VSN Presents the "VHLE Math Show", a VHLE Playoff Picture Story

[leandrofg 1,126]

(This awesome graphic is courtesy of @kirbithan)

 

The VHLE. To some, the VHL's bastard. To others a lovely place to be. Some say those who claim the VHLE should be abolished for not being part of the family are haters. But I say... that they are haters. For sure, for sure!

 

It's all good, though. I must say something about those who say the VHLE is a lovely place to be because it's not. Why isn't it, though?

 

For one, the Express is going too fast. Insert the "You just played yourself" gif here because I have just jinxed myself. But, you are right, it is not because of this... I just shamelessly plugged my team - because they deserve it! And, yes, it's also not because of the Geneva Rush. No active player is suffering there... only @MexicanCow123, which we can live with. On an unrelated note, please, @MexicanCow123, the Simmer, can Leandro score some points in the next VHL sim? Please and thank you! (No he did not.)

 

Yikes... we got off-topic fast there. Sorry, @v.2 . I know you are most definitely reading this VHLE-related article. Since we have you here... after the new depreciation rules... is Atlas coming to the E?

 

Well, we have six more teams in the league. Why on Earth isn't the VHLE a lovely place to be?

 

Let me show with the help of a graphic made with the standings right after the simulation on December 15th.

 

 

Other than the previously mentioned teams, everyone is still in contention for the playoffs, but only four teams can get there.

 

Let me indulge if you weren't aware of how the VHLE Playoffs are seeded. Teams placed 1st through 3rd are granted an immediate place in the semi-finals. But the 4th and 5th classified play a series to the best-of-5.

 

This race for the VHLE Playoffs isn't for the faint of heart. Even teams who are deep into their bust part of the cycle are still in the running for a place in the show, which would lead them further away from the top prospect they crave.

 

So... everything is possible in hockey, but let's be realistic here. Let's focus on the five teams actively trying to make the playoffs and find out who will miss them!

 

We could start with the team that has had the reigns of the 2nd place, but instead, we'll start with a team that is dear to my heart and the only team that made a move during the trade deadline. Yes, the Bratislava Watchmen.

 

Coming into the season, their GM, John Frostbeard, disclosed his intentions to leave the team after the season, effectively ending his era as the Bratislava General Manager. This could have lit a motivational fire for the Watchmen, but the truth is that the Slovakian team was in trouble for most of the season. 

 

But let's not dwell on the past. The present meant trading for a defenseman and a goalie, both heavy needs for the Watchmen. The trade was phenomenal for the Watchmen, and the team has been hot since then!

 

How phenomenal, you ask? Well, I can sit here, writing this article, and lie to you about how many days I've been writing, but after another day of sims... this is how the standings look.

 

 

See? I was right about the Vasteras team, who now have one more issue to deal with after their prospect, Vincent Laroche-Gagnier, stated he would not play in Sweden next season. You can read the full LF News Calgary article here.

 

Let's get back to our main topic. As it currently stands, there is still a lot of volatility in the standings. Proof of that is Bratislava's climb from 5th to 3rd. But the same can happen in the inverse direction. Stockholm, for example, lost 6 points from their ceiling in just one sim. This isn't ideal for a team trying to claw their way to the playoffs, but there is still hope for the Swedish team.

 

Let's try to pinpoint which teams will make the playoffs and where they will stand by the end of the season. To do this, we will look at which team's schedule and evaluate what their path might be.

 

Strength of schedule remaining (Strongest to weakest):

1. Istanbul

2. Stockholm

3. Bratislava

4. Rome

5. Oslo

 

The champions, Oslo Storm, have four cupcake games remaining. They will face both the Vasteras Iron Eagles and Geneva Rush twice. Of the 8 games remaining, we predict them winning 5. This would give them a minimum of 10 more points and a maximum of 13. They could finish the season with between 84 and 87 points.

 

Rome has had a tight grip on the 2nd place but never managed to run away from the competition as Cologne did. Still, they have given themselves a comfortable cushion to play with. They have 8 games remaining, and we predict 5 wins. They could end the season somewhere between the 90 and 93-point mark.

 

Remember how we said Bratislava had been hot since the trade deadline? That trend continues, and Bratislava manages to snag 6 of their 7 remaining games. 89 or 90 points... that could be where Bratislava ends up.

 

A more difficult schedule now, Stockholm. In the same boat as Bratislava, the Swedish side only has 7 games remaining, but we still predict them winning 4 of those. It helps that two of those are against cupcake teams, so it leaves 3 losses in 5 games against direct contenders. Can they do better than that? This record would leave them finishing the season between 77 and 80 points.

 

The most difficult schedule to end the season, and the only one without the sweet, sweet cupcakes. The Istanbul Red Wolves will face their playoff opposition for 8 games... should they get there. The defense has been the pillar of this team, and we don't see them stopping now. Playoff hockey is the physical kind, and this team has been ready since day one.

 

So... how will this end?

 

Honestly, it's hockey, and we don't know. This has been an unpredictable season, full of pleasant surprises, and this fight has been and continues to be one for the ages.

 

Known is that away from this madness, the S86 Cologne Express is poised to break the single-season point record established in S83 by @Dil and the Vasteras Iron Eagles. The Iron Eagles finished the S83 season with 111 points, but the Express can still achieve a whopping 124.

 

By now, you have already done the math and noticed there aren't many changes moving forward. It's time for our predictions, though.

 

2nd place, the Rome Gladiators.

3rd place, the Bratislava Watchmen.

4th place, the Oslo Storm.

5th place, the Istanbul Red Wolves.

 

I feel for Stockholm, though. But it's still possible! Although unlikely, these players have much more to give. Led by Larry Abass Jr (@RileyL), John Richards (@John Cimarno) , Sadie St-Louis (@sadie), and Lachlan Summers (@Kirby), the Stockholm Vikings story is yet to be finished.

 

This could have been the end of this article, but we are now past two more simulations and are even closer to the end of the season. In these two sims, our predictions have started to take form, and the pack is closer than ever. But while Bratislava found the right time to be hot and start a winning streak, Stockholm can only reach the 5th seed now. (And Vasteras is finally out of contention.)

 

 

This has been a stellar race for the playoffs this season. Not only that, we hope that this trend continues into the playoffs, turning the race for the Renaissance Cup into one of the best ever.

 

On an unrelated note, this season has become historical already after the Cologne Express surpassed the standing record for points scored in a season. And with 4 games to go can set a record for seasons to come.

[Baby Boomer 679]

Let’s go Rome let’s clinch that 2nd place spot!!!

[vincentlg2007 497]

On 12/18/2022 at 8:24 AM, leandrofg said:

On an unrelated note, this season has become historical already after the Cologne Express surpassed the standing record for points scored in a season. And with 4 games to go can set a record for seasons to come.