The Beat

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

Reply Hazy, Try Again

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on HC Davos Dynamo – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

To quote the immortal Bone Thugs-n-Harmony, HC Davos Dynamo have reached Tha Crossroads. Long expected to be the major rivalry for seasons to come following the Season 42 draft, Stockholm and Davos have now combined for exact zero finals appearances in the past five seasons. And with Helsinki coming on strong, Riga looking to make another run, and Cologne with some young players in the wings, it’s no guarantee that it will happen again.

That’s what makes the current Davos offseason... odd, to say the least. By letting many free agents go, it seems that Stockholm is committing to rebuilding. Davos, however, is not committing one way or the other. Faraday is currently a free agent, and Sundberg retired, leaving the team with only four forwards. They have not made any move to remedy this – as of the writing of this article, 20 hours after free agency opened, the Dynamo have not offered a contract to anyone, not even Faraday.

And yet, the team does have key pieces that don’t hit hard depreciation for another couple of seasons. There are certainly worse pieces to build around than McJustice, Sinclair and Valmount. So which way should Davos go, rebuild or retool? We offer up three pros and three cons for each.

To Re-Build

1. Timing – Stockholm is currently rebuilding, but otherwise in the European Conference, Helsinki, Riga and Cologne seem to be holding firm. Especially as Riga is getting older, if Davos wants to gear up for another run, the time might be now to stockpile picks. In particular, Sinclair is probably at the peak of his trade value; he has a full four seasons left, making him valuable to teams such as Seattle or Toronto, and his current status as the goalie with the second-most TPE in the league would make him more worthwhile than other options to contenders like New York and Riga.

2. Draft Picks – Davos already has first round selections from Cologne and Helsinki next year in addition to their own selection; unless Riga and Stockholm are the two teams to miss the European playoffs, that’s at least one guaranteed lottery selection right there. However, historically, teams have had much more success hoarding picks and building around a lot of draftees at one time (i.e. current Helsinki) than reloading and trying to straddle two eras (i.e. current Calgary). If Davos were to go the more failsafe route and build around those S47 picks, they will need more picks to run with.

3. Shake-up – Is change for the sake of change a bad thing? There are multiple ways to look at it. The Toronto teams with Remy LeBeau stuck it out through the bad times, and they were eventually rewarded with a Cup. The Seattle teams during that time period, though, never made a change and didn’t even get a Finals birth. Anything can happen once you hit the playoffs, and indeed, Davos did have an opening round sweep this year. But winning will likely mean three rounds of excellent hockey, and there is no guarantee that the team as currently constructed can complete two, let alone three, rounds. Tearing it down and starting over again could simply be preferable to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks.

To Re-Tool

1. The Build – Although Helsinki should likely be considered the favorite in Europe for the next couple of seasons, there’s also a reasonable argument to make that this is the season Davos has been building for all along. McJustice and Sinclair are both entering their fifth seasons, the maximum TPE earning slot before depreciation hits. With all that TPE, depreciation isn’t going to affect Richardson at all, and Valmount in his second season certainly looks ready to replace the departing Faraday. Add in $6.5M in cap space for a preseason and/or deadline deal to fill holes, and this may be the best chance Davos has for a while.

2. The Challengers – The favorite this upcoming season is Helsinki. Past Helsinki, the favorite is... well, that’s a good question, isn’t it? Calgary still has Wingate and is going hard after free agents, but Koenig may be gone and the team’s getting older. Depreciation severely hurts Riga’s main stars in Thomassen and Hunter. Even if New York does end up with Campbell, that’s still a downgrade from retiring Shaw winner Mikaelson. And nobody else is making a move without some serious help. Davos does have holes, but they’re not necessarily bigger ones than most other VHL teams.

3. Have Cake and Eat It Too – Coach Reilly is no fool; he saw how the Davos dynasty of the mid-30s was constructed. The team was built off the back of young guns Lennox Moher, Matt Bentley and others, but the team also relied on older veterans such as Thomas Landry, Jarkko Olsen and Sergey Brovalenko. A similar strategy could be in play with those aforementioned three S47 firsts; just as players like Valmount become expensive, let the older guys go and restock with young, fresh talent that doesn’t kill the cap. It’s a risky way to try and win it all, sure, but it maintains success in a league where the playoffs seem more of a crapshoot than ever before.

[BOOM 8,435]

That sir, is a fucking good read.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

This is very long, you could even split into two articles if you wanted. If you need me to edit it down at all, let me know.

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Reign on Me

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

The Titans are the defending champions, the Wranglers are gearing up for one final run, the Americans signed the most controversial free agent of the offseason, the Dynamo signed the best free agent of the offseason, and the Vikings are trying to win a cup with four players and a can of soup. And yet, none of these teams are the most interesting team to watch this season. That would be the Riga Reign.

Every team in the league seems to have a predetermined narrative, yet for the Riga Reign, that’s hard to pin down. They would seem to be the aging team striving for one last cup, but two of their main contributors are a forward in the first half of his career (McQueen) and a goalie on a rookie contract (Gow). They presumably are the time that has gone through a rebuild towards a cup, yet not a single top five draft pick from the past three seasons is currently on the team. They would seem to be an afterthought in the European Conference, yet there’s a reasonable argument that can be made for them to win it all.

In my mind, there are three main reasons to watch the Reign this season:

1. Broken Aksel: Every season, there seems to be a top flight player that hasn’t quite reached the pinnacle with a championship, and the past couple of years, ex-Meute players have dominated the list. In S44, it was the retiring Boychuk. In S45, it was the retiring Wolf. And this year, it’s the remaining star of that Meute squad, Aksel Thomassen. While he will not be updating for the rest of the season, focusing instead on predicted No. 1 draft pick John Sleeman, the fact remains that Thomassen starts the season with the third-most TPE of any player in the VHL at 1,078. But while the two people ahead of him (O’Malley and Richardson) have cups, Thomassen does not. With a particularly strong final season and a Cup, though, Thomassen may be able to make a late push for the Hall of Fame.

2. Gow Power: In Season 45, there were 10 full-time goalies that played at least 63 games. David Blind and his roughly 100 TPE had the lowest save percentage at .901. Rookie Ariel Weinstein, who started the season right at the VHL/VHLM threshold was ninth at .904. Computer SEA G was… sixth, at .911, strangely enough. It was Gow, the former commissioner and GM of the Reign, who came in eighth overall with a .905 percentage in his second season. Luckily, the Riga defense was able to limit the damage – Gow faced the second-least shots among league starters – but that doesn’t fly in the playoffs. Riga getting swept and Gow having an .870 save percentage in the S45 playoffs attests to that. The offense will keep up its end of the bargain, but will Gow?

3. Chance for Glory: All told, the European Conference is in a state of flux. Last season, all five teams in the conference had a legitimate chance for the playoffs. This year, it’s possible that Cologne and Stockholm’s contention windows are closed. And in the next two seasons, it’s likely that Riga and Davos won’t be far behind. I’m expecting some scrambling at the trade deadline if and when it becomes clear that this may be the last chance for one of these teams to make a legitimate run, especially as Helsinki only becomes stronger in S47. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big name (from Stockholm?) join Riga at the deadline if the cap can be made to work, especially as the team still has its own S47 first as a bargaining chip.

Still not convinced? Don’t take it from me: We interviewed GM Steve Smeall before the start of the season to get his thoughts on the team.

The Beat: Following the team's defeat against Davos last playoffs, what was the general team mindset? Was there any thoughts of blowing it up, or was going for it all again always in the cards?

Steve Smeall: Disappointment. We knew that it was a long shot to make a run for the Championship, but to be swept out of the first round was never in our minds. After that series loss and Denis telling me that he would not re-sign for Riga, there was a lot of flirting with rebuilding. I think any GM would have considered it at that point. The team isn't a very vocal one and our star player, Thomassen, is in his final season.

Two things made me change my mind. One, the VHL market being as the market always is, wasn't offering much in return for my squad. I'll admit that I'm a stubborn GM, so I wasn't going to swap players for pennies. When I thought of an idea to move my own player down to defense to support Kowalski, that offered up a space on the forward line.

Denis telling Riga he wouldn't re-sign with us was actually something that helped the team more than anything, and then we went on to Free Agency...

TB: Riga signed James Faraday right before the start of the season for his final year. What was your pitch to him, and what do you expect from him this year?

SS: In Free Agency I had two major targets in Faraday and Koenig. Both players are massively talented and offered the boost to our offense that we needed. I also looked at a couple others, but those offers would've been retracted upon either Faraday/Koenig signing.

While I like Koenig as much as everyone else, my main target was Faraday. He's going into his last season and is more cap friendly than Koenig. So I made a wild pitch to Higgins. I sent him a wall of text, explaining my plan for the season (Hunter going to defense, who'd be with him on the top line, etc.) and I didn't hear back from him. Riga and I did voice our interest wherever we could though, reminding him how much we wanted him with the Reign. It worked. We got our man and we knew that it was time to really push for it.

We need Faraday and Thomassen to find immediate chemistry. In this crazy European conference we can't even afford to give up the early few games to our rivals. I fully expect Faraday to be one of the top scorers of this team and help lead the offense. He needs to be if we're going for it in the final season for both him and Thomassen.

TB: In his first two VHL seasons, Bernie Gow has struggled, to say the least. What gives you the confidence that he can be the goalie for a championship-caliber team?

SS: Gow's performance in the playoffs was disappointing, but that's the beast of being a goalie in this game. Sometimes, things just don't go your way. I can relate to that for sure...

In the regular season I thought Gow was a reliable body in the crease though, especially with the practice hours that he was at during those games. Gow is also part of the Flyersfan player agency, someone who bleeds orange at this point. While Gow has taken a step back to pension, I know that he will do whatever he can to help the team.

With that said, while Gow is still young, I believe that the talent in front of him can handle a majority of the issues on the ice. Gow will be there when we need him to be to stop whatever gets through.

TB: The past few seasons, Riga hasn't had the board publicity of some other VHL teams. Who is one Reign player the rest of the league is sleeping on now, but will know by the end of the season?

SS: Yeah, that's not something that comes as a surprise to me. I was hoping to build the publicity, so to speak, for this season. The Faraday signing plays a role in that as well.

While most of the team is well known around the boards now, despite us being pretty quiet, I think there is someone who does fit the bill here. Paramoise has been a member who has been vocal around the forums in somewhat and a mainstay of the league for quite some time. Pettyfer has been a go-to core player of the team and will be getting a solid chance to play alongside some greats of the league now.

Pettyfer has always wanted to make a statement in the post-season and regular season, and I see more of a voice and more production coming from Petty for sure.

TB: The European Conference is tough once again this year. For you personally as GM, does it change your approach knowing that year in and year out, GMs are going for it all? Why or why not?

SS: It'd be boring if the European Conference wasn't as tough as it is!

It's part of why this job is so fun right now, because I know that everyone in my conference is putting in the work to be just as good and better than Riga. With the recent addition of greg to the Euro staff, this conference is going to be a challenge every season, that's for sure.

It does change the approach because I know I have to be on the top of my game every single time I'm having trade discussions or planning moves for the team, because any of these guys will be looking for a way to counter it, etc. There's obviously a time that Riga and I will have to step back and let other teams have their moment with the conference and league, but that's not the case this season...

It's Riga's time.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

Face/Off

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

As of the writing of this article, the Riga Reign sit at 12-4-0. That’s a more than solid record, good for third overall in the VHL and right in the thick of the European Conference hunt. With a +15 goal differential as well, it’s not like the Reign’s record is a fluke.

And yet, despite the top record, none of the Reign players are particularly lighting up the league leader charts. Aksel Thomassen has a team-leading 12 goals in 16 games, but that’s only good for tied for sixth place, alongside Benjamin Zeptenbergs of Quebec. James Faraday’s 14 assists places him only eighth in the league. Kurtis Hunter is fourth in defenseman points; hard hitter Bronson Faux is still behind Lord Karnage in hits. And don’t even try and look at the goalie stats for Bernie Gow.

However, there is one spot where the Riga Reign happen to be dominating: face-offs. Thomassen has won 67.01% of his face-offs so far this season, leading the league by almost two full percentage points. Bronson Faux, meanwhile, is fifth in the league at 61.81%, while Rafael Pettyfer is at 59.89% and seventh place himself. Overall, the Reign are winning 61.45% of their face-offs in their first 16 games; the next closest team is Davos at 58.29%. (For fun, the Bears are winning less than 30% of all face-offs.)

That got me thinking: What is the best face-off percentage in the expansion era, and how have face-off winners fared historically? Here are the 15 face-off team winners since Season 31:

Key: S##: Team – FO% (Final Season Result)

S31: Calgary Wranglers – 61% (Conference Finals Exit)

S32: New York Americans – 63% (VHL Champions)

S33: New York Americans – 60.66% (VHL Finals Exit)

S34: New York Americans – 61% (First Round Exit)

S35: Helsinki Titans – 61% (VHL Finals Exit)

S36: Helsinki Titans – 60.65% (Conference Finals Exit)

S37: HC Davos Dynamo – 61.84% (VHL Finals Exit)

S38: Riga Reign – 60.67% (Conference Finals Exit)

S39: HC Davos Dynamo – 60.24% (VHL Finals Exit)

S40: New York Americans – 59.80% (VHL Finals Exit)

S41: Helsinki Titans – 58.12% (Conference Finals Exit)

S42: Quebec City Meute – 58.13% (VHL Finals Exit)

S43: Quebec City Meute – 60.07% (Conference Finals Exit)

S44: Stockholm Vikings – 59.86% (Conference Finals Exit)

S45: HC Davos Dynamo – 57.45% (Conference Finals Exit)

 

These numbers are interesting to me, and they tell me three main things that can apply to the Reign:

1. Riga’s 61.45% figure might actually be sustainable.

The Reign’s face-off percentage would be the second-highest in the expansion era, and the highest since Season 32. However, given the general range of league-winning figures, 61.45% doesn’t actually seem outrageous. It also helps that one of the strongest and most consistent face-off teams in the past ten seasons was the S42-S43 Quebec City Meute… which also feature Aksel Thomassen as their first line center. Furthermore, their schedule so far has been slightly easy, but not exceptionally so – the team has played 7 of its 16 games against other teams currently in playoff position, and three of the other games were against a Stockholm team that has two active centers.

2. Teams that win the league in face-offs do well…

This makes sense. One of the final attributes that sees TPE dumped into it is face-offs, generally because scoring, passing, defense and other attributes are better influencers of the game. Thus, when a team has a high face-off figure, it’s a given that it also has one, if not two or three, offensive players at high TPE. As you may notice, every single team that led the league in face-off percentage also went on to the playoffs. And of those 15 teams, 14 of them even made it to the conference finals, with the lone exception being the S34 Americans team that lost in seven games in the first round.

3. … but they don’t do too well.

This is the part that’s interesting to me: Although all 15 of the face-off winners made the conference finals, exactly one actually won the championship, and that was all the way back in Season 32 (with a New York team that many did not expect to win it all). For certain, part of this may be random chance; teams like the late-30s Dynamo and the S42-S43 Meute could have reasonably been seen as the favorites to win the championship before the postseason started. It does suggest to me, however, that face-off percentage is not a determining factor for winning it all, and Cup-caliber teams that aren’t necessarily overloaded on TPE are better off having second-line centers and wingers focus on other attributes before working on face-offs.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

Hunting for Hunter

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

Typically, when a top-flight player changes positions, it follows one common trend: an inactive forward is being changed to defense, or an overly active defenseman gets moved to forward to better help the team. It’s a very rare thing for an active forward to willingly move to defense. In the past ten seasons, we’ve had Logan Laich moved by his own agency in Cologne, and... that’s really about it.

That’s what makes Kurtis Hunter’s move to defense this past offseason so interesting. Similarly to Laich, he was moved by his own player agency, the GM of the team. Unlike Laich, though, Hunter has had a good deal of success: particularly in the Season 43 World Cup with Western Europe, and also finishing with 85 points (sixth among right wingers) last season.

Almost halfway into the season, has Hunter actually helped the team? With Riga sitting tops in the league, it would sure seem that way. But we decided to take a deeper dive into the stats to determine his effectiveness.

Take a Pass

With James Faraday and Rafael Pettyfer, two pure scorers, now on the first line to pair with the well-rounded Aksel Thomassen, Hunter’s main role on the offensive side of the ball was always going to be best utilized as a facilitator. However, his current build doesn’t exactly lend itself to being used in that way; Hunter has 94 scoring, while only 90 passing, meaning that he’ll shoot from the blue line more often than other defenseman. This has been reflected in his stats; his seven goals are ok, but not as great as he would have had still at forward. His 26 assists, meanwhile, are above average for defensemen, but only slightly more than linemate Jack Kowalski (23) and actually less than the guy who would have been his first line replacement, Jakob Ackerman (27). I would argue that Hunter’s offensive skills are not being utilized as effectively as they should.

Have a Hit

Hunter’s not exactly known as a big hitter either; his 59 hits are far less than Kowalski’s 113, and far below the league’s top ten. His shots blocked, meanwhile, are at just 44, below both Ackerman and Kowalski as well. He also takes slightly more hits than the average defenseman at 51. This makes sense with Hunter’s lower checking (66) and strength (75). However, taking a closer look, I’m impressed by his defense thus far. Notably, Hunter so far has only totaled 49 penalty minutes, averaging less than a 2-minute penalty per game, thus keeping his team at full strength on the ice as much as possible. And then there’s the plus/minus, where Hunter’s 19 sits just outside the league’s top ten. The biggest number, though, might be the most simple: Riga is allowing just 2.0 goals per game, the best in the league.

Total TPE

It’s perhaps obvious that Hunter would get better stats at forward than at defense, but that wasn’t the ultimate goal. What Riga really wanted to accomplish is this: Is the team having the most TPE on the ice as much as possible? YEAH’s Total Points Active is a key consideration here; the optimal players you want on the ice are Thomassen, Faraday, Faux, Hunter and Kowalski, in that order. Then, there’s a medium drop off to Pettyfer, then a big drop off to everyone else. In that regard, moving Hunter to defense has surely lessened the log jam among forwards and helped the team’s good players be on the ice as much as possible. Hunter leads the team in minutes per game now at 31.07 (eighth in the VHL in minutes played overall), followed by fellow defensemen Kowalski and Ackerman, respectively. The forwards also play in an amount determined by TPA: Thomassen the most, then Faraday, Faux, and Pettyfer. More than any other team, Riga has their best players on the ice as much as possible, a big reason they’ve been able to win so many games.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

 

Playing with the Trade Machine

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

The Riga Reign are perhaps a rarity in today’s VHL. Not only are they a top-flight team that could become even better by adding another piece at the deadline, they actually have the pieces to make a deal happen as well. The Reign have their own first round pick for each of the next two seasons, as well as a young player in Wesley Babiy, that could be very attractive to other teams come deadline day.

Of course, the Reign are also flushed up against the salary cap, having only $250,000 to the team’s name. However, that doesn’t stop up from speculating. It’s more fun when we have an active trade deadline, so in the spirit of fun, here are three deals the Reign could make that would shake up the VHL. For salary cap purposes, I’m assuming all of these trades would be consummated right at the deadline.

 

Trade 1:

Riga gives C Griffin Simons, C Wesley Babiy, S47 RIG 2nd

Seattle gives RW Jakob Rhinehart

Why it could happen: With Kurtis Hunter, Jack Kowalski and Jakob Ackerman comprising a large portion of the team’s cap, it’s unlikely that Riga would look to upgrade at that position without shipping one of those players off. Instead, the biggest gains could come from the offense, specifically a scorer. Riga has perhaps an odd problem: It has too much passing, with five different centers dotting the active roster. While Pettyfer is a scorer, Riga would be well served by adding another elite scorer to pair with Faux on the second line. Enter Rhinehart, who essentially does nothing but score. For Seattle, the trade allows them to take back a pick, as well as a flyer on a S45 prospect that has at least checked into the site recently in Babiy.

Why it wouldn’t happen: Could Seattle get a first for Rhinehart? With a number of contending teams holding their own first round selections, and with Rhinehart having a valuable skill set for a small cap hit, it’s not out of the question in my opinion. But on the flipside, I wouldn’t give up that first if I were Riga without a bigger haul in return; the rebuild is coming sooner rather than later for the franchise. In addition, Riga seems to be taking a depth tactic this season, and it seems to be working. Going into the playoffs with only five forwards and three defensemen may not be ideal.

 

Trade 2:

Riga gives C Griffin Simons, D Jack Kowalski, S47 RIG 1st

Stockholm gives C Jody 3 Moons, C Sam Teibert

Why it could happen: Now we’re talking. Simmons is retiring after the season and Kowalski is inactive once again, so it makes sense for Riga to ship them off in a package deal. And in today’s VHL, doesn’t it make more sense to improve on offense while becoming slightly weaker on defense? Jody 3 Moons has been a stalwart on offense for the Vikings while playing on the same line as Karnage, and his shooting-first mentality would make him a perfect linemate to either Thomassen or Faux. Teibert, meanwhile, has at least a few defensive skills that would allow the team to slot him in to the second line. For Stockholm, receiving a first for 3 Moons is a victory, and the clean cap sheet that comes with expiring Simons and Kowalski deals doesn’t hurt either.

Why it wouldn’t happen: Going from Simons to 3 Moons would certainly be an upgrade, but just how big of an upgrade would that be? The team already has shooting firepower on both its front line and second line, and 3 Moons’ impact may not be fully felt in this lineup. The defense, however, was bad enough during the offseason that Hunter needed to move there, and Teibert would be a pitiful replacement for everything Kowalski brings to the table. Sure, it’s helpful to be better on offense, but not when the defense suffers hard in return, and this may turn the team into being a bit too S42-44 Quebec-esque to be successful in the playoffs.

 

Trade 3:

Riga gives C Griffin Simons, G Bernie Gow, S47 RIG 1st, S48 RIG 1st

Calgary gives G Hans Wingate

Why it could happen: And this is where we have some fun. Calgary’s in an odd place right now – it’s clearly going for it all with older players such as Denis, Cote and Hurley, but it also has some players such as TebowGow and Hyvarinen that look to be around past just the next couple of years. Hans Wingate has made it known to team management that he expects to win, and in taking only a one year contract last offseason, he may very well leave if he feels he could win elsewhere instead. Could Calgary preempt him by going for the short rebuild with Riga’s picks? Remember, too, that Bernie Gow and Calgary’s GM have a brotherly connection, and he could likely be persuaded to re-sign with the franchise. For Riga, the reasoning is obvious: If you’re going for it all one last time and you can upgrade to the highest TPE goalie in the league, you do it.

Why it wouldn’t happen: ... or is Riga’s reasoning really that obvious? Losing that S48 RIG 1st could hurt badly, especially if this is the team’s last run and Wingate leaves for other pastures in free agency anyway. Given that he's a past general manager of the team as well, it’s possible that Gow could be persuaded to stay (or provide trade fodder) through the team’s rebuilding process. For Calgary, meanwhile, trading Wingate would mean punting this season most likely to be able to build up again quick for those S44 guys. And with Toronto and Seattle rebuilding to be good in the immediate future, there’s no guarantee that the franchise would be able to return to the same great heights within the Gow brothers' career.

Author's Note: This article was written before the consummation of any trades, and I find it funny in retrospect. A full explanation of the Riga/Calgary trade will occur in Edition 269.

Edited December 2, 2015 by CowboyinAmerica

[eaglesfan036 4,585]

 

 

Trade 3:

Riga gives C Griffin Simons, G Bernie Gow, S47 RIG 1st, S48 RIG 1st

Calgary gives G Hans Wingate

Why it could happen: And this is where we have some fun. Calgary’s in an odd place right now – it’s clearly going for it all with older players such as Denis, Cote and Hurley, but it also has some players such as TebowGow and Hyvarinen that look to be around past just the next couple of years. Hans Wingate has made it known to team management that he expects to win, and in taking only a one year contract last offseason, he may very well leave if he feels he could win elsewhere instead. Could Calgary preempt him by going for the short rebuild with Riga’s picks? Remember, too, that Bernie Gow and Calgary’s GM have a brotherly connection, and he could likely be persuaded to re-sign with the franchise. For Riga, the reasoning is obvious: If you’re going for it all one last time and you can upgrade to the highest TPE goalie in the league, you do it.

Why it wouldn’t happen: ... or is Riga’s reasoning really that obvious? Losing that S48 RIG 1st could hurt badly, especially if this is the team’s last run and Wingate leaves for other pastures in free agency anyway. Given that he's a past general manager of the team as well, it’s possible that Gow could be persuaded to stay (or provide trade fodder) through the team’s rebuilding process. For Calgary, meanwhile, trading Wingate would mean punting this season most likely to be able to build up again quick for those S44 guys. And with Toronto and Seattle rebuilding to be good in the immediate future, there’s no guarantee that the franchise would be able to return to the same great heights within the Gow brothers' career.

 

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

Down the Stretch

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

For both the Helsinki Titans and Riga Reign, this is a season of going all-in. Following the re-acquisition of Jackson Miller, the Titans now hold the best record in the league, one player who will be forced to retire after this season, and another two (O’Malley and Klose) who may be hit hard by regression. The Reign, meanwhile, will see both Thomassen and Faraday retire after the season, and the acquisition of Hans Wingate shows that they are pulling no punches.

With an 8 point lead and only 11 games left to play, it would seem that the Titans have the first seed in the European Conference all but locked up. However, is that such as lock as it seems? We decided to take a look at the schedules for both teams to end the season to determine if the Reign actually have a solid chance.

For both teams, we’ve split their opponents into three groups. Group A, the toughest opponents, consists of fellow title contenders – New York, Calgary, Helsinki and Riga. Group B consists of opponents that can put up a tough game and be a trap – Cologne and Davos. Group C, meanwhile, are teams that Helsinki and Riga should both beat – Toronto, Quebec, Stockholm and Seattle.

Helsinki Titans (46-10-5, 97 points)

Remaining schedule: Meute (C), @Reign (A), @Vikings (C), Legion (C), Wranglers (A), @Americans (A), Vikings (C), @Wranglers (A), @Americans (A), Legion (C), Bears (C)

Schedule Breakdown: 5 Group A, 0 Group B, 6 Group C

Game to Watch: vs. Wranglers, Game 330 – Of course the game against the Reign is going to go a long way to determining whether Riga can catch Helsinki, but in the end, it may not matter. If the Titans can take even one of their games against the Group A teams otherwise, they may have too large of a lead for Riga to be able to catch them. Perhaps the easiest of those games will be their home game against the Wranglers, the lowest in the standings of all the Group A teams. If the Titans get through the first five games remaining on their schedule at 4-1, or perhaps 3-2, it will be time to call this race over before Helsinki even gets to the tough part of their schedule.

Analysis: The schedule breaks down well for the Titans here. Seeing as how Clegane will only need to sit for two more games, the Titans can get those games out of the way early (perhaps against the Meute and Vikings) in order to save him for needed games against the Legion and Bears to end the season. If the Titans sweep their six games against the Group C teams, the Reign would need to finish out the season on an 11 game winning streak to grab the top seed – and that’s even if the Titans lose both games a piece to the Wranglers and Americans.

Riga Reign (43-15-3, 89 points)

Remaining schedule: Americans (A), Titans (A), @Americans (A), @Dynamo (B), @Americans (A), @Express (B), Vikings (C), @Dynamo (B), @Dynamo (B), Express (B), Dynamo (B)

Schedule Breakdown: 4 Group A, 6 Group B, 1 Group C

Game to Watch: at Americans, Game 318 – We’re going to know quickly whether the Reign actually have a legitimate shot at the number one seed – they likely need to go 4-1 (or 3-2 with a win over Helsinki) to go into the easier end of the schedule with any legitimate shot. The toughest games in this stretch will be the two on the road against the North America-leading Americans. If the Reign drop both of these games, they’re done. If they drop even one, they would need to beat the Americans the other two times as well as the Titans to stay alive. We’ll likely know by the end of the second Americans game whether the Reign are for real.

Analysis: Ouch. With three games against the Americans, four games against the Dynamo, and only one game against the four worst teams in the league combined, it’s going to be a rough road for the Reign coming down to the end. It’s enough to make me speculate that the Reign don’t have a realistic shot of grabbing the first seed in the European Conference. In fact, if the team bombs and goes 0-4 against the Dynamo, it’s actually conceivable that they might not even finish second. In all likelihood, though, the Reign’s main job will be determining their opponent in the first round. Riga plays Davos four times and Cologne twice, and although Davos currently has a two game lead in the standings, the Express have a slightly easier schedule down the stretch.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

 

So What Happened Was...

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on Riga Reign – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

By the time this magazine comes out, it’s likely that we’ll be in the Finals and the first round matchup between Davos and Riga will be ancient history. Still, it’s worthwhile to look back, just because of how weird the outcome was.

 

I don’t say this from a personal standpoint, despite the fact that Hans Wingate was traded to the team midseason. I say this from an objective standpoint. The teams by all measure would seem to be even, including shots: Davos only outshot Riga by five the entire series, just over one shot per game. And it’s not like the regular season was an indicator — in fact, Riga won their final three games against Davos by a combined score of nine to three.

 

But looking back, there were certainly weak points for the Reign, and the Dynamo seemed to exploit all of them. These are the key three reasons why Davos got out of the first round with a sweep.

 

1. Power Plays are Powerful

 

During the regular season, the Reign penalty kill in particular was unparalleled. The team finished the regular season with an 87.7% PK rate, just over the Titans and more than a percent and a half over the third place team, which just happened to be the Dynamo. Couple that with a second-place power play rate (the Dynamo were sixth), and it’s safe to say that the Reign had the best special teams in the league.

 

But there’s a funny thing that happens with a small sample size – penalties can be extremely random, and the results of those power plays can be even more random. That randomness absolutely killed the Reign, as they received 16 power plays over the course of the series and scored on exactly none of them. Meanwhile, Davos received 23 power plays, scoring on three of them. While that penalty kill rate isn’t far off Riga’s season average, the power play certainly was, which can be heavily attributed to strong defensive play from Davos’ penalty kill first line.

 

2. I’ll Take One Sinclair

 

It’s obvious that Callum Sinclair is a major reason for Davos’ victory, ending the four game series with an astronomical .965 save percentage. During the regular season, Sinclair had a .917 save percentage, while potential Shaw winner Wingate (Riga’s goalie in this series) finished at .923. Some people could call Sinclair’s play surprising... but is it really?

 

For starters, Callum Sinclair has 563 applied Total Points Added (TPA) to his player, per YEAH’s last update of the list on December 11. This places him second overall in the league, 28 above third place Blake Campbell and 134 above fourth place Greg Clegane. With this alone, Sinclair should have likely been playing higher than tied for third in save percentage during the season; he actually underachieved. But even the 200+ TPA he is behind Wingate isn’t as much as it seems. Since all attributes take four TPE to go one point once an attribute reaches 90, the gap between Wingate and Sinclair isn’t as large as, say, between Sinclair and Gow. Indeed, Sinclair has five different attributes at 90 or above, and his style control is at 99.

 

3. Shot Misses the Net

 

The triple overtime game in Game 3 may be the one that all Riga fans point to and remember, but Game 2 may have been the back breaker. The two teams each had 25 shots and each were about equal on face offs. Davos had six power plays to Riga’s two, sure, but that was only part of what I find is a much more intriguing stat: shots that are intended for net. Riga had an absolutely ridiculous 18 shots blocked during the game, with five coming from winger-turned-defenseman Kurtis Hunter alone. Granted, many of these could have come during the power play, but it shows that Davos may have actually had worse luck with their shots than they should have. Of the shots that actually reached Wingate, a decent percentage of them reached the back of the net, and it’s reasonable to speculate that even more would have if defenders didn’t lay out.

 

On the other hand, the play-by-play reveals a ridiculous number of Riga shots that missed the net entirely. By my count, Riga had 10 shots that completely missed the net. This reared its head the most in the third quarter; the team started out with three straight missed shots by Aksel Thomassen and James Faraday in the very first shift. They would then follow that up with just two shots on goal for the entire remainder of the period. With no offensive push, Riga would fall just short, a common theme throughout a series in which they lost three one-goal and one two-goal games.

Edited December 24, 2015 by CowboyinAmerica

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

American... Beauty?

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

Usually in this space, I select a team that isn’t quite the favorite in the VHL, but isn’t expected to be in the gutter. Usually, The Beat focuses on a team that has recently made some changes, is making waves, and hasn’t really proven itself yet but very well could this season. Well, what if that team expected to take the leap is also the championship selection of exactly half (23 of 46) of the people that have made predictions thus far?

It’s undeniable – the New York Americans have caught everyone’s eye so far this preseason. Whether it’s the big-time addition of reigning MVP Thomas O’Malley, or a new general manager in Edwin Encarnacion, or a relative weakening of the team’s biggest competitors in Calgary and Helsinki, the Americans look to be the presumptive favorite entering the season. But what will it take to not only break through to the finals (and break Calgary’s three year streak in the process), but to win for the first time this decade of VHL seasons? Here are the three keys I’ll be watching.

1. The Reincarnation: Much has been made of O’Malley’s arrival in New York, but let’s be honest: We know what to expect from him at this point. He’ll be up near the league lead in points; he’ll win a lot of face-offs and assists, and he’ll certainly be in the MVP conversation. For as much as a star can be a yawner, there simply isn’t much variation there. To me, the more interesting question comes with whether his linemates can keep up, particularly Edwin Reencarnacion.

Entering his fourth season and sitting at 720 TPE, the former No. 1 pick is now entering the prime of his career. S46 saw a huge leap for the winger, with his 51 goals sitting tied for third in the entire VHL. However, especially with O’Malley now on his line, Reencarnacion will be expected to at least equal or possibly exceed that output if the team is to live up to expectations. He may have 99 scoring and skating ability, but will the actual results be so kind?

2. Campbell, Mmm Mmm Good? Here’s a dirty little secret that few realize outside of New York: Campbell isn’t progressing at the rate that he once was. For all of the talk about his decision to sign with New York last offseason, goalie Blake Campbell has only actually written one media spot since arriving in town, and he has only gained 34 TPE in that time span (helped out heavily by the Christmas Gift). That’s probably not the best thing for a goalie that is now entering the latter half of his career.

In fact, thanks to depreciation, Campbell’s overall ratings are actually slightly worse than they were at the start of last year. So, what does that mean for New York? Campbell did play well enough to garner two votes for the Shaw Trophy, and his .918 save percentage and 1.92 goals against average were both second in the VHL. On the other hand, both Cleganes and Weinstein have improved, while Wingate and Sinclair have at least stayed stagnant. It may be unreasonable to expect a repeat performance from the goalie, and moving forward, it will be interesting to see whether this is his last Americans season with von Braxton waiting in the wings.

3. Offensive City: If there’s an accurate NHL comparison that can be made to this year’s Americans team, it’s to the Chicago Blackhawks. They’re always Cup favorites, they have strong offensive forwards, and... well, they don’t exactly like to hit that much. Defensive acquisition Lloyd Light will help in that regard, but with depreciation, he comes with below-perfect 90 checking and 91 strength. Presumptive linemate Biggu Kanyon is an offensively oriented defenseman and has not worked on his checking once. And third defenseman Thaddeus Humbert only has nominal checking additions.

The forwards aren’t much better either. O’Malley isn’t a checker and has actively added to his discipline, and Shock and Delicious are not well-versed in the skill. Both Ruutu and Reencarnacion do have 90 checking, but neither one is seen as elite in the skill—Reencarnacion’s 262 last season led the team but sat just outside the top 10. It’s not a necessity for a team to be good at hitting – just look at last year’s Wranglers, who were ninth in the league – but will a lack of any Klose-type enforcers at all hold them back?

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

The Butterfly Effect

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

“I gotta be honest with you.  I am acquiring first overall but I also have a goalie coming in for the future.  He isn't as good as you but I made a promise to this guy that I'd bring him in a while back because he's probably my successor as GM. Tbh if that promise was never made, I'd prob be drafting you 1st overall.”

 - Advantage, April 18, 2015

 

After trading with the Stockholm Vikings for the first overall selection in the Season 43 draft, the New York Americans selected E’Twaun Delicious. This selection was nowhere near a slam dunk at the time, and it looks even worse in retrospect given three of the four picks directly after him (along with teammate Jorma Ruutu) have passed him in TPE. Delicious is a certified bust, and if the Americans had drafted someone like Faux instead, they would have a much more formidable offensive attack.

 

But it gets worse. The top TPE earner at the time was neither Delicious nor Faux. It was Hans Wingate, a goalie that would slide to number three in the draft to the Calgary Wranglers. Wingate would proceed to be a thorn in the side of the Americans, beating them in the playoffs two years in a row, then producing a trade package (Bernie Gow) that would help beat them a third. With two Shaw trophies, a playoff MVP and a championship in four seasons, Wingate has become a star in the league.

 

And why did the Americans pass on Wingate, you ask? Because of the aforementioned promise to Jericho, the agent for goaltender Jax Barnstormer. It’s no secret that Advantage likely made this promise because of a personal friendship with Jericho, but in doing so, took a major risk. Already mostly inactive at the time with Stockholm (to the point where the Hall of Fame agent would go 11th in the S42 draft), Barnstormer would soon flame out after a very short lived stint with the Americans. With his flame out came the necessity to trade assets for the tumultuous Mikaelson, as well as retire defenseman Benjamin Dupont during the team’s championship run so New York could have a goalie of the future.

 

I’ve been waiting to write this article for a little bit, because I was letting the chips fall where they may. However, with Wingate traded from Calgary, Delicious looking inactive for the immediate future, and Advantage no longer the Americans’ GM, it seems that the ultimate ramifications of the decision are about as solidified as they will ever be. So, it’s a good time to explore what would have happened if New York had taken Wingate No. 1 overall, and not kept the promise to Jericho. It’s probably the most interesting “What if?” so far this VHL decade, and the butterfly effect is massive.

 

1. Calgary Doesn’t Win S44 Title, May Never Even Makes Finals

 

Let history show that in the middle of the S42 season, the goalie that will lead Calgary into the future was... Coca Cola. Yes, at that time Bojo was showing a bit of promise, to the point where GM Austin Gow even told Wingate that he would consider passing on him in the draft. Now, by the time draft day rolled around those feelings had obviously changed, but if Wingate had gone No. 1 overall the team might not have had a choice. Assuming that Calgary gets Delicious at Pick 3 (Faux was always going No. 2), the Wranglers probably would have rolled with Cola as their pick of the future.

 

And boy, that would have been a mess. It’s a reasonable assumption that Calgary may have made a deal for Mikaelson pre-S44 once Seattle started selling off. If not, or if the Meute outbid them, the Wranglers don’t win the S44 championship anyway. It’s also a reasonable assumption that Mikaelson would have retired there too anyway, leaving Calgary S.O.L., possibly needing to trade even more assets for a one year Waldron rental. The free agents that Calgary signs over this period, including Karlsson, Koenig and Wylde, aren’t as likely to go to a team in flux. Pairing Delicious with the also barely active Hyvarinen with two successive lottery picks that fail, meanwhile, could mean that Calgary blows it up and attempts to go a more “traditional” rebuilding route. And this leaves the door wide open in North America.

 

2. The “Depth Over All” Era Never Begins

 

It’s become a more common refrain in the VHL over the past two or three seasons that depth trumps top TPE, and with the salary cap not budging, having too many players at a max salary level can actually be a hindrance rather than a boon. This line of thinking seems reasonable, but it wasn’t always that way. In fact, it was just about three seasons ago when everybody expected the Quebec City Meute, featuring Mikaelson/Waldron, Wylde, Aksel Thomassen, Bruno Wolf, Travis Boychuk and not much else, to run away with the Cup. When they lost to Seattle in S43, it was seen as a fluke. But then, the Meute ran into the Calgary depth buzzsaw and got destroyed in the S44 conference finals. And suddenly it became a trend, and the depth naysayers opened their eyes.

 

With Wingate on a still-building Americans team though, Quebec (especially if Calgary fails to get a goalie) is far and away the best team in the North American Conference. The Meute likely set up an expansion finals rematch with Cologne of Season 42 two seasons later. The Meute may lose that one too, but the narrative isn’t quite the same losing to a high-TPE team that features O’Malley and Koenig as similar stars. Calgary, meanwhile, can't quite put the pieces together when searching for depth without a goalie, which shines a negative light on that way of building. And even today, we may see teams trying to build with all superstars (think current Riga trading depth for O’Malley) instead of the well-rounded builds of today.

 

3. Let the Americans Steamrolling Begin

 

So Quebec probably wins North America in S44. But given a Mikaelson forced trade/retirement, or an impending retirement for Waldron, the Meute probably still rebuild before the start of Season 45. And who does that leave at the top of North America? The Wranglers are having the problems mentioned above, and Seattle and Toronto are just entering rebuilds. In that case... hello there, New York. How nice of you to join us.

 

To be fair, a New York team with Wingate actually wouldn’t look all that dissimilar from the New York teams that actually happened. Wingate would be a decent enough stand-in for S45 Mikaelson, and Campbell is a decent enough stand-in for S46 and S47 Wingate. However, the North American competition in this alternate universe is such that it’s reasonable to say the Americans would be the favorites in the conference every year between S45 and... well, that’s a good question. The team still likely has Ruutu, Reencarnacion, Dupont, and Kanyon moving forward. While Wingate was likely to leave Calgary in free agency, he’s not skipping town with a young core like that still around. And even when the team runs into cap hell, it still has room to maneuver. In this alternate universe, it’s likely that New York is the North America favorites for four straight seasons, until Seattle or Toronto can be built enough for a fight. And if that happens, who knows what happens in the Finals?

 

That’s why a single promise between two friends is the most interesting VHL “What if?” to me in a long time. Disagree? I want to hear what you think would have happened in the comments.

Edited January 15, 2016 by CowboyinAmerica

[eaglesfan036 4,585]

awesome article, i will wait until the mag is posted for my comment :3

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

For Edition 273 I guess *shrugs*

----------------

 

 

A Pointless Penalty

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

There are some reasons why the New York Americans are currently atop the North American Conference. Sure, you could look at an offense that features two top-six goal scorers and another top-two assist man. You could look at a defense and goalie that has helped allow the third fewest goals against. You could even look at the power play, where three different Americans are among the top five in power play goals scored.

 

And you would be right to look at all those different things. But they’re nowhere near the most interesting. Because the number that catches my eye is a low one: 5.88.

 

That’s the amount of penalty minutes the Americans have averaged so far this year, going on the penalty kill a mere 63 times through 25 games. For reference, the next closest team is the Titans at a still-low 6.70 penalty minutes per game, while the league average is all the way up at 8.29.

Couple this with a strong penalty kill (87.30% as of the writing of this article), and it means that teams aren’t getting any easy goals against the Americans. That helps lead to a lot of easy victories, especially when you have an offense as potent as New York’s. And it also leads to two questions in my mind:

 

All-Time Low

 

Although the Americans have played just one-third of the team’s total schedule, it’s safe to say that they’re on pace for an historically low rate causing penalties. In fact, since the league expanded to 10 teams following Season 30, here are the lowest penalty minute per games played rates per season. As an aside, see if you can pinpoint exactly where either the league changed sim editions, or teams learned the value of discipline:

 

• S46: Seattle – 7.51
• S45: Toronto – 7.40
• S44: Riga – 6.65
• S43: Toronto – 6.58
• S42: Helsinki – 7.51
• S41: Riga – 6.51
• S40: Riga – 7.71
• S39: Helsinki – 6.25
• S38: Davos – 9.19
• S37: Cologne – 9.58
• S36: Vasteras – 7.88
• S35: Helsinki – 8.92
• S34: Vasteras – 7.68
• S33: Helsinki – 8.51
• S32: Riga – 8.86
• S31: Helsinki – 7.26

 

So What’s It Mean?

 

There are two main things that stick out to me here. The first is obvious: No team in the expansion era has ever averaged lower than six penalty minutes per game. If the Americans were to keep this rate up for the entire season, it would mean that they would potentially be the least penalized team of all-time.

 

It’s not very likely that they will do so, however. The law of averages states that although outliers can occur at any time, it’s more likely that there will be regression to the mean. Just because the Americans are not being penalized now with a low sample size of games doesn’t mean this will continue.

 

Could this stem from O’Malley, the only player on the team (and one of the few in the league) to add points into discipline? It’s possible, but that’s one spectacular jump to make for a team. Plus, one may notice that none of O’Malley’s previous teams led the league in fewest penalty minutes either, despite many people on those Cologne teams adding into the discipline attribute.

 

And that brings me to my final point... does it matter whatsoever whether New York actually has the lowest penalty minutes? Sure, it’s a positive in theory to be penalized the least amount possible. However, taking a look at the list of teams to lead the league in fewest penalty minutes, you’ll get a mixed bag. Sure, the S38 Davos’s and S40 Riga’s of the world were successful, but neither of the last two teams to lead the league in the category even made the playoffs.

 

This leads me to believe that penalty minutes are exceedingly, completely random (a conclusion I also came to when examining the topic during the S44 finals, when Cologne touted it as an advantage over Calgary). And not only are they random, but they also don’t matter much when examining the final result of a game. This is both a good thing and a bad thing for the Americans – they aren’t likely to continue this outlier streak because of the randomness, but then again, it may not matter whether they do or not.

Edited January 21, 2016 by CowboyinAmerica

[eaglesfan036 4,585]

Devise actually has points in discipline too

[BOOM 8,435]

Pussies. Oh, wait... I'm doing it as well. Nowhere else to put tpe this season so may as well maximize ice time.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

Actually for Edition 273

------

All-Star Americans

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

Davos may have the most playoff appearances and championships all-time, and Calgary may have them tied for the most finals appearances, but if there’s one place that the New York Americans shine it’s at the All-Star Game. This season, the Americans led all teams with five total All-Stars, and they were also the only team to have an All-Star at every position.

But this is nothing new; the Americans franchise have had 156 All-Stars historically, 11 more than second-place Davos (assuming McJustice does not count for them this season). As the team that has been best represented at the event, we thought it’d be fun to take a look at some of the highs of the Americans at the game. This is The Beat’s own version of By the Numbers, Americans style.

 

43% - Only seven players have been fortunate enough to make eight All-Star Games: Scotty Campbell, Daisuke Kanou, Benjamin Glover, Alexander Chershenko, David Smalling, Alexander Valiq, and Remy LeBeau. Toronto and Davos can each claim two names on that list, but the only team that can claim three – 43 percent of the players that have been to all eight ASGs – is the Americans. Benjamin Glover, of course, played all eight seasons for the franchise, while Alexander Chershenko played there the final half of his career, where he was a teammate of David Smalling for the end of the latter’s career as well.

 

6 – It’s well-known that the Americans have dominated defensively since expansion occurred in Season 31, but it’s worth taking a look at just how dominant New York defensemen were. Ryan Sullivan, Matt Bentley and Conner Low finished their careers with six All-Star starts a piece, for a total of 18 between them. Of course, Sullivan and Bentley did not spend their entire careers with the franchise, and Low moved to wing near the end of his career, but it’s still a testament to the franchise that they were able to produce world-class defensemen despite a rotating door at the position. Biggu Kanyon was the team’s defensive representative this season, and he may continue the tradition in the future.

 

18 – The only goalie in this year’s game to finish with a perfect save percentage was the American’s Blake Campbell. To be fair, it wasn’t exactly difficult; the goaltender only faced one shot, from New York teammate Lloyd Light no less. But that’s not to say that this is something new, as Americans goaltenders have been absolutely dominant in recent ASGs. In fact, no New York goaltender has allowed a goal in three straight ASGs now. In Season 46, Campbell was also a brick wall, stopping 14 shots as the only goalie to stop all shots. In Season 45, meanwhile, Niklaus Mikaelson stopped all 4 shots he faced, one of two goalies to stop all shots along with... well, Campbell again. That means Americans goalies have stopped their last 18 shots in the normally high-offense game. I guess that makes up for New York’s Jax Barnstormer stopping just one of eight shots in Season 44.

 

1 – However, if there’s a downside to New York in the All-Star Game, it’s the number of goalies the team has actually placed in the starting lineup. Despite the league-leading number of total starts for the franchise, of the six players that have started at least four ASGs as a goalie, just one played for the New York franchise. And that one barely did so – Tuomas Tukio is much more known for his Helsinki and Quebec stints than for the one season at the end of his career with New York. Despite Benjamin Glover’s eight total appearances, he only actually started the ASG three times in his career; Alexander Labatte and Niklaus Mikaelson also had three ASG starts over their careers.

[Victor 10,564]

20 hours ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

while Alexander Chershenko played there the final half of his career, where he was a teammate of David Smalling for the end of the latter’s career as well.

 

I was only there for 2 seasons actually.  And Smalling along with Rafter were traded for me before S34 so we were never teammates.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

17 hours ago, Victor said:

 

I was only there for 2 seasons actually.  And Smalling along with Rafter were traded for me before S34 so we were never teammates.

 

Thought it was longer in my head, my bad

[Victor 10,564]

6 hours ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

 

Thought it was longer in my head, my bad

 

lol I'm still trying to figure out whether Devise confused our two articles.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

 

To Bear, or Not to Bear?

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

The Americans are going to win the regular season title in the North American Conference. This much is statistically assured. And, for many league fans and Vegas sharps, the smart money is on New York rolling through their conference finals challenger and into the VHL finals, where additional smart money would have them face off against Helsinki in a clash of... well, Titans.

 

However, the VHL playoffs is never nearly that pretty. The Americans probably had the best team in the conference last year too; they lost to the Wranglers. The same argument could be made for Season 45 as well. And the last time the Bears had a contender at all, in Season 43, they ran through the playoffs to become one of the most unlikely champions in VHL history.

 

Frankly, if I were an Americans fan, I’d still be a bit worried, despite being the favorite. That’s why Americans fans and players alike will be watching the likely Wranglers/Bears series earnestly. But which team should they be rooting for? We went through the Americans’ stats against both teams to pick out some interesting numbers that can help guide the way.

 

0-20: The Americans have a pretty darn good power play, sitting just under 20 percent (19.6%) on the season as of this writing. In fact, against eight of the nine teams they play, they have at least a double-digit PP%, including against the Bears at 15.4 percent (4 for 26). However, there is one team that not only have limited the Americans on the power play, they’ve shut them down completely: the Wranglers. So far in six games this season, the Americans have earned 20 power plays against the Wranglers. They’ve scored on exactly none of them. And when defenses tighten up during the playoffs and those goals are tougher to come by, not being able to convert on those easier chances could be a death knell for some teams.

 

67.2%: However, on the other side, the Wranglers don’t exactly convert on their chances as well, particularly when it comes to face offs. It’s perhaps not surprising that the Wranglers are relatively weak in the faceoff circle, given that the team only has one actual center, and TebowGow doesn’t even have a full 70 put into the attribute. However, that doesn’t mean it hurts less when the Americans snag 67.2 percent of all face-offs between the two teams in the Wranglers’ offensive zone, meaning more than two out of every three face-offs have gone the Americans’ way. On other parts of the ice, the percentages aren’t much better – New York wins 62 percent of face-offs in their own offensive zone, and 58 percent in neutral territory. While New York does have Seattle beat in face-off percentage as well, the difference isn’t nearly as pronounced. Adding McJustice and his 77 face-off ability may help the Wranglers a bit, but how much remains to be seen.

 

10: Sometimes the most effective stats are the most simple ones. While the Wranglers and Americans have tied in goal differential over their six games, scoring 15 a piece, the Americans have the Bears beat by +4 so far in the six games of their own. But it’s not the defense that is slowing Seattle down; the Americans have actually scored less goals (14) against Seattle than against Calgary. However, it’s the offense that can’t seem to get it going. Seattle’s 10 goals in six games against the Americans is by far their worst offensive output against any team – the next closest is 15 goals in seven games against the Dynamo. And those 10 goals include just three in three home games. If Seattle can’t figure out the Americans’ defense first, it may not matter if Clegane plays out of his mind.

 

13: Want a reason why the Bears haven’t scored many goals against the Americans? Try the power play differential. So far in six games, the Americans have notched 26 power play opportunities against Seattle, scoring on four of them. That’s not bad, and it’s even better when you consider that Seattle has only registered half as many power play opportunities. That’s right, over six games, the Bears have managed just 13 power plays against the Americans, scoring on two of them. That could be bad news if it continues. The good news, however, is that it isn’t likely to continue – the Bears have averaged 2.4 power plays per game or more against every other team on their schedule, meaning that while the Americans may have their number, this low figure may also be the victim of regression to the mean here shortly.

Edited February 13, 2016 by CowboyinAmerica

[eaglesfan036 4,585]

Interesting article. McJustice should help with the faceoffs :3

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

9 hours ago, eaglesfan036 said:

Interesting article. McJustice should help with the faceoffs :3

 

Right, forgot about that trade. Damn them for not moving player pages quickly enough. I'll edit maybe eventually

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

 

Cursed No More

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, and for the rest of the season, this space will focus on the New York Americans – the team’s run for the playoffs, how the past has shaped its present, and what it will look like into the future.

 

One of the toughest things to do in all of sports is to get over the hump and break through a seemingly impossible barrier after years of trying. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs. Or the Los Angeles Clippers. Or the Texas Rangers. The list goes on and on of dynasties that never were, ending up just short.

 

This current generation of New York Americans were threatening to add their names to the list. Heck, they still might, given that the Finals is just one game old at the writing of this column. However, their boogeyman was not the VHL Finals, but rather the semifinals, where they had lost to Calgary three straight years entering another showdown in Season 47.

 

It seemed for a while that history would repeat itself, with the Wranglers taking the first two games of the series, then Game 5 as well. Ultimately, though, the STHS gods would smile upon the Americans, allowing them to win the final two games of the series and match up against a similarly snakebitten team, Stockholm, in the finals. But how exactly did the Americans pull it off? We decided to look at their three main keys, along with if those keys can be replicated in the currently ongoing finals.

 

Key 1: Mmm Mmm, Outrageous

 

As the fifth overall pick in the Season 42 draft, Blake Campbell always had moderately high expectations. However, other than perhaps All-Star Games, he had never lived up to those expectations until this season, his sixth in the league. But following up a likely Shaw-winning performance during the regular season, Campbell started out less than lights out in the playoffs, while opposing goaltender Bernie Gow played up to his TPE for the first time.

 

However, that all changed in Game 6. Campbell stopped each of the 22 shots he faced, allowing the team to never look back after a first period goal. Notably, though, it’s not like he didn’t face Calgary’s best offensive players. Star centers TebowGow and McJustice each finished with five shots a piece, as did first line winger Zeptenbergs. And although the Wranglers only had two power plays to speak of, he was able to hold off a Calgary barrage in the final minute as well. Although Game 7 did see him give up two goals early, his .931 save percentage far outdueled Gow’s ultimate .870, and was the largest advantage in the deciding game.

 

Given his regular season, there’s no reason to believe that Campbell can’t replicate those statistics in what amounts to a revenge series against Stockholm. In fact, already, he stopped all but one of Stockholm’s 25 shots in Game 1. This is the Year of Campbell, and if he continues this play, a Playoff MVP may not be out of the question as well.

 

Key 2: Second Line Spectacular

 

If Calgary was going to win this series, it needed to do so through depth, similar to the way that Calgary teams of old have gone the distance as well. After the trade for Freedom McJustice, it seemed that Calgary would have exactly that, pairing him on a line with long-time Calgary stud Marcus Hurley and previous top prospect Jack Kowalski. Game 6 represented a complete offensive breakdown for the Wranglers, but especially early on in Game 7, the Calgary first line went to work with two goals.

 

But that second line just could not get it going whatsoever. Despite McJustice having six goals and five assists through his first ten games of the playoffs, he was completely shut out during Games 6 and 7. So were Hurley and Kowalski, and much of the credit for holding them off belongs to the defensive pairing of Humbert and Duddy. The second line offense for New York, meanwhile, scored both the second and third goals of Game 7, with Ruutu’s big shot coming with just six seconds left on the clock. It’s safe to say that New York won with S44 Calgary’s strategy – offense on both lines.

 

Again, there’s no reason to believe that this won’t continue with the Stockholm series, and it in fact may be even more pronounced. Stockholm is built very similarly to teams in the mid-30s: a high TPE first line, a solid enough goalie, and trusting experienced offensive players to blast them through. Karnage and 3 Moons should have the advantage over any other first line they face. But that second line of the Americans should have the advantage over a line consisting of Shock, Veltz and Stropko (Stropko’s odd playoff streak not withstanding). It’ll be interesting to see if that holds firm.

 

Key 3: In the Circle

 

For my previous article for the magazine examining whether the Americans should want to face the Wranglers or the Bears, I pointed specifically to the face-off disparity as one reason why New York could have an easier time against Calgary. Well, right around the same time as publication, Calgary moved winger Freedom McJustice to second line center, giving them another option to battle against O’Malley and Reencarnacion in the face-off circle. Too bad it didn’t seem to help.

 

In Game 6, the Americans won 53 of 91 available faceoffs, a 58 percent success rate. Neither McJustice nor TebowGow won half of their faceoffs. Game 7, meanwhile, was even worse for the Wranglers, as the Americans won 52 of 84 available faceoffs, a 62 percent rate. In this contest, the supposed savior McJustice took just 37 percent in the circle, mostly matched up against Reencarnacion. While not winning faceoffs may not necessarily be a death knell for a team – the Titans out-paced the Vikings in faceoffs in the other series – it certainly doesn’t help to give the other team extra possession.

 

As for whether the streak will continue – it’s tough to say. Lord Karnage is skilled in the faceoff circle, and indeed, he took 18 of 28 against New York in the first game of the Finals. Perhaps more surprising, though, is the play of Gifford Shock, as he took 11 of 18 in that game with just a 65 faceoff rating. If I had to guess long-term, I would say that the Americans are more likely to come out on top with faceoffs as the series wears on. Then again, the Americans won Game 1 even after losing the faceoff battle, so who knows if it’ll help.

Edited February 28, 2016 by CowboyinAmerica

[eaglesfan036 4,585]

cowboy you have some of the best writeups I have ever seen, these pieces are gold

[CowboyinAmerica 2,731]

This is my article submissio for Edition 276

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The Stars and Stripes

 

The Beat is a weekly article series giving a focused look on one VHL franchise. This week, for the final time this season, this space will focus on the New York Americans, who recently vanquished the Stockholm Vikings in the VHL Finals.

 

Considering the curse of Streetlight and the curse of losing to Calgary, it comes low on the list of curses, but... finally, a team I picked for The Beat at the beginning of the season actually won a championship! And frankly, for the New York Americans, it really wasn’t that much of a sweat.

 

OK, sure, the Wranglers took the Americans to seven games. But ultimately, I believe that it’s safe to say that the best team in the league won for at least the third straight season. Behind spectacular goaltending from Blake Campbell, offensive firepower of Thomas O’Malley and Lloyd Light, and stronger than expected defensive play of Biggu Kyanon and Thaddeus Humbert, the Americans overran all challengers.

 

There will be time to analyze where the Americans move from here, whether Campbell or Atticus von Braxton will be the goalie next year, or if O’Malley and Light are replaceable. For now, though, it’s a party. And following the decisive Game 5, these are the players that should have been partying hardest – The Beat’s 3 stars from the finals series.

 

3. Biggu Kyanon

 

While much has been made of the Americans’ offensive corps, it is perhaps the defense that has been the glue holding the team together, allowing it to make a stronger run than in years past. Indeed, Campbell saw easily the best season of his career with this defense in front of him, and they were surprisingly strong offensively as well. Perhaps the foremost of that dual power is Kyanon. While he’s not the biggest hitter in the league, his 99 defensive ability stymied the Vikings’ first line for much of the finals. Indeed, when TPE giant Lord Karnage has just three goals in five games, and his linemate Jody 3 Moons has just two, you know you’re doing something right.

 

This series, though, the third year Kyanon turned on the offensive firepower as well. In the Americans’ first three wins, Kyanon finished with a point in every game, as well as a total line of one goal, five assists, and a +3 rating. Game 4 was his ultimate performance, tallying an assist on three goals, including the team’s fourth and fifth goals that were highly needed in the 5-3 victory. While Games 2 and 5 might have been duds, holding him back from Playoff MVP consideration, the young defenseman certainly stepped up when it counted.

 

2. Lloyd Light

 

Here’s a fun trivia question for the future: Who is the only Americans player to have a point in every game in the series? No, it wasn’t Reencarnacion or O’Malley, the two supposed playmakers for the Americans. While O’Malley may have had the most goals, and Encarnacion had the monstrous Games 4 and 5, it was instead Light that was the Americans’ most consistent player throughout the series. Light finished with two goals, including the game winner in a crucial Game 3. He also tallied four total assists, including one on the game winner in Game 1.

 

But it’s not only that – it’s the little things. There’s Light, leading the team in hits in Games 4 and 5. There he is again, harkening back to his defenseman days and blocking at least one shot in four of the five games. Light had waited his entire career (or multiple players’ careers, depending on how you want to look at it), and he took full advantage. While he may not be the Playoff MVP, he deserves to be commended for his performance.

 

1. Blake Campbell

 

Don’t get it twisted: It’s been the year of Blake Campbell. And for this performance to come against his old team, one that didn’t seem to make him feel terribly wanted on his way out the door, has to be extra sweet. Throwing out an outlier Game 2 loss, Campbell’s save percentages in the Americans’ four wins were .960, .963, .909, .938. Let that sink in for a second. It’s not like the Americans were wildly outshooting the Vikings on their way to victory; in fact, the Vikings outshot the Americans in both of New York’s Game 1 and 4 victories.

 

Perhaps most impressive to me, though, is stopping the power that is the Vikings’ power play. Stockholm’s strength is on offense, and facing a first line power play unit that consists of Karnage, von Karma and 3 Moons is a terrifying thought for any goalie. Still, the Vikings scored just two power play goals in 13 chances over the five games, with just one tally in Games 3 and 4. For comparison, the Americans had three power play goals alone in Game 4, and two in Game 3 as well. With the Vikings not able to get those easy goals, it was going to be next to impossible to keep up with the Americans. And ultimately, a lot of that falls back on the goaltender, who in my opinion should win Playoff MVP in addition to the Shaw.

Edited March 3, 2016 by CowboyinAmerica