VHL Playoff Race - A Schedule Analysis

[CowboyinAmerica 2,840]

 

It's a Race for 4th and 5th - Who's Left Out?

 

It’s a near miracle – a competitive playoff race! Since the VHL moved to the five team playoff format, most of the playoff battles have been for third place (and that first round bye), or for top seed overall. There has usually been, though, a clear delineation between the top five teams and the bottom three teams in the VHL.

 

That certainly isn’t the case this season, though. As it currently stands, the Wranglers and Reign are tied for fourth with 59 points, and the Dynamo are just 2 points behind them and currently out of the playoffs – but with one fewer game played. This is going to be a race that may very well come down to the final sim, and one of those three teams will find themselves out of the lottery.

 

With all three so close, what might separate them in the end may not be talent after all, but how easy their schedules are during the final third of the season. With that in mind, I decided to take a look at all three teams and how their schedule breaks down through the end of the year. To do so, I’m breaking the league into three different tiers of strength – Tier 1 (NY, HEL, SEA), Tier 2 (CGY, RIG, DAV) and Tier 3 (QUE, TOR).

 

 Calgary Wranglers – 59 points – 17 games left

Tier 1 games (9): New York x3, Helsinki x3, Bears x3

Tier 2 games (5): Riga x2, Davos x3

Tier 3 games (3): Quebec x2, Toronto x1

 

Analysis: The Wranglers may hold the fourth spot right now, but it will be tough to imagine they’ll do so the rest of the way through the season. In playing the league’s top three teams three times a piece, it’s conceivable that Calgary will be underdogs in over half the games they have left. That might not be enough to capture the top spot, and especially if they have an under .500 record against Riga and Davos the rest of the way, there may not be enough wiggle room to capture the top spot. Winning all three Tier 3 games left is a must, and even that will be complicated by the fact that goalie Norris Stropko still needs to sit six more games. The next two sims will teach a lot, with Calgary having games against Davos, Helsinki, and New York twice.

 

 Riga Reign – 59 points – 17 games left

Tier 1 games (10): New York x5, Helsinki x3, Bears x2

Tier 2 games (4): Calgary x2, Davos x2

Tier 3 games (3): Quebec x2, Toronto x1

 

Analysis: But if Calgary’s schedule looks tough, then Riga’s looks downright deadly. The Reign face what most people would consider the top team in the league, the New York Americans, five times down the stretch. That’s not a good thing, considering Riga is a solid 0-5 in its five games against New York so far this season. When that’s coupled with only playing last place Toronto once and not having many games against Calgary and Davos to catch up with, then Riga’s another candidate to go into a spiral. And similar to Calgary, they’re another one that will need to play their backup goalie, as V2A hasn’t sat yet this season.

 

 HC Davos Dynamo – 57 points – 18 games left

Tier 1 games (8): New York x1, Helsinki x6, Bears x1

Tier 2 games (5): Calgary x3, Riga x2

Tier 3 games (5): Quebec x3, Toronto x2

 

Analysis: The Dynamo might be in sixth right now, but in the final third of the season, they also look to have the easiest schedule. While Davos only plays one less Tier 1 game than Calgary, six of those eight games are also against Helsinki, a team that (in this writer’s opinion) doesn’t have New York’s depth and should be easier to plan for. Meanwhile, five games against Tier 3 teams should lead to easy points, especially since starting goalie Shawn Brodeur has done all the sitting that he needs to do this season. The next sim will be a crucial one, with a game a piece against Calgary and Riga, but as long as Davos picks up 2 points in those games combined, I feel good about saying they’ll make the playoffs.

 

My prediction: Calgary and Davos make the playoffs

[Tyler 882]

Really good work

[Beaviss 4,955]

Insightful go 

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Ironside/Brodeur going to push into the playoffs.