Claimed: Thoughts on the S59 Slobodzian Trophy [1/2]

[MWHazard 85]

Now that THIS thread is over-

 

I noticed a few people voted for Bo Boeser (including myself). I'm wondering if they saw the same thing I saw. Franchise Cornerstone (FC) had a killer season, no doubt about it. 133 points is amazing. I noticed a lot of discussion about his hit total of 341, which, to be sure, is extremely high. League leading, in fact.

 

He had 202 PIM, though. That also led the league. That got me wondering about other high hit total players in the league. None of the other players that broke 300 hits are "big" point scorers, and generally seem like lower quality players aside from Fook Yu (83 points- 11th best), who racked up 316 hits- good for third most in the league. I'm not suggesting he's a Slobodzian Trophy candidate, but I think you'll get why I'm bringing him up. Let's look at FC and Yu's "hits versus minor penalties taken". Hits are great, and sometimes force turnovers. But there's a cost to all that physicality, and usually it’s paid in putting your team on the penalty kill.

 

FC's 202 PIM included 30 Major PIMs from fights, so let's subtract those off to get 172 PIMs from minor penalties. I'm going to assume that corresponds to 86 minor penalties, since I haven't been able to find a real count of "minor penalties taken". Potential for some marginal error, there if some of those were double minors. That means that FC has one minor penalty taken for about 3.67 hits.

 

Yu, on the other hand had 113 PIMs. Subtracting off his 5 Major PIMs from fighting, he had 108 PIMs from minor penalties. Assuming 54 minor penalties, that corresponds to one minor penalty taken for about 5.85 hits. So about an 8%* advantage in hits, with a 59%** difference in the number of minor penalties taken. Honestly, I don't think that's a very good trade-off, especially for such an important offensive player. Because of this, I posit that FC was not the best two-way forward in the league. It honestly might have been Yu, or potentially Gabriel McAllister, who also scores well in this metric, racking up 290 hits and 88 minor penalty minutes (44 minor penalties taken), or one minor penalty taken for about 6.59 hits. An 18%*** advantage in hits for FC, with ~95%**** more minor penalties taken. McAllister finished with 80 points, good for thirteenth. But that's not what we're here to discuss.

 

In my opinion, the key fact here is that FC's physical game resulted in so many penalties, which by definition puts his team at a disadvantage. That makes this a close three-way race for the award between FC, Rhett DeGrath, and Boeser. DeGrath had a great season, but personally I believe he's a better choice for MVP as opposed to "Most Outstanding". That leaves FC and Boeser, who had a brilliant season. He had just five fewer points than FC, with 128. Over a 72 game season, those are very similar point totals, in my opinion. FC did have a superior P/20. Boeser did not play as physical of a game, totaling 121 hits. But when he did, he was responsible. Boeser had 39 PIMs, with 15 PIMs from major penalties off fights. That means he had 24 PIMs from minor penalties. Assuming 12 minor penalties, that means Boeser took one minor penalty for about 10.08 hits.

 

That leads me to conclude that Boeser was the more outstanding player this season, because not only did he put up a similar number of points, he also didn't put his team at nearly as much of a disadvantage through overaggressive physical play. The numbers are sort of stupidly large, given the disparate physical play, but for the sake of completeness, FC had about an 181%***** advantage in hits, but he also had about 617%****** more minor penalties taken. What would really help in evaluation efforts would be to be able to track takeaways and giveaways. Nevertheless, I believe that Boeser was the superior player and voted for him accordingly. Their offensive output is comparable, and FC's inability to play a physical game without leading the league in penalties makes him a second place candidate, to me.

 

Congratulations to both of them on their seasons, and thanks for reading. If anyone checks my math and sees an error, I apologize.

 

---Math Referenced---

*(341-316)/316 = ~8%

**(86-54)/54 = ~59%

***(341-290)/290 = ~18%

****(86-44)/44 = ~80%

*****(341-121)/121 = ~181%

******(86-12)/12 = ~617%

Edited April 12, 2018 by MWHazard

[scoop 3,432]

@boubabi

[Baozi 1,658]

Vote Fook Yu for MVP! Not this dirty beer leaguer @boubabi

 

Interesting analysis though.

Edited April 12, 2018 by tfong

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Great analysis, and thanks for the vote!

[boubabi 4,725]

are yo ureally considering PIMS or you just have no idea how the sim engine works ? 

[Kendrick 4,741]

Great analysis, I agree!

[boubabi 4,725]

Jesus christ, I'm trying to read this article without cringing. Will you consider hits taken as well ? 

 

PIMS are part of the hit sim mechanism, you can't be elite in hitting and not have a ton of PIMS, it doesn't work that way

 

With some quick math, I cost approx 13 goals with my PIMS, and that doesn't take in consideration the the double minors my penalties could have drawn

 

So, aight, 13 goals is approx 7% of every GA helsinki had

 

How that number compares with my 60% scoring % of every helsinki's goals ?

 

You would remove that 7% on my team contribution, and it would still be higher than Boeser's contribution.

 

Also, how can you calculate how many goals I've created with a good forecheck ? It's impossible, it's only  stipulation. You are only interpreting stats to favor Boeser. You might have something, but those numbers never were considered negative, so you can try to make that a thing, but anyone with strict minimum logic would know it isn't a thing  

Edited April 14, 2018 by boubabi

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

This is awesome.

[Fire Tortorella 2,653]

Great work.

[boubabi 4,725]

5 minutes ago, Fire Hakstol said:

Great work.

well done 

[boubabi 4,725]

majestic

[boubabi 4,725]

superb 

[MWHazard 85]

All I have to say is that you’re definitely most outstanding in being insecure.

 

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Review:

Reading back on this and seeing Boubabi's responses is pretty funny. Definitely wasn't one to take any opposing opinions easily. Couldn't have an argument without getting attacked.