First overall odds

[scoop 3,382]

scientifically calculated odds of who will be drafted first overall

 

FISTED ANALLY BY A CIRCUS MONKEY Analfist 48% @STZ

You have to go back to Season 78 to find a draft in which a defenseman went first overall, so the best non-defenseman in the draft is the favorite to go first overall. STZ is known to make elite players, and Analfist will likely be no exception. Even though the needs of most lottery teams would dictate drafting a defenseman first, he is viewed as a cant-miss prospect.

 

Mark Calaway 28% @Beketov

Calaway may not be the best defenseman available, but he is still very much a sure thing. Beketov's last three players were first first, second, and first overall, so you have to think that whoever is drafting first overall will consider making this pick. If someone wants a defenseman, and they want to take the player they can be most certain will become a star, Calaway will be that guy.

 

Bobby Bob 13% @Baby Boomer

Baby Bob was an outstanding player, exceeding expectations and proving to be a steal at 9th overall in the S79 draft. With the possibility of being selected first overall, Bobby likely won't become a steal, simply because GM's have a better idea what they can get out of him.

 

Merome Dilson 9% @MexicanCow123

Dilson's chance of going first overall relies on New York or DC winning the lottery, and even if one of them does, it's still not the most likely selection. They both have a few more seasons with their current starters, but neither this draft nor the next look to offer another elite goaltender.

 

Francesco Mancini 1% @GioSivo

If for some reason a team wants a forward, but they don't want Analfist, Mancini may be the next best option, given BjorkaBjorn Bjornabjorkson's intended career path. Another reason a team might select Mancini first overall would be if they favor drafting a first gen player. It's not the most likely, but certainly more likely than the next guy.

 

Jacob Stone <1%

The best player in the draft, Stone may seem like he should be higher up the list, but you just have to take a look at my last player for the justification here. Taylor Mourning had entered the S79 draft with the third most TPE, and fell to 10th overall. He wound up 7th in TPE among his draft class, well below four members who have players in the S88 draft.

 

Someone else <1%

Anything could happen, so I need to leave a little bit of room for someone wanting Jasper Davis or Bjornabjorkson for some reason.

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by scoop

[AJW 2,106]

Can confirm Analfist, Bob, and Dilson all have high odds of going first overall

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by AJW

[STZ 5,339]

History shows I will go 2nd Overall.

[Beketov 8,939]

3 hours ago, scoop said:

Beketov's last three players were first first, second, and first overall

Should have been 3 straight first's tbh but Bush decided to draft me 2nd when he had first and second overall anyway just for fun.

 

55 minutes ago, STZ said:

History shows I will go 2nd Overall.

By the odds of this that would put me first which I believe I woefully don't deserve this time around. Like my TPE is fine but I have no sweet clue what I'm doing on D or with hybrid attributes.

[GioSivo 167]

6 hours ago, scoop said:

Francesco Mancini 1% @GioSivo

so you’re telling me there’s a chance…

[Triller 1,592]

But who will be the steals!  1st overall is not the most exciting.  When the 30th overall makes a splash then people are talking!