Should season predictions be done through PM? (POLL INSIDE)

[scoop 3,447]

I'm working on collecting data from the S39 predictions thread for a media spot or two, and it's pretty easy to see that a lot of people make their predictions by simply copy/pasting what someone else posted. For example, nine people predicted Keiji Toriyama to win playoff MVP. This was something that I predicted in the third set of predictions. Obviously people copied my predictions; no one actually thinks Toriyama will win. Another thing I noticed was that for one of the awards, possibly playoff MVP, there was a name that popped up for the first time on the third page (or maybe late on the second), and from then on a bunch of people predicted it. Heck, last season, Kyle posted that he would just copy Jardy, who hadn't even posted in the thread yet (and laughably, Jardy never posted in the thread).

On one hand, I do think it would be neat if people made their own predictions, but at the same time, I don't think it's the biggest of issues when you consider that it may make it difficult for fringe new guys who don't want to have to put in the effort of doing some research to see even which teams are good (let alone who might win Top Leader). In the midst of working on this, I decided to set up this poll. Here is what I had in mind when creating each poll option.

1. Yes; and we should discourage people from giving their predictions to others

Even if we don't have people post their predictions on the forum for all to see, I think every team in the league (VHL and VHLM) would have a thread in their locker room where someone has posted predictions to be copied by anyone who doesn't desire to make their own set of picks. This first option is basically saying that if predictions were changed, we should also tell people that we'd like for them NOT to do this.

2. Yes; but we should not discourage people from giving their predictions to others

This option states that we should allow people to give others prediction sets to PM to whatever account is in charge of them. One issue with doing this might be that it excludes new members who are not in any locker room, and these are some of the people who most need help with predictions. One way to combat this could be that when the predictions thread is posted (even if predictions are PMed, we could have a closed thread with the template, instructions, etc.), members can be directed to someone if they desire assistance with their predictions.

3. No; nothing would be solved because people will still get predictions from others

As I said, people will still be copying others. However, if predictions were PMed, people would copy someone on their team instead of some random person who posted in the thread first (or more recently). So would it really change anything? I do think that it's possible that there would be fewer people who simply copy, as they might want to send in predictions before someone posts some in their locker room.

4. No; it's a good idea, but the extra effort wouldn't be worth it

 

Maybe it would be beneficial in the terms of curbing the issue with copy/pasted predictions, but there is extra effort required not just for the people who might now come up with their own picks instead of copying. Whoever ends up tallying the prediction points would probably have a more difficult time. It would probably be easier for that person to look through a thread than through 70+ private messages (the account that is receiving the PMs would be a new account made for this sole purpose).

 

5. No; I don't believe there is any problem

 

Maybe this isn't an issue. Maybe you think it's alright that very possibly more than 50% of the people don't make their own predictions. Or maybe it's not as many people as it seems. Some people also probably don't just copy a random set of predictions, but look for one that they mostly agree with and use that one.

 

[kareykoala 62]

New members rely on having somebody to copy to claim their easy TPE. A first gen minors player would not know how to predict the upcoming season as their whole focus has been in the minors league. 

 

This year, I went out on a limb and made my predictions. I didn't know whether mine were stupid or fairly accurate, but I did so boldly. Many new members will not be as inclined to be that bold and make their own predictions.

I think we should keep it as is as it adds to the activity in the league.

Edited July 22, 2014 by .eQ

[BOOM 8,812]

I've been in at least 9 LR's at both levels, and never seen a thread with prediction suggestions. Was that just a suggestion, or do those exist these days?

[scoop 3,447]

I've been in at least 9 LR's at both levels, and never seen a thread with prediction suggestions. Was that just a suggestion, or do those exist these days?

I'm saying that if predictions responses weren't posted publicly, I believe the GM (or an active team leader) of every team would post their predictions in the locker room for people to copy if they wanted to, knowing that not everyone would want to create their own predictions.

[sterling 2,000]

No

[boubabi 4,725]

Leading goals : Nicklas Lindberg #believe

[Guest]

No.

[JardyB10 4,868]

It would be nice sometimes if people actually put more thought into it, but I don't really think it's an issue at any rate.  Getting a slew of PMs might not be all that fun either.

[BOOM 8,812]

I'm saying that if predictions responses weren't posted publicly, I believe the GM (or an active team leader) of every team would post their predictions in the locker room for people to copy if they wanted to, knowing that not everyone would want to create their own predictions.

 

Oh, I see.

[scoop 3,447]

It would be nice sometimes if people actually put more thought into it, but I don't really think it's an issue at any rate.  Getting a slew of PMs might not be all that fun either.

I pretty much agree with this.

[Higgins 3,618]

Yeah screw that

 

When I calcualated 38 pred. points like 10 people had top leader as 'Mean Green' they all got 2 TPE total, suckers

[RomanesEuntDomus 442]

I would prefer it if people, especially the more veteran members, would make their own predictions instead of just copying someone, but I think the negative impact that a rule change like this would have for newer members makes it not worth the trouble. In my first 2-3 seasons in the league I knew very little about who was good and who wasn't even though I was pretty active and I think it's still the same for a lot of newer members and semi-actives. And a lot of them will probably not ask for help if there were no predictions to copy anymore, but just not do them instead.

[Samurai7 102]

I see why some people do copy other peoples predictions, but it could depend on your knowledge of the league I suppose. If you have been in the league for any period of time, you can generally get to know the elite and rising stars of the VHL and those in situations that potentially see them set to succeed. For formatting, I copied someone, but changed several selections according to who I thought has a better chance to accumulate stats.

[Ninetyfourgoalie 168]

New members rely on having somebody to copy to claim their easy TPE. A first gen minors player would not know how to predict the upcoming season as their whole focus has been in the minors league. 

 

This year, I went out on a limb and made my predictions. I didn't know whether mine were stupid or fairly accurate, but I did so boldly. Many new members will not be as inclined to be that bold and make their own predictions.

I think we should keep it as is as it adds to the activity in the league.

This.  I will fully admit that I copied and pasted because I didn't have the time to comb through the entire league to make my predictions since I'm very, very unfamiliar with the VHL.