Biased Boulet Balderdash

[Beketov 8,653]

Okay so the last word of the title doesn’t fit great but I wanted the alliteration. 

 

Anyway, I was arguing with Beaviss about this the other day and figured I might as well get some TPE for the digging I did so why not write something up about it?

 

Beaviss was saying he believes that Louth should take home the Boulet this season. I said with a young(ish) award committee it’s possible but personally I completely disagreed. Why you might ask? Well, here is Louth’s stat line:

 

Beau Louth (VAN) - 53G, 53A, 106P, +24, 39PIM, 42HIT, 54SB, 13GWG, 3009 FO (60.72% won)

 

Now obviously his points are pretty solid and his SB is relatively high for a forward but there’s 1 glaring issue there: hits. Only 42 of them to be specific. Obviously no, hits are not everything and SB is important. However in STHS Shots Blocked tend to come purely from being on a bad team that faces a lot of shots. Like Vancouver for example who failed to make the playoffs. For this reason hits is usually highly considered because it’s a very individual stat even if slightly misleading. If you take a scroll through past Boulet winners you would actually find that if Louth wins he has less than half of the currently lowest hit total on that list which is currently 88. Now that’s obviously a problem but could be okay if his shots blocked were something phenomenal but they are kinda middle of the road for Boulet winners. Plenty have been higher, plenty have been lower.

 

So, I titled this bias for an obvious reason. Take a look for comparison at Thompson’s numbers:

 

Matt Thompson (SEA) - 52G, 49A, 101P, +48, 100PIM, 283HIT, 48SB, 11GWG

 

That is only 6 SB less than Louth, despite playing on the Victory Cup winning team rather than a lottery team. Meanwhile the hit total is 241 higher. So 5 points less, 6 SB less, 241 hits more. With historical precedent of hits being important that doesn’t sound like a question mark much.

 

Want another less bias option though? I can provide that:

 

Kronos Bailey (HSK) - 37G, 50A, 87P, +35, 121PIM, 346HIT, 21SB, 6GWG, 868 FO (53.34% won)

 

Now obviously Bailey has quite a bit lower on the points and SB department but 304 more hits than Louth. That is a number than IMO cannot be ignored when hits as historically been the most important factor for Boulet winners.

 

Ultimately the Boulet is for top 2-way forward, not top forward. Louth May have more points but his defensive numbers don’t make sense. His hits are abysmal and his SB lead leaves nothing to be desired when you consider the teams involved. Will this make any difference? I doubt it, I just wanted something to write about. But should Louth be considered a top 2-way contender with less than half of the lowest hit total ever to win? I think most definitely not.

[Devise 4,475]

History in the making? Do shot blocks matter more than hits? I suppose we were due for someone to come along and say that hits aren't purely defensive but with our metrics it's really the best we got. We'll see how things shake out in award voting but yeah....looking at those three players I can tell you throughout VHL history Louth wouldn't even be nominated for the award in older seasons. If you have less than 100 hits when most good Boulet candidates got the goals/points and the 200+ hit mark you weren't even considered. Times be changing. 

[Beaviss 4,949]

Hits dont = defense flawed stat system to base the award over. Shot blocks = Defense.

[Beketov 8,653]

Just now, Beaviss said:

Hits dont = defense flawed stat system to base the award over. Shot blocks = Defense.

SB = Shots Against = Shitty Team

 

Based on the stats we have and the precedent of the award hits mean more than SB. Even if we want to pretend SB is important I’d say 241 hits make up for 6 shots blocked.

[Devise 4,475]

5 hours ago, Beaviss said:

Hits dont = defense flawed stat system to base the award over. Shot blocks = Defense.

 

I mean you do realize if you read the sim output itself...like the moment to moment action that STHS designates two types of hits right? A hit, and a hit that causes a player to lose the puck. If you could explain to me how someone can hit someone and cause them to lose the puck and that isn't defense, that would be great. 

[Advantage 2,776]

Yeah I wouldn’t vote Louth for sure based on this.