VSN was wrong... Again.

[AJW 2,192]

Discussions in the Malmo Nighthawks locker room broke out this morning as Goaltender Ash Sparks @DarkSpyro has been firing the team up for our mid-season push heading towards this Trade Deadline. The Nighthawks currently ride a 23-6-3 record to lead the EU Conference. Many players have stepped up this season including longtime goaltender Ash Sparks between the crease, and newly traded centerman, Randy Bobandy. With Malmo's early taste of success, the Week 1 VSN Predictions thread was thrown into the chat. Chatter was buzzing around the fact that VSN had made predictions against the likings of the Malmo Nighthawks. Let me break you down @Alex's early predictions on the Malmo Nighthawks:

 

"I’ll be honest here, I struggled a lot with where to put Malmo."

 

• 3rd place in the EU is where Alex ranked us. This is a safe bet and I can't complain at all.
• Malmo currently leads the EU conference and has been in a battle for 1st all season.

 

"While on paper their roster is very solid, the long-term concerns around their goaltending do still exist, and their defense has always done a amazing job of minimizing scoring chances against, allowing Ash Sparks @DarkSpyro to win the S93 Greg Clegane Trophy."

 

• Jorgen Lovstrom is ready to be called up next season to fill the role of Malmo's long-term Goaltender.
• Our defense is great, so is Ash Sparks. His 2.41 GAA is very deserving of the lowest GAA award and his talents put in last season.
• Ash Sparks currently leads all goaltenders in GAA (2.3 GAA) with the most games played this season. Last season "HOF" goaltender Jesse Teno had a 2.5 GAA behind Sparks' 2.41.

 

"The concern with Malmo exists with their offense, in previous seasons the majority of Malmo’s offense has been driven by Jacob Stone @scoop, one of the league’s best defensemen."

 

• Malmo S94 Goal Leaders 
  • Jacob Stone: 17
  • Gregger McKeggegger: 16
  • Phillip Rave: 16

 

"However, with Malmo’s top forward being a pass-first player, this has been seen to reduce defensemen production which in turn likely reduces Malmo’s offense."

 

• Randy Bobandy (12G, 34A, 46P) and Viktor Jensen (10G, 28A, 38P) are indeed Pass-First players who are #1 and #2 in Malmo points this season. Jacob Stone (17G, 19A, 36P) is #3.
• Randy Bobandy is currently top 5 this season in assists.
• In 32 games played:
  • Malmo averages 3.4 Goals/Game.
  • Seattle leads the league in Goals/Game while averaging 3.8.

 

"With that being said there’s a chance things work out well, and Malmo could potentially push for a 3rd Victory Cup."

 

• We are 100% pushing for a 3rd Victory Cup

 

And with THAT being said, all is love @Alex, but you were very wrong to doubt the Nighthawks! On the back of our Captain, our leader, and the face of the S93 Greg Clegane Trophy, Ash Sparks is on a war path this season in search of a back to back to back Victory Cup. This Nighthawks roster is hungry and in full stride.

Edited June 14 by AJW

[AJW 2,192]

TPE Package 4/5

[Gustav 6,469]

2 hours ago, AJW said:

While on paper their roster is very solid, the long-term concerns around their goaltending do still exist, and their defense has always done a amazing job of minimizing scoring chances against, allowing Ash Sparks @DarkSpyro to win the S93 Greg Clegane Trophy

This is kinda nuts. Sparks is an award-winning goalie—so put some respect on that instead of blowing that off. 
 

I will say that I was surprised last season to learn how well Malmo was doing given that I thought other rosters were definitely better on paper. I can see why predictions might have undervalued them, for sure—but good on Malmo for being well built and finding ways to make things work. 

[DarkSpyro 971]

1 hour ago, Gustav said:

 

4 hours ago, AJW said:

While on paper their roster is very solid, the long-term concerns around their goaltending do still exist, and their defense has always done a amazing job of minimizing scoring chances against, allowing Ash Sparks @DarkSpyro to win the S93 Greg Clegane Trophy

Expand  

This is kinda nuts. Sparks is an award-winning goalie—so put some respect on that instead of blowing that off. 

 

Aww thanks~ I appreciate you, G!   

 

Yeahhh.. it was fairly disappointing to see when Alex said that. Ngl it didn’t feel good when I initially read VSN’s S94 week 1 predictions. Unfortunately it’s nothing new for them to take unwarranted shots at Sparks.

[Alex 3,246]

21 hours ago, AJW said:

"While on paper their roster is very solid, the long-term concerns around their goaltending do still exist, and their defense has always done a amazing job of minimizing scoring chances against, allowing Ash Sparks @DarkSpyro to win the S93 Greg Clegane Trophy."

So two kind of points here: Sparks is 500 TPE behind the top goalie in the league, and for their entire career been a good step behind the league's top goalies in terms of TPE, think Starter vs. Elite/Franchise potential. Also, there's a reason why GAA is barely taken into account for awards, given that it is a team stat that just gets attributed to the goalie. If you look at SV% (as close to only true pure goaltending stat we have), Sparks is still usually in the top half of the starting goalies, but never really in striking range of being considered the top goalie of the season. Overall, Sparks has had a good career, and has usually exceeded expectations.

S94 (so far): 0.926 (5th)
S93: 0.924 (6th)
S92: 0.930 (6th)
S91: 0.923 (12th)

S90: 0.921 (11th)
 

21 hours ago, AJW said:

"The concern with Malmo exists with their offense, in previous seasons the majority of Malmo’s offense has been driven by Jacob Stone @scoop, one of the league’s best defensemen."

 

• Malmo S94 Goal Leaders 
  • Jacob Stone: 17
  • Gregger McKeggegger: 16
  • Phillip Rave: 16

 

"However, with Malmo’s top forward being a pass-first player, this has been seen to reduce defensemen production which in turn likely reduces Malmo’s offense."

 

• Randy Bobandy (12G, 34A, 46P) and Viktor Jensen (10G, 28A, 38P) are indeed Pass-First players who are #1 and #2 in Malmo points this season. Jacob Stone (17G, 19A, 36P) is #3.
• Randy Bobandy is currently top 5 this season in assists.
• In 32 games played:
  • Malmo averages 3.4 Goals/Game.
  • Seattle leads the league in Goals/Game while averaging 3.8.

So, I do think that Malmo is an interesting case regarding the viability of top passing forwards. Typically, a elite passing forward will cause any defensive production to drop and in a hurry as a majority of defensemen points do come from assists. However, Stone is still scoring goals at a high rate, and I do think that this could be due to Malmo not really having a elite (1000+ TPA) scoring forward. Ironically, the statement does still hold true given that Stone's production has dropped off from previous seasons, given that their assist numbers are well under their previous pace.

Malmo has very well met expectations this season, and their offense has very well be clicking, and getting it done.

[DarkSpyro 971]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

S94 (so far): 0.926 (5th)
S93: 0.924 (6th)
S92: 0.930 (6th)
S91: 0.923 (12th)

S90: 0.921 (11th)

K let’s go click on the portal and see if these numbers are accurate, or if you’re talking shit again ☝ 
 

S94: 4th (Rask has played 18 games compared to everyone else’s 30+)

S93: 5th (nice try tho)

S92: 5th (…again)

S91: 12th (hey you actually got 1 right)

S90: 11th (funny how the only 2 you got right are the only 2 bad seasons)

S89: 2nd (of course you failed to mention this cuz it’s not on the portal anymore, but I still have the screenshot)

 

So no- you were off again Alex (of course).

Besides the 2 anomalies in S90 and S91, Sparks has been top 5 in save % every other season he’s been a starting goalie. 

[Alex 3,246]

1 hour ago, DarkSpyro said:

K let’s go click on the portal and see if these numbers are accurate, or if you’re talking shit again ☝ 
 

S94: 4th (Rask has played 18 games compared to everyone else’s 30+)

S93: 5th (nice try tho)

S92: 5th (…again)

S91: 12th (hey you actually got 1 right)

S90: 11th (funny how the only 2 you got right are the only 2 bad seasons)

S89: 2nd (of course you failed to mention this cuz it’s not on the portal anymore, but I still have the screenshot)

 

So no- you were off again Alex (of course).

Besides the 2 anomalies in S90 and S91, Sparks has been top 5 in save % every other season he’s been a starting goalie. 

Please use the index to check stats... Sparks had the 6th best SV% last season, and is 5th among starting goalies this season as Seattle is running a 1A/1B. I was off by one spot on S92, which I do apologize for. However, the point stands that for their entire career Sparks has been a good starting goalie, but never in that elite group. Also Sparks was third in S89, which was their best individual season compared to other goalies. My point is simple, Sparks while a good starting goalie, just isn't in the conversation as a top goalie. It's nothing personal, I try to just look at stats/numbers. 

 

Given how having a strong goalie is crucial to playoff success as has been seen in just about every season since S84, it's hard to have Malmo as a favourite to compete against top teams. While back-to-back Victory cups is impressive and a great feat, the lack of playoff success speaks volumes. Could Malmo compete and win the cup? Yes, Sparks is a solid enough goalie and the rest of the roster is very good and in the top 5 in the league.

[Alex 3,246]

20 minutes ago, Alex said:

Please use the index to check stats... Sparks had the 6th best SV% last season, and is 5th among starting goalies this season as Seattle is running a 1A/1B. I was off by one spot on S92, which I do apologize for. However, the point stands that for their entire career Sparks has been a good starting goalie, but never in that elite group. Also Sparks was third in S89, which was their best individual season compared to other goalies. My point is simple, Sparks while a good starting goalie, just isn't in the conversation as a top goalie. It's nothing personal, I try to just look at stats/numbers. Goaltending predictions for VSN are almost entirely based off of TPA, which doesn't really tell the full story, but is all we really have to go off of for the position.

 

Given how having a strong goalie is crucial to playoff success as has been seen in just about every season since S84, it's hard to have Malmo as a favourite to compete against top teams. While back-to-back Victory cups is impressive and a great feat, the lack of playoff success speaks volumes. Could Malmo compete and win the cup? Yes, Sparks is a solid enough goalie and the rest of the roster is very good and in the top 5 in the league.

 

[jacobcarson877 2,559]

I was also very hesitant about Malmo's roster construction this season, for essentially all the same reasons Alex was.

With that being said, it's always nice to find out you don't know something about STHS!

Excited to keep the fight going the rest of the season, and may the best team come 2nd, so that they can challenge for the Cup! Victory Cup curse and all that is.

[N0HBDY 1,128]

This article fails to mention Lachlan Summers once, coincidence?

[tcookie 927]

5 hours ago, Alex said:

Sparks while a good starting goalie, just isn't in the conversation as a top goalie. It's nothing personal, I try to just look at stats/numbers. 

 

I don't personally want to get too much into dunking on VSN etc. but yeah Sparks seems to be pretty generally disrespected, and I get when making predictions you are going to expect higher TPE/TPA goalies to perform better, but in terms of raw numbers, well:

 

I compiled stats in starter years for the goalies that have stuck out to me as "big names" since I created Rave & have at least 6 seasons as starters under their belts (for goalies still active in S94, I pro-rated them to 64 games; except Rask, pro-rated to 48 games since he won't get to 64... maybe I should have just done 36 since they seem to be going 50/50). And maybe I should have just taken just last 6 seasons or something because there are some lousy early career years for some - well, Rask in particular, I actually don't think the rest strayed THAT far from their career averages - but I think it's hard to conclude anyone has separated themselves much from Sparks, outside of Lachlan Summers, who is just WAY ahead of everyone else.

 

 

Sparks has the best GAA, basically mid-pack SV%, probably the best W/L record, has basically caught all the 7+ year starters in shutouts, and only Summers and Murdock have more top-5 seasons in SV%. There are some guys with 2s and 3s that Sparks only has one of, but they also generally have a lot more seasons in the bottom half of the league.

 

 

Edited June 15 by tcookie

[Alex 3,246]

16 minutes ago, N0HBDY said:

This article fails to mention Lachlan Summers once, coincidence?

Probably because they are the top goalie in the league and their numbers completely dwarf Sparks...

[Alex 3,246]

7 minutes ago, tcookie said:

 

I don't personally want to get too much into dunking on VSN etc. but yeah Sparks is pretty generally disrespected, and I get when making predictions you are going to expect higher TPE goalies to perform better, but in terms of raw numbers, well:

 

I compiled stats in starter years for the goalies that have stuck out to me as "big names" since I created Rave & have at least 6 seasons as starters under their belts (for goalies still active in S94, I pro-rated them to 64 games; except Rask, pro-rated to 48 games since he won't get to 64... maybe I should have just done 36 since they seem to be going 50/50). And maybe I should have just taken just last 6 seasons or something because there are some lousy early career years for some - well, Rask in particular, I actually don't think the rest strayed THAT far from their career averages - but I think it's hard to conclude anyone has separated themselves much from Sparks, outside of Lachlan Summers, who is just WAY ahead of everyone else.

 

 

Sparks has the best GAA, basically mid-pack SV%, probably the best W/L record, has basically caught all the 7+ year starters in shutouts, and only Summers and Murdock have more top-5 seasons in SV%. There are some guys with 2s and 3s that Sparks only has one of, but they also generally have a lot more seasons in the bottom half of the league.

 

disclaimer, it is very possible that I miscounted some SV% placements by a spot or two somewhere

 

 

There's one main issue with your numbers here, specifically that they include seasons where starting goalies weren't in their prime, while ONLY including Sparks' prime seasons. While this is in part due to getting buried in Seattle prior to the Malmo trade, it only paints a small part of the picture.

 

Also, BASED OFF OF TPE, WHICH IS HOW THE PREDICTIONS HAVE TO BE MADE, SPARKS IS STILL ONLY THE 9TH BEST GOALIE IN THE LEAGUE! While they typically do over perform their ranking, as a unbiased source that makes their rankings strictly from roster composition it's nearly impossible to put much weight behind them. Given how unpredictable STHS really is, could Sparks have a great season? yes. Do the underlying numbers lead towards that, conclusion? no. Malmo's roster for the most part is built to shelter Sparks, they have always had a top defensive group, and are typically one of the better offensive teams.

 

While, there is not much to go off of for goalies, SV% is really all we can use, which does help Sparks' case as a top goalie in the league. However, they have never truly been in the conversation of elite goalies/franchise players from a completely objective standpoint.

[tcookie 927]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

There's one main issue with your numbers here, specifically that they include seasons where starting goalies weren't in their prime, while ONLY including Sparks' prime seasons. While this is in part due to getting buried in Seattle prior to the Malmo trade, it only paints a small part of the picture.

 

Also, BASED OFF OF TPE, WHICH IS HOW THE PREDICTIONS HAVE TO BE MADE, SPARKS IS STILL ONLY THE 9TH BEST GOALIE IN THE LEAGUE! While they typically do over perform their ranking, as a unbiased source that makes their rankings strictly from roster composition it's nearly impossible to put much weight behind them. Given how unpredictable STHS really is, could Sparks have a great season? yes. Do the underlying numbers lead towards that, conclusion? no. Malmo's roster for the most part is built to shelter Sparks, they have always had a top defensive group, and are typically one of the better offensive teams.

 

While, there is not much to go off of for goalies, SV% is really all we can use, which does help Sparks' case as a top goalie in the league. However, they have never truly been in the conversation of elite goalies/franchise players from a completely objective standpoint.

 

Agreed, 100%, and I acknowledged both of those things in my post:

 

1 hour ago, tcookie said:

I don't personally want to get too much into dunking on VSN etc. but yeah Sparks seems to be pretty generally disrespected, and I get when making predictions you are going to expect higher TPE/TPA goalies to perform better, but in terms of raw numbers, well:

 

I compiled stats in starter years for the goalies that have stuck out to me as "big names" since I created Rave & have at least 6 seasons as starters under their belts (for goalies still active in S94, I pro-rated them to 64 games; except Rask, pro-rated to 48 games since he won't get to 64... maybe I should have just done 36 since they seem to be going 50/50). And maybe I should have just taken just last 6 seasons or something because there are some lousy early career years for some - well, Rask in particular, I actually don't think the rest strayed THAT far from their career averages - but I think it's hard to conclude anyone has separated themselves much from Sparks, outside of Lachlan Summers, who is just WAY ahead of everyone else.

 

And again, I'm not here to dunk on VSN or anything of the like. It's good for the league to have that content, nobody is ever going to completely agree with anyone else's predictions anyway, and whenever you put predictions out you're going to be right sometimes and wrong others. I'm just happy my team is doing well. I am in this thread for the discussion about Sparks' position as a goalie in the league over the last few years, and I think he has taken some undeserved shots & is often being underrated.

 

Anyway, what the heck. I should have done either last 6 seasons or best 6 consecutive seasons in the first place, so let's do it. Best 6 consecutive seasons:

 

 

I mentioned in my post as well that apart from Rask, it actually doesn't really help anyone much to throw those seasons away. It does help Castle and Tucker some too. It in fact actually takes an above-career-average season away from Summers and Murdock, and Murdock not having that season actually makes Sparks look better on my list. Art Vandelay loses a bad season, but also loses two good ones, although it does make his W/L record look WAY better. It brings the general SV% very slightly up, but the end result is not much different. Everyone outside of Summers is in the exact same range. I will also note that Merome Dilson hasn't completed enough of his career to fairly compare to these guys, since he should have two more prime years coming up yet, so it's a credit to him I even thought to include him on the list.

 

These are the best goalies in the last 10 seasons or so of VHL hockey, and the numbers tell us Sparks absolutely is in the conversation with anyone not named Lachlan Summers. It seems to me that, "nothing personal, I just try to look at stats/numbers" and "Malmo's roster for the most part is built to shelter Sparks, they have always had a top defensive group, and are typically one of the better offensive teams," are kind of contradictory statements. If you want to look at stats/numbers, Sparks is undeniably there. If you want to mention Malmo throwing stacked teams out there all the time to protect him, you aren't really talking about a "completely objective standpoint" or what the stats/numbers say anymore. Now that discussion is not something I have been around the league long enough since my return to participate in. But this is what the numbers say, so if you want completely objective, here it is.

Edited June 15 by tcookie

[N0HBDY 1,128]

Where did this Ash Sparks cult come from?!

 

If y’all are gonna be this mad now where were you during award seasons  

 

fighting a useless battle…

 

VSN is constantly wrong so idk why we’re holding them to a legitimate media source expectation, they’re members that know no more than any other regular member. Even this article is wrong.

 

Ash Sparks has been a very reliable goaltender through the seasons imo, however they’ve only performed well enough for one INDIVIDUAL (not team) award which was because they had the lowest GAA for the Clegane, which is mostly a team award according to some.

 

I will absolutely argue that sparks has been a good goalie, are they hof worthy, no, but not like anyone here is arguing that. I think in this time period of the VHL, goalie stats are overinflated and people have yet to realize/accept that. NHL goalies play less games than VHL goalies, NHL goalies hardly ever average a .920 sv% each season. VHL goalies have at least 5 or so each season and throughout their career. Sparks has done it every season and has  near nothing to show for it. 

Edited June 16 by N0HBDY

[tcookie 927]

37 minutes ago, N0HBDY said:

Where did this Ash Sparks cult come from?!

 

If y’all are gonna be this mad now where were you during award seasons  

 

fighting a useless battle…

 

VSN is constantly wrong so idk why we’re holding them to a legitimate media source expectation, they’re members that know no more than any other regular member. Even this article is wrong.

 

Ash Sparks has been a very reliable goaltender through the seasons imo, however they’ve only performed well enough for one INDIVIDUAL (not team) award which was because they had the lowest GAA for the Clegane, which is mostly a team award according to some.

 

I will absolutely argue that sparks has been a good goalie, are they hof worthy, no, but not like anyone here is arguing that. I think in this time period of the VHL, goalie stats are overinflated and people have yet to realize/accept that. NHL goalies play less games than VHL goalies, NHL goalies hardly ever average a .920 sv% each season. VHL goalies have at least 5 or so each season and throughout their career. Sparks has done it every season and has  near nothing to show for it. 

 

 I find these kinds of discussions interesting. Back when I was with VSN on my first player, the Top 75 in S75 was my favourite project I worked on in the league. No anger here. Digging into the numbers is fun.

 

VHL SV% is completely messed up, yup. Real problem is there are an extremely unrealistic number of shots, but that's because 95% of the league is shoot-first players, so what can ya do.

Edited June 16 by tcookie

[AJW 2,192]

1 hour ago, N0HBDY said:

Where did this Ash Sparks cult come from?!

 

If y’all are gonna be this mad now where were you during award seasons  

 

fighting a useless battle…

 

VSN is constantly wrong so idk why we’re holding them to a legitimate media source expectation, they’re members that know no more than any other regular member. Even this article is wrong.

 

Ash Sparks has been a very reliable goaltender through the seasons imo, however they’ve only performed well enough for one INDIVIDUAL (not team) award which was because they had the lowest GAA for the Clegane, which is mostly a team award according to some.

 

I will absolutely argue that sparks has been a good goalie, are they hof worthy, no, but not like anyone here is arguing that. I think in this time period of the VHL, goalie stats are overinflated and people have yet to realize/accept that. NHL goalies play less games than VHL goalies, NHL goalies hardly ever average a .920 sv% each season. VHL goalies have at least 5 or so each season and throughout their career. Sparks has done it every season and has  near nothing to show for it. 

No anger here, not holding anyone to any expectations, opinions are all opinions of course. I just wanted to write a good media with some fire behind it  Glad to see lots of eyes got a hold of it

[LucyXpher 1,575]

I’m just here for the Ash Sparks cult.  Ash Sparks is amazing  and I love a good cult.

Edited June 16 by LucyXpher