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The Current Situation:

 

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These are the standings heading into the final game of the season. The Helsinki Titans will play the North American Conference leading Seattle Bears whereas the Prague Phantoms and the London United both play each other. Worthy of note is the win column that has Helsinki with one more win than both London and Prague, as wins are the first element used to break a tie.

 

The Helsinki Titans currently have a winning record over the Seattle Bears with two wins and one loss. While it’s notable that the Bears were playing a BOT goalie in the Titans last win over them, it is also worth noting that the winners in each of the three matchups heavily outshot their opponent.

 

To remove all doubt of missing the playoffs, the London United would have to beat the Prague Phantoms, but they’ve only done so in one of four encounters this season. Two of their three losses however were in OT. Prague have actually out-shot London in every single matchup they have had this season, however when the London United last played Prague, they were playing their backup goalie.

 

It is worth noting that all four teams will be playing starting goalies in these matchups as they have played 63 games each.

 

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If Helsinki lose in regulation to Seattle, then it is obvious. Helsinki miss out on the playoffs.

 

If Helsinki lose to Seattle in overtime, the only way Helsinki can make playoffs is if London loses to Prague in regulation. This is because both Helsinki and London would be tied on points but Helsinki would get into playoffs over London due to their higher win tally.

 

If Helsinki beat Seattle and London lose to Prague (regardless of if that loss is in OT or regulation), Helsinki will overtake London in the standings and London would subsequently miss out on the playoffs

 

If Helsinki beat Seattle and London beat Prague in regulation, then both London and Helsinki would overtake Prague (Helsinki would be tied on points with Prague but would overtake them based on their win tally) and Prague would miss out on the playoffs. It’s worth noting this is the only situation where Prague can miss the playoffs.

 

If Helsinki beat Seattle and London beat Prague in overtime, then London will overtake Prague into fourth place (through having a higher win tally) but Prague would still make playoffs in fifth place as they would be on 94 points and a win over Seattle would only give Helsinki 93 points. Therefore, Helsinki cannot be guaranteed a place in the playoffs even if they defeat Seattle.

Edited by MubbleFubbles
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https://vhlforum.com/topic/121307-this-playoff-race-tho/
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