Claimed:European Conference: The Gauntlet [Final 6/6]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,890]

 

European Conference: The Gauntlet

 

Certainly, in the current VHL standings, there are close fights across the board. Within Quebec City alone, the Meute are currently contending with Calgary for the North American Conference title, and with multiple European teams for the best record in the league. As we come down the stretch, however, I think it’s safe to say that the fight for the European number one seed is the biggest battle, with three teams potentially in the running.

 

There’s an odd trend that has occurred in the 14 seasons since VHL expansion, however—that last sentence could have been written about the European Conference a number of times. In fact, in the 13 seasons immediately preceding Season 44, the European Conference champion and third place have been separated by 15 points or less six times. This season is likely to make it seven, half the time. In North America? Not only will New York nor Seattle challenge Calgary/Quebec this season, it hasn’t happened at all, not once.

 

Smallest point differentials between first and third, post-expansion

1. S38 European – 5 points
2. S40 European – 6 points
3. S39 European – 8 points
4. S41 European – 9 points
5. S37 European – 14 points
6. S32 European – 15 points
7. S34 North American – 16 points

There could be any number of reasons for this small point differential. It could be that the North American Conference has more teams willing to bottom out for draft picks, resulting in a few power teams and more rebuilding squads. It could also be that the North American Conference has more first place power teams, while Europe has more parity.

 

What you cannot say, though, is that there are a few teams constantly on top in Europe. Even in that incredible Season 37 to Season 41 run, in which first and third place in Europe were separated by 14 points or less each year, each European team was represented in the playoffs at least twice.

 

 

Now, let’s compare that to the North American Conference during those same seasons.

 

 

The lack of a close first, second, third race here can be attributed to a number of factors. Of course, the New York dynasty did no favors to a close race—no single VHL team finished within 9 points of New York in the final standings these years, let alone a close conference race. Second of all, there simply wasn’t parity between the second and third slots either, as the third place team finished no closer than 8 points to second place in any of these seasons.

 

It’s worth mentioning, though, that there were only two playoff races of note during these five seasons, and both occurred in North America. In Season 37, the Seattle Bears beat out the soon-to-be-dynasty New York squad by just one point for the playoffs. In Season 41, meanwhile, the Calgary Wranglers beat out the Toronto Legion by just 5 points for the playoffs. In that span, the closest margin between third and fourth in the European Conference was Season 39, where Riga beat Cologne by 19 points.

 

So, what does this all mean?

 

Honestly, from a stats perspective, it could be nothing than noise and a small sample size. However, in practicality, it signals a difference in the way franchises are run between the North American and European Conferences. Typically, in North America, if a team is not the clear No. 1 or No. 2 team, they tend to push for a rebuild, or not give up assets to try and win it all. The mid-30’s Seattle team is one example: They never gave up young assets, even when it would have pushed them to the top of the conference. The recent Toronto squad is another example: The Legion chose to rebuild for a sustained dynasty rather than going all-in for one or two years.

 

European squads, meanwhile, have shown more of a tendency to “keep up with the Joneses.” You don’t need to look past recent times to see that phenomenon in action; just look at the trades that Cologne, Stockholm, and Davos have all made to try and add more firepower before the postseason. European teams tend to believe that, as long as they make the playoffs, they have a shot. And considering the Cologne has gone to the finals each of the past two seasons while not having the best record in the conference, that may be a realistic view.

[Victor 10,943]

This is some good shit.

Those back-to-back-to-back Vasteras vs Riga, Riga vs Davos seasons were fun.

[Devise 4,475]

Great article. I think there is some merit to the idea that if you have a solid playoff team you can still win regardless of how you end up in the playoffs. While the regular season standings do sometimes reflect the actual strength of a team, good teams still struggle against bad teams in the regular season. 

 

There is also the cross conference stuff that plays a factor as well. In the regular season a team in Europe who is good enough to win their conference in the playoffs only has to play the "stud" number one team in NA 8 times. Let's say that stud team during your sample years was NY. If NY beats this Europe team 6 out of 8 and looks great against them it pushes the Europe team worse in standings. But if NY fails to make the Finals and the Europe team does against a team they did better against? They could win the cup.

 

Match ups play an interesting role tbh. 

[Corco 1,242]

This is some good shit.

Those back-to-back-to-back Vasteras vs Riga, Riga vs Davos seasons were fun.

hahaha jk bring them back already

Edited August 3, 2015 by Corco

[boubabi 4,725]

EU GMs > NA GMs

[Tylar 219]

Content: 3/3 - Love all the information and graphs! Another interesting article by you as per usual. I wish I was following the VHL to actually care about the race but nonetheless it looks like a great race that will go down the the wire, which is always exciting!

Grammar: 2/2 - great

Appearance: 1/1 - Looks great, and I love your use of the graphs!

Overall: 6/6

[CoachReilly 688]

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