S66 VHL playoffs: Round 1 Preview

[ShawnGlade 1,010]

With the Season 66 VHL playoffs starting tomorrow, let's take a look at our first round matchups, how they stack up against one another, and who has the advantage in each category.

 

(3) New York Americans vs. Vancouver Wolves (2)

Season series: 6-2 New York

 

Offense

The Vancouver Wolves finished third in the league for GF behind only Davos and Helsinki, while the Americans nearly scored the LEAST amount of goals in the entire league with only 183 GF (Seattle in last had 182). While these numbers don't mean much come playoff time, it's very alarming to see how uneven these teams are offensively. While Vancouver had three forwards to eclipse the 80 point mark this season, New York had none, in fact the Americans' highest point scoring forward was Dan Wilisnky with 67 points. Looking at New York's first line, they actually have a solid starting three in Wilinsky, Twinger, and Ylonen down the middle. Heck, New York's depth isn't even that awful either. With Puigdemont centering Kirbsson and Shan, those three make up a nice second line for the Americans, with two of those three still on rookie deals and potentially taking over first line duties in the near future. While these lines are solid, it does not guarantee scoring, as New York only had 3 players on their team surpass 20 goals on the season. Looking at Vancouver, they've had a healthy crop of offensively gifted players this season, scoring in bunches. The Wolves had three forwards pass 80 points this season, the highest total coming from Jake Davis with an impressive 104 points. Their first line is definitely overpowering, featuring Louth centering Davis and Freeman, where Freeman seems to be the worst player on that line with 39 points, seeing as Louth and Davis combine for 194 points. The second line for the Wolves is a bit tricky, as Palo is really the only bright spot on the line that features two young players who admittedly have yet to break out. Vancouver also has a depth player in Hans Gruber, but he also has yet to break out and will serve a minor role for the Wolves. While I think New York has the advantage in their second line and depth, it's hard to overlook Vancouver's top players and the seasons' they've been having.

Advantage: Vancouver

 

Defense

The main focus on this series will be on either teams' defenses, as both teams have very good looking bluelines. On the New York side of things, they have more big names, with McWolf, Malenko, and Jerwa all on the backend. Robert Malenko needs no introduction, as one of the league's best dmen for the better part of 4 seasons is enjoying himself another fantastic year offensively, with 61 points, nearly averaging a PPG. Joseph McWolf was high regarded as the league's best defensive defenseman, however in the past two seasons he has decided to be more offensive, as he led all defensemen on the Americans with 63 points in 72 games. Despite these offensive numbers, McWolf still holds a touch of defense and physicality, finishing with 250 hits and 146 blocked shots. Lastly, former Davos draft pick Piotr Jerwa is in the midst of his second best season, scoring 46 points in 72 games. I make these numbers sound good, because they are, all things considered with New York. These three defensemen are among the top scorers on the New York roster, as Joseph McWolf  ranks second on the team in scoring . Vancouver is an interesting case on defense, as they have more points combined than New York's, they arguably have less valued players on their blueline. Starting off, Shawn Glade has been a monster since coming to the Wolves via trade not too long ago, as he averaged 4 points per game in his first week with the team (No, not kidding). He's recently come back down to earth with his scoring, but is still the highest scoring dman on Vancouver. Going down the deoth chart, Jagger Philliefan has also emerged as a solid dman for the wolves, scoring 51 points and racking up 211 hits. Denver Wolfe and Konstantin Mulligan are both rather defenesive in their play, blocking 126 shots and 102 shots respectively, while Mulligan had 195 hits this season. So in the grand scheme, I think Vancouver has the best defender in this series in Shawn Glade, however New York has very nice defenders on their blueline and I think it fits well if they can counter Vancouver's offense. It's hard to see Vancouver's dmen outplaying their New York counterparts, and for that I think it's a pretty easy decision here.

Advantage: New York

 

Goalies

While both teams can say they have a solid goalie in net, I have to believe that the whole reason New York has even made it this far is because of Ismond Kingfisher. Kingfisher is tied among starters for the league lead in Save% at .924, comes second in GAA with 2.36. He only had 2 shutouts this season, but the aging netminder is a key part to New York's run and it's easy to see why. Roger Sterling for Vancouver has also played well, but he's had a way better team in front of him. Sterling is rocking a .906 Save% and a 2.86 GAA so far this season in 64 games played. I would say these numbers aren't bad for the VHL, but they sort of are. This season we've seen way better goalie stats than ever before and these stats would rank Sterling in the bottom half of goalies in the league. It's hard to see why, as Vancouver has a solid team, but it could be attributed to the less than ideal defensive core he has in front of him. It intrigues me that Kingfisher faced 1976 shots this season compared to Sterling's 1813 yet Kingfisher has had a far better season. Not to mention that with more shots and the same number of games played, Kingfisher has allowed nearly 20 goals less than his counterpart, only allowing 151 goals all season on a weak New York squad. I think if the Americans get past the Wolves, Kingfisher will be the reason why.

Advantage: New York

 

Overall

Despite New York having an advantage over Vancouver in 2/3 of the categories, it's really hard to overlook Vancouver's offense and their winning record. Countering that though, it's really difficult to overlook the season series between these two, as New York pummeled Vancouver this season. This series could honestly be a toss up, as It's really hard to go against either team here. I think this will be a longer series than people think and if it goes to game 7, I honestly don't know who wins.

Prediction: Vancouver in 6 games

 

 

(3) HC Davos Dynamo vs. Riga Reign (2)

Season series: 7-1 Riga

 

Offense

Both these teams stack up very well up front, as both teams finished in the top 4 for GF. Looking at Davos, they have a pretty stacked top 6 consisting of Crimson, Peace, Dragomir, Dahlberg, Svoboda, and Madden. Of these six, five of them passed 60 points this season, with the only outlier being Pat Svoboda at 43 points. They also have very nice goal scoring, with those same five players all scoring at least 20 goals this season, with three of them also scoring over 35 goals. It's hard to exactly say who makes up the first and second lines for this team, as the line have changed a lot over the season, but we can assume that Crimson, Peace, and Svoboda make up the first line to start the series. They also have a small depth forward in Katie Warren, who hasn't done much offensively but has seen an increase in ice time as the season went on. On the Riga side, the Reign have a nice mix between young and old players throughout their top six. The Reign make an interesting choice opting to play their younger players on the first line, when their aging players have been arguably better. We may see HHH, Garrop, and Randoms start the on the first line for the Reign, and it wouldn't be an awful idea, as those three have been on the upswing as of late. The real power line lies on their second line, with Cast, Preencarnacion, and Smeb all forming together. Cast and Preencarncaion are on the back half of their careers, but certainly don't play like it, with Cast putting up 80 points and Preencarnacion nearly reaching the century mark with 97 points. Riga is also one of the few teams with a full third line, which consists of Aaltonen, Sigurdsson, and Matthews. The third line hasn't dont fantastic on the scoresheet, but they definitely counter the depth of Davos. It's hard to judge who's offense is better, because Davos has more top players, but it's hard to bet against Preencarnacion and Cast, especially when HHH could be a wildcard to the Reign. I think the offense battle comes down who can brute force it more, and I think Davos does that to a T, as they just have more star power up front.

Advantage: Davos

 

Defense

Another hard to judge category, because both teams are very similar to one another on defense. Davos opts to run 5 defensemen, with two rookies on the backend. To go with two rookies, they also have two older defensemen to lead the youngins in Marvin Harding and Alvaro Jokinen. Jokinen has consistently been a top defensemen offensively, but has seen a decline in production this season, only putting up 48 points on a stacked Riga squad. Harding was acquired not too long ago and has done decently so far, so the verdict on him is unknown, however 71 points this season is definitely not looking bad. Rounding out the non-rookies, we have Smitty Werbenjagermenjensen, who has played a top 2 role this season on the blueline, and has put up a career best 48 points this season, also blocking 137 and 124 hits, standing out as Davos' best defensive dman. Paddywagon and Past have both had less than ideal seasons, but are still rookies so they have time to develop. For Riga, Ryan Kastelic continues his Reign (see what I did there?) as a top offensive defenseman in the league, as he had a career best 80 points for Riga this season. Heading down the list, the Reign also have a nice mix of young and old, with Cayden Saint nearing the end of his career after a decent season with 46 points and 116 shot blocks. The Reign have two rookies on the blue line in Apollo Hackett and Aron Nielsen, where both outperformed both Davos rookies in nearly all categories. Riga has a clear advantage in the rookie department, but I don't think this series comes down to rookies. IMO, these teams are almost too close to call. Harding and Kastelic could cancel each other out, Werbenjagermanjensen and Saint are about equal, Jokinen cancels out Nielsen stat-wise which leaves it down to Paddywagon (excluding Past, as he's a 5D) and Hackett, which is a tough call because Hackett is better offensively and physically, but they are pretty equal defensively. However, Hackett has 174 PIMs compared to only 9 for Paddywagon, so Paddywagon definitely isn't putting his team down as much. It's a tough call to decide who wins here, as it could really go either way. Stat wise, Riga has the advantage, but the value goes to Davos, so it's hard.

Advantage: Tie

 

Goalies

Another tough category, but for different reasons. Again, I doubt either team goes to their backup, so it's a safe assumption that Davison and Kriketers will start for their teams. Finn Davison has struggled a bit this season, but has maintained decent numbers, with a .913 Save% and a very nice 2.6 GAA. He is still looking for a breakthrough moment, as he's struggled to get over the hump so far in his career. He's played well don't get me wrong, but he's looking to join the Kingfisher's of the league so to speak, which he still has yet to post those kinds of numbers. Looking at Riga, Kriketers is far better in nearly every stat, with a .922 Save% and a 2.31 GAA in 66 games this season. He's faced more shots and played more games than Davison, but has had the better stats, including a very impressive league leading 9 shutouts this season. This being said however, hedge can confirm that Kriketers is notorious for shitting the bed in the playoffs and has jokingly(?) been the reason that the Reign have been eliminated in the past 2 seasons. Yet, when we turn to stats, it's very easy to see who has the advantage in this department.

Advantage: Riga

 

Overall

Another tough call of a series, as either team has a nice shot at this series. Something to note however, both teams are sort of limping into the playoffs, so I think it's not about who wins the series, it's about who doesn't lose. The season series is hard to ignore here, and it looks like Riga may steamroll Davos. They tied at 1-1 in the categories, and for good reasons. If this series ends in 4 or 5 games, I think Riga will be the winner just because of their season so far and their dominance over Davos. Conversely, if this series goes to 6 or 7 games, I think Davos wins it, because of their star power and depth they have everywhere, and it shows that the season series doesn't mean shit here. Either way, very close series and a tough call

Prediction: Riga in 5

[Dil 1,760]

New York in 4

 

[Beaviss 4,957]

1 hour ago, DilIsPickle said:

New York in 4

 

 

@eaglesfan0366 do you see this?

[Matt_O 897]

1 hour ago, ShawnGlade said:

Prediction: Riga in 5

Wow. I wouldn't expect a short series, but who knows

Edited June 18, 2019 by Matt_O

[ShawnGlade 1,010]

1 minute ago, Matt_O said:

Wow. I wouldn't expect a short series, but who knows

eh, thats what i think will happen, but again if it goes 6/7 then davos wins it