Calculating the Extent To Which I Have Been Punk'd By VHL Administration

[Gustav 6,468]

2024 is the fourth year in a row that the league has done its 12-day donation drive. Having been in the league since before 12 Days of Christmas was a thing, I'm proud to say that I've contributed to the annual charity every year we've run it, and that I really appreciate that the league has (allegedly) put our money to a good use.

 

So why haven't I won anything yet?

 

You see, out of every iteration of five winners, then five winners again, then three winners, then one winner, across four separate tiers of winning, exactly zero of the names drawn have been mine. Heck, the first year even featured ten winners in that first bracket, a fact that I'm sure the league hoped no one would notice when they cut that in half. It's because of this that I started my posting in this year's holiday threads with a complaint that the blue team was purposely avoiding giving me prizes, presumably because they hate me.

 

I decided I'd like to see what I could do to analyze that, so I went back to every previous holiday drive and found out:

• How many people had replied to each day's thread
• Whether I myself had entered in that drawing by replying to that thread

 

...and I did what I do best and put it in a spreadsheet that calculates the probability over time that I would have won at least one of the drawings up to this point, by taking that number for each tier of each drive and factoring in bonus draws from donation and the number of winners in each tier. What I found was:

• Surprisingly, there was already at least a 10% chance that I would have won in the very first tier ever, based on the fact that there were 10 winners in that tier.
• There was approximately a 15% chance that I would have won something in 2021 overall.
• By the end of 2022, that number grew to a 28% chance that across the first two years, I would have won something at some point.
• By the end of 2023, I had just over a 40% chance of having won anything at all across those three years.

 

So, it still isn't out of the question that I've lost year after year by chance. Should I not win anything this year, though, my cumulative chance will likely break 50%--meaning that it will have become more likely than not that I would have taken a prize.

 

So I'm not being cheated yet, but keep an eye out for all I might have to say next year if history repeats itself.

[Daniel Janser 2,213]

In German there is a saying which is 'Pech im Spiel, Glück in der Liebe' which roughly translates to 'Bad luck gambling equals to good luck in your love live'.

 

Given by the evidence laid before me and assuming that saying are always right, I struggle to feel sorry for you. 

 

 

[Ahma 1,443]

I haven't won anything yet either and I'm pretty sure I've always participated too! 

[Beketov 9,095]

4 hours ago, Gustav said:

You see, out of every iteration of five winners, then five winners again, then three winners, then one winner, across four separate tiers of winning, exactly zero of the names drawn have been mine.

Same bro… and yet somehow every year there seems to be at least 1, if not more, names that are drawn multiple times so I need to go back and re-draw the lower tiers.

 

random.org has it in for us, I assure you I’m in the same boat.

[jacobcarson877 2,559]

The latest copy of EA NHL that I own is from the Christmas raffle!

[Spartan 4,530]

Nerd

[Gustav 6,468]

4 hours ago, Beketov said:

Same bro… and yet somehow every year there seems to be at least 1, if not more, names that are drawn multiple times so I need to go back and re-draw the lower tiers.

 

random.org has it in for us, I assure you I’m in the same boat.

I’ll stop short of accusing random.org of being wrong—originally, Apple’s “shuffle” feature was entirely random and they had to change it because people assumed that some sequences of songs that it randomly generated were wrong. 
 

BUT I use it all the time for Town of Salem and I have to say that if I were to accept everything it gave me, we would have multiple roles with 3+ people playing then just about every time. I have no problem with some duplicates, but I almost always have to do some rerolling if something overloads. 
 

I trust their reasoning that it’s based on atmospheric noise and that that’s random, but I do wonder if it’s pulling from some data set where the noise at certain points hangs around a specific level that leads to it picking that level a lot. Obviously, random means that it will repeat by chance too, but personal experience has me wondering how much it should. 
 

It’s all just speculation; overall it works fine for me. So maybe you guys are taking me out of the list or something. 

[BOOM 8,809]

On 12/19/2024 at 7:08 PM, Daniel Janser said:

In German there is a saying which is 'Pech im Spiel, Glück in der Liebe' which roughly translates to 'Bad luck gambling equals to good luck in your love live'.

 

Given by the evidence laid before me and assuming that saying are always right, I struggle to feel sorry for you. 

 

 

 

That's super weird, because in Australian there is a saying, "Bad luck in gambling equals to good luck in your love life", which roughly translates to "Pech im Spiel, Glück in der Liebe".

[Daniel Janser 2,213]

30 minutes ago, BOOM said:

 

That's super weird, because in Australian there is a saying, "Bad luck in gambling equals to good luck in your love life", which roughly translates to "Pech im Spiel, Glück in der Liebe".

I knew a country which coined the term 'we are not here to fuck spiders' must be a country full of poets...

[BOOM 8,809]

We are very lyrical.