The Ninth Season, or How We Created a New Meta

[McWolf 3,115]

The Ninth Season

or How We Created a New Meta

 

The addition of the VHLE brings a lot of good for the VHL in general. It gives some lesser players a league where they can dominate, but also where they feel wanted, something that’s not always the case in the cap-strapped VHL. It also opens up 6 more paid GM jobs, and 6 more right-free AGM internships. It became a reality of the modern VHL that it’s hard to be hired as a GM, even in the minor league, so hopefully, this gives 6 newer members opportunities to learn the ropes in the VHLM or in the VHLE, and maybe a couple of them will eventually make their way to the VHL.

 

But overall, I think the most intriguing part of the VHLE and everything that comes with it is the fact that it gives high-end players the choice between playing 8 or 9 seasons in the VHL. I find it interesting that players now have an extended career - even if they don’t play that extra season in the VHL - as it could help players reach record marks that might have seemed out of reach before - just maybe not in the way you’d expect it.

 

Nerds, take your calculators out and join me as we analyze how the extended careers and the adjusted depreciation will affect TPE and TPA numbers for players that have the choice between spending their first post-draft season in either the VHLE or the VHL.

 

 

Who is the Ninth Season for?

 

Since this new opportunity only concerns absolute TPE whores, let’s check two high-end veteran players, so we can try to extrapolate their TPE and TPA values going into a ninth season. Let’s take the two best earners from the S72 Entry Draft: my own SS Hornet, and Jubo’s Valtteri Vaakainen. Both players got drafted with around 350 TPE (379 and 341, respectively) and, midway through their 7th season, they both have around 1,350 TPE (1372 and 1333, respectively), meaning that they both earned about 1,000 TPE over the course of 6½ seasons. That gives them an earning rate of just north of 150 TPE per season. These approximations give us this timetable for a hypothetical high-end player.

 

Time	TPE
Draft	350
Draft +1	500
Draft +2	650
Draft +3	800
Draft +4	950
Draft +5	1,100
Draft +6	1,250
Draft +7	1,400
Draft +8	1,550
Retirement	1,650

 

Let’s now duplicate this hypothetical TPE whore and let’s give both of the iterations different career paths. On one side of the table, we’ll have P8, the player who will follow the intended path of spending his first season after he is drafted in the VHLE, therefore playing the regular 8 VHL seasons. On the other side, we’ll have P9, the player who decides to forego the VHLE season, starting his VHL career right off the bat and playing a total of 9 seasons in the major league. The TPE of both P8 and P9 will stay the same throughout both their careers, but since one of them starts his VHL career earlier, he’ll be hit earlier - and eventually a lot harder - by depreciation.

 

Time	TPE	P8		P9
		League	Reg.	League	Reg.
Draft	350	-		-
Draft +1	500	VHLE		VHL
Draft +2	650	VHL		VHL
Draft +3	800	VHL		VHL
Draft +4	950	VHL		VHL
Draft +5	1,100	VHL		VHL	3%
Draft +6	1,250	VHL	3%	VHL	4%
Draft +7	1,400	VHL	4%	VHL	5%
Draft +8	1,550	VHL	5%	VHL	7%
Retirement	1,650	VHL	-	VHL	-

 

The New Prime Builds and How They'll Old Through Regression

pun intended

 

You don’t need a masters degree in mathematics to see in that table that, while P9 is getting the usual treatment, with a 3% regression coming after his 5th season, P8 is getting a freebie, with an additional season before that 3% regression hits. It’s hard to see exactly how it’ll affect their TPA however, as we’d have to give them a hypothetical build, to see how each attribute will be affected by the new regression timeline. Let’s just pretend that both of them use the current meta of banking for a full season before regression starts. That would mean that P9’s peak build would be at 950 TPA, which is around what we’re seeing right now around the VHL, and P8’s peak build be at 1,100 TPA. We can now design builds for these amounts of TPA. 

 

Attribute	P8		P9
	Value	TPA	Value	TPE
Defense	99	185	99	185
Puckhandling	99	185	99	185
Scoring	99	185	99	185
Skating	99	185	99	185
Checking	90	105	80	55
Strength	90	105	80	55
Passing	90	105	80	55
Faceoffs	70	30	70	30
Discipline	55	15	55	15
Fighting	40	0	40	0
Leadership	40	0	40	0
Penalty Shot	40	0	40	0
Total	-	1,100	-	950

 

I elected to make both of them fairly typical centers with a heavy focus on the four main attributes: defense, pick handling, scoring and skating. I feel like that's been the meta for a while now and it's not going to change anytime soon. Anyway, the attributes are all interchangeable, the goal of this exercise being more to give us a baseline for general builds rather than an exact build. If a pass-first physical defenseman decides to go with 99 in checking, defense, passing and skating, it would still give them the same general build of four attributes at 99, three at 80 or 90, one at 70 and one at 55. Or something around that, really. It would be impossible to run simulations for all possible builds, but this should give us a fair idea of how regression would affect both for them. Whatever you actually want to do, you have a solid base with four main and three secondary attributes. So, here’s how regression would affect both of these player builds.

 

Time	TPE	P8
		TPA	Banked	Reg.	Lost	Jagr	SSF	regTPA
Draft	350	-
Draft +1	500	500
Draft +2	650	650
Draft +3	800	800
Draft +4	950	950
Draft +5	1,100	1,100
Draft +6	1,250	1,100	150	3%	137	Yes		1,100 (13)
Draft +7	1,400	1,100	163	4%	183	Yes	Yes	1,080
Draft +8	1,550	1,100	130	5%	223	Yes	Yes	1,007
Retirement	1,650	1,107	-	-	-	-	-	-

 

Time	TPE	P9
		TPA	Banked	Reg.	Lost	Jagr	SSF	regTPA
Draft	350	-
Draft +1	500	500
Draft +2	650	650
Draft +3	800	800
Draft +4	950	950
Draft +5	1,100	950	150	3%	140			950 (10)
Draft +6	1,250	950	160	4%	150	Yes	Yes	950 (10)
Draft +7	1,400	950	160	5%	184	Yes	Yes	926
Draft +8	1,550	950	126	7%	248	Yes	-	828
Retirement	1,650	928	-	-	-	-	-	-

 

These tables are probably pretty confusing at first, so I’ll try to break them down as much as I can, while explaining the thought process behind them. Basically, I put both of these builds in the portal’s built-in TPA Tool, to see how much TPA would be lost at every regression hit. Since we’re talking about high TPE players, I’m assuming they’d both get max contracts from the time they hit 900 TPE until the moment they retire, which should be enough for them to buy both Season-Specific Fighters (SSF) and 3 Jaromir Jagr. I haven’t run their finances, I’m just assuming that’s how they’d use their cash. The SSF’s lessen the depreciation before Seasons 7 and 8, dropping it from 5% to 4% in Season 7 and from 7% to 5% in Season 8. There are no SSF for Season 6 or 9. The Jagr’s prevent a single attribute from being depreciated, making it worth 30 TPA if it’s used before Season 6, 40 TPA before Season 7, 48 TPA before Season 8 and 56 TPA before Season 9. The Lost column combines the TPA lost from regression and the TPA saved from the fighters.

 

I’m also assuming that both players start banking their TPE a full season before the first regression hits them, so instead of adding 150 to their TPE every season, I add 150 to the Banked column. The banked column doesn’t grow however, as I take what’s lost every season from there in priority. If the player loses more TPA from regression than what they have banked, then I’m using the first TPE they gain that season to get them back to their peak build, which is why the numbers in the banked column dip below 150 in the last couple of seasons for both P8 and P9. The last column, regTPA, represents the TPA right after regression, with the leftover banked in parenthesis.

 

The TPA Timeline of the High-End Players

 

Let’s break the table down, drop the superfluous columns and only keep what really interests us: the TPA. In the next table, we see both players side by side, with their expected TPA at both the start and the end of every season. Numbers in parenthesis once again represent the banked TPE at that moment in time.

 

Season	P8		P9
	Start	End	Start	End
Season 1	350	500	350	500
Season 2	500	650	500	650
Season 3	650	800	650	800
Season 4	800	950	800	950
Season 5	950	1,100	950	950 (150)
Season 6	1,100	1,100 (150)	950 (10)	950 (160)
Season 7	1,100 (13)	1,100 (163)	950 (10)	950 (160)
Season 8	1,080	1,100 (130)	926	950 (126)
Season 9	1,007	1,107	828	928

 

We can quickly see here what was mentioned before: starting in their last season before regression, so their 5th VHL season, both players start banking to preserve their primebuild for as long as they can. From the end of Season 5 until the end of Season 8 (except an hypothetical start of Season 8 at 1,080 TPA), P8’s build is their peak 1,100 TPA build. Similarly, P9’s build will be their peak 950 TPA build for most of their career, starting at the end of Season 4 and ending in Season 8 (except, again, the start of Season 8). In both cases, Season 9 is a bit rougher, but both players should start the season around 100 TPA below their primebuild, and could get back up to around their build by the time they’d retire at the trade deadline.

 

 

Open Discussion on the Objectively Better Path

 

So, is there a path that should objectively be prioritized? The answer is a mixed one. One side, the P8 side, seems to offer only advantages:

 

- A chance to play in the new league made of fresh new teams and old favourites coming back in the VHL universe. That’s especially relevant in the next couple of seasons. The VHLE will lose its charm over time, but who wouldn’t want to win the first European Cup, or however it’ll be named? Who wouldn’t want to be named the very first VHLE MVP?

 

- An opportunity to start their rookie season at an unprecedented TPE thanks to an additional season of earning before making their VHL debut. My approximation take P8 from 500 TPE at the start of their rookie season to an insane 650 TPE by the end of it. 600+ TPE is in the great 2nd liner/borderline 1st liner range, if you ask. Having the chance to start your career as a borderline 1st liner on a team that doesn't suck is unheard of, in this era. If rookies want playing time, they have to go to terrible teams. Else, they get to be limited to 10 minutes per game in great teams. Both cases don't create great statlines, but 500 TPE on a good team might.

 

- A higher peak, that won’t even be hard to fight, because of the delayed regression. Right now, if a player decides to go up to 1,100 TPA for one season (keyword: one), there’s no way they can fight regression after that. They’ll probably be around 800 TPA for the rest of the seasons that should have been prime seasons. The delayed regression and higher start TPE will let players that spend a season in the VHLE spend about half their career around that insane number.

 

The other side of the equation could easily be dismissed as they get the disadvantages that go with the three previous advantages. P9 would skip the VHLE (pending), have a worse rookie season where they’re easily the worst player on their team and they’ll be 150 TPA behind P8 for most of 3 seasons. However, it does offer some value in ways that can’t be quantified.

 

- The novelty. Taking P9’s path, you’d be one of the first and one of only players to play 9 seasons in the history of the VHL. That might not seem like a lot, but it’ll drive some people to take that route, for sure. I might, depending on the position I create.

 

- An opportunity to spend more time in the league that truly matters. After a couple of careers, the full season in the VHLM gets old. The VHLM is barely even recognized when you look at the big picture, and I doubt it’ll be better for the VHLE. You’re wasting a season competing for awards that have zero weight on your VHL HOF resume, competing for a cup that you’ll forget about the very time you make your VHL debut. From the perspective of an old bitter member, only the VHL matters and some members will for sure take the path that makes them spend more time there, even if it means they’re a tiny bit worse than if they took the other path.

 

- And that brings us to the last point, which is less of a clear point and more of an open discussion: what does that extra 150 TPA even do for you? If we take the example of the meta 4x99 build, your main attributes are at 99 anyway, what are you spending that extra TPA on? The secondary attributes won’t affect your game all that much, and might even screw up the decision algorithm if you bring them too close to 99. Are we even sure that a 1,100 TPA player would dominate the league? I’m honestly not convinced, not with STHS, where some 500-600 TPA players challenge who should be the league’s theoretical best players for awards every single season.

 

- Oh and here’s an extra discussion topic, while we’re talking about the meta build of rushing defense, puck handling, scoring, and skating to 99: is that really the best build we can get? I’m pretty sure that if you stopped upgrading these attributes at 95 and used the extra 160 TPE on other attributes, you could not only be a more well-rounded player, but you’d also be better equipped to fight regression, since you wouldn’t have to take the attributes back to 99 and essentially pay that extra 160 TPE every single post-regression season.

 

Truth is, there’s not a single better path. Just do what you want, really. You wanna be a part of the VHLE history? Go for it. You wanna be part of the select group of players that exceed the usual limit of 576 career games played? Go for it. I will. I’m going to skip the VHLM or the VHLE, whichever they let me skip, and I’m going to play 9 seasons in the VHL. I enjoy my time in the VHL infinitely more than I enjoy my time in the minor leagues. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe the VHLE will be a fun environment and I’ll be missing out on something amazing, but I’ll take my chances.

 

The only reason I can imagine right now that would make me want to play my first post-draft season in the VHLE is if I’m making a goaltender, in which case I’d rather be a starter for an extra season instead of rushing into a VHL backup role. But the jury’s still out on that, I’m not convinced I really want to make a goaltender.

 

-

 

2.6k+ words.

4 claims, for weeks ending on June 13, June 20, June 27 and July 4.

Edited June 9, 2021 by McWolf

[bigAL 2,176]

I’m glad someone numerically literate crunched the numbers. I might have to go back in the logs and see just how the hell Hornet got so high pre draft. I know there haven’t been many people who met that threshold before, but I wonder if we’ll see some serious TPE hoovering with this 9 season carrot dangling in front of people.  

[McWolf 3,115]

1 minute ago, bigAL said:

I’m glad someone numerically literate crunched the numbers. I might have to go back in the logs and see just how the hell Hornet got so high pre draft. I know there haven’t been many people who met that threshold before, but I wonder if we’ll see some serious TPE hoovering with this 9 season carrot dangling in front of people.  

I got two recruits as I created, and they were grandfathered under the old rules that gave the full 15 TPE when they reached 200 TPE, I think? I'm pretty sure I'm not the last player to get to 350 TPE by the time they got drafted, though.

[Spartan 4,404]

13 minutes ago, bigAL said:

I’m glad someone numerically literate crunched the numbers. I might have to go back in the logs and see just how the hell Hornet got so high pre draft. I know there haven’t been many people who met that threshold before, but I wonder if we’ll see some serious TPE hoovering with this 9 season carrot dangling in front of people.  

I'm fairly certain that the calculations here are on the high side, even for max earners, mainly because of the old recruiting format.

 

Edit: I've just realized my earning rate per season with Letang is 158.25, so initial calculations are probably fine. Ignore the sentence above.

 

I think uncapped TPE has also cut down since S71, which is why I don't think you're seeing many folks in future classes (S73+) go ridiculously beyond the others in their class unless the class was weak. But I think that 1k TPA would be for someone truly standing out, I think like 1% of the userbase. 1.1k might be a tad high for TPA, but overall the calculations here do show that you could have a significantly higher TPA player by staying in the VHLE for a season than to go for 9 in the VHL. 

 

However, I also agree with the point of "what in the world are you spending TPE on" beyond a 950 TPA build. SK/PH/SC/DF is all gonna be a 99, and fewer and fewer folks are going past 80 CK because of the PIMs. Centers make sense for this comparison because of the necessary FO/ST investment, but I think it's also important to note that non-centers/goalies would likely be able to have 4 99's with a 950 TPA build, and could probably still be a top player in the league by going 9 years in the VHL. Higher attributes has been proven to not guarantee a dominant player (yes, yes, we all know who I'm talking about), but 950 TPA could allow for folks to comfortably be a top player while fighting depreciation.

 

For reference, Letang has been a 850 TPA build for his entire peak and has had 3 99's and a 95, as well as 3 80's and a 60. TPA-wise, he's pretty consistently been a top player at his position, but he's not "great" by any means. Frankly, if 950 TPA is the peak for a 9 year all-VHL career, I might prefer to go straight to the VHL if I can land on a team that will give me big minutes my rookie year to negate the initial 100-150 TPA difference.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Spartan

[McWolf 3,115]

3 minutes ago, Spartan said:

I think uncapped TPE has also cut down since S71, which is why I don't think you're seeing many folks in future classes (S73+) go ridiculously beyond the others in their class unless the class was weak. But I think that 1k TPA would be for someone truly standing out, I think like 1% of the userbase. 1.1k might be a tad high for TPA, but overall the calculations here do show that you could have a significantly higher TPA player by staying in the VHLE for a season than to go for 9 in the VHL. 

Even if you go to a slightly larger crowd, you could say they get 140 TPA per season instead of 150, and their end builds are at 1,000 TPA and 850 TPA. The goal was really just to highlight the two different trajectories. Of course, uncapped opportunities differ from a season to the next, so we're not all going to have exactly the same build by the time we get to same point, but it does give a ballpark range.

 

6 minutes ago, Spartan said:

(yes, yes, we all know who I'm talking about)

;-;

 

7 minutes ago, Spartan said:

Frankly, if 950 TPA is the peak for a 9 year all-VHL career, I might prefer to go straight to the VHL if I can land on a team that will give me big minutes my rookie year to negate the initial 100-150 TPA difference.

Same, honestly. Sign me up for 9 seasons, including 5 at 900+ TPA. We'd still compete with the folks sitting on 1,000+, in that range, TPE is just a number and it doesn't always matter all that much.

[Spartan 4,404]

1 minute ago, McWolf said:

Same, honestly. Sign me up for 9 seasons, including 5 at 900+ TPA. We'd still compete with the folks sitting on 1,000+, in that range, TPE is just a number and it doesn't always matter all that much.

I'm starting to strongly believe in results after 700+ TPA being a byproduct of team composition, so yeah. I'd probably be more interested in running around in FA to maximize stats then if I was HoF-hunting.

[Nykonax 1,564]

considering im over point per game with 600 TPA I think it's a no brainer to go the 9 season route. Say there's like a 30 point difference between a VHLE player's first VHL rookie season, and a non-VHLE player's first VHL season, it easily gets made up with a solid 9th season. Which, by your numbers seem possible if you have an optimized build.

[STZ 5,360]

I'm confused..