saskatoon runs Shackleford and Amberback at 1-3-1, 0-4-1 or 0-3-2 over Philadelphia's 0-2-3. 

Defense is where Saskatoon slaughters the Philadelphia pairing - 153:144 - and while not as impressive as the scoring deficit I will argue that defense is more important for a defender (and even a forward) over attribute points assigned into more raw offensive categories. Shackleford and Amberback are relied upon defensively and do a remarkable job keeping Saskatoon's end of the rink relatively clean, while tossing in a fair share of assists thanks to the limited discovery that puck handling and defense actually lead to more assists than passing does. 

In an offensive system Philadelphia's top pairing is more effective, they'll create more chances and opportunities to score, but in a defensive battle the balance is shifted into Saskatoon's favor. 

In a hopeful best of seven series, I think this one goes all the way, with the Reapers depth pushing the Wild out of the second round in seven games. 

Hope you enjoyed the read. 

2, 000+ words. 
Claiming for the next month! 

[Peace 1,562]

Week 2. 

[Peace 1,562]

Once again unto the breech! 

[Peace 1,562]

Three! 

[Speed 126]

Review:

Wow this was really in depth review! Really wondering how much time you put into this piece! Lol

[Peace 1,562]

On 7/13/2019 at 4:58 PM, sjs88speed said:

Review:

Wow this was really in depth review! Really wondering how much time you put into this piece! Lol

A lot! 

Didn't mean much though, we were defeated in five by the Reapers when I anticipated more.

Also... fourth and final claim.