S68 Mock Draft Analysis: Who Called It Best?

[Gustav 6,469]

This is something I've wanted to write up for a while, but since I've got this week plus the next two in media spots saved up, plus a big article planned after that, I figured that I should just throw a big article in here, and claim a couple points for this week while I've got the time to write something. Anyway, you may have remembered that way back at the time of the draft, I was part of a great big article that put the "big boy media spot" in "big boy media spot." This 6,350-word mock draft was supposed to be the single most comprehensive view of the draft, and we hoped that it might be the most accurate out of everything that had been put up as well. So was it really? We'll have to take a look at our performance, both individual and cumulative, to see how it went, and that's exactly what I'll do.

 

I'll be looking at a few different categories here, and here's a template for the analysis, complete with explanation:

 

Member Name

 

Correct Guesses:

[A list of all picks guessed correctly by that member]

 

Within One:

[A list of all picks guessed correctly, or within one pick of their actual selection]

 

% Correct:

[Percentage of picks guessed correctly]

 

% Within One:

[Percentage of picks guessed correctly, or within one pick of their actual selection]

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/SD):

This will be a set of three numbers showing, basically, how far off this person's guess for each player was from their actual choice. The first number will be the average distance between the guess and the actual selection, and both of the other numbers will show how consistent that member's guessing was (if my poor explanation doesn't make sense to you, the lower these numbers are, the better).

 

 

So on with the analysis!

 

 

Frostbeard

 

Correct Guesses:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Frans Eller (#6)

Tony Bolonee (#36)

 

Within One:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Frans Eller (#6)

Kaspars Claude (#14, guessed #13)

Tony Bolonee (#36)

 

% Correct:

15.8%

 

% Within One:

18.4%

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/SD):

6.33

32.07

5.66

 

 

Gustav

 

Correct Guesses:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

A Red Guy (#8)

Fredrik Elmebeck (#9)

Raymond Bernard (#11)

Wolf Stansson Jr. (#12)

Owen Nolan (#13)

Ricky Johnson (#18)

Finnegan MacBurn (#23)

 

Within One:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Frans Eller (#6, guessed #7)

A Red Guy (#8)

Fredrik Elmebeck (#9)

Raymond Bernard (#11)

Wolf Stansson Jr. (#12)

Owen Nolan (#13)

Kaspars Claude (#14, guessed 15)

Ricky Johnson (#18)

Aamon Grim (#22, guessed #21)

Finnegan MacBurn (#23)

Tony Bolonee (#36, guessed #35)

Alyksander Hunter (#39, guessed #38)

 

% Correct:

28.9%

 

% Within One:

42.1%

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/SD):

4.32

22.74

4.77

 

 

McWolf

 

Correct Guesses:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

 

Within One:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4, guessed #5)

Frans Eller (#6, guessed #7)

Aamon Grim (#22, guessed #21)

 

% Correct:

7.9%

 

% Within One:

15.9%

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/SD):

6.53

32.46

5.70

 

 

Renomitsu

 

Correct Guesses:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

 

Within One:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Frans Eller (#6, guessed #7)

Kaspars Claude (#14, guessed #13)

Seabass Perrin (#17, guessed #18)

Alyksander Hunter (#39, guessed #38)

 

% Correct:

10.5%

 

% Within One:

21.1%

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/Standard Deviation):

5.55

31.67

5.63

 

 

Combined Guesses (Order of Combined Mock):

 

Correct Guesses:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Kaspars Claude (#14)

 

Within One:

Condor Adrienne (#1)

Lance Flowers (#2)

Thorny Underyew (#3)

Jeff Downey (#4)

Frans Eller (#6, guessed #7)

Kaspars Claude (#14)

Ricky Johnson (#18, guessed #17)

 

% Correct:

13.2%

 

% Within One:

18.4%

 

Distance from Actual Selection (Mean/Variance/SD):

5.92

27.18

5.21

 

 

So, apparently, my guesses were relatively spot-on (and no, I didn't know this before I wrote this up). Here are some rankings for every category:

 

Correct Guesses:

1. Gustav (11)

2. Frostbeard (6)

3. Combined (5)

4. Renomitsu (4)

5. McWolf (3)

 

Within One:

1. Gustav (16)

2. Renomitsu (8)

3. Frostbeard (7)

T3. Combined (7)

5. McWolf (6)

 

Lowest Mean Difference:

1. Gustav (4.32)

2. Renomitsu (5.55)

3. Combined (5.92)

4. Frostbeard (6.33)

5. McWolf (6.53)

 

Lowest Standard Deviation:

1. Gustav (4.77)

2. Combined (5.21)

3. Renomitsu (5.63)

4. Frostbeard (5.66)

5. McWolf (5.70)

 

 

So, in short, my guesses were the most trustworthy overall, while McWolf's were the least. Renomitsu and Frostbeard ended up fighting the combined mock for the final ranking, and among them, Renomitsu's picks were, on average, closest to the players' actual selections, though the combined list was more consistent overall due to its lower standard deviation. Frostbeard likely brought up the rear among the middle three as far as consistency goes, but managed to call the most picks out of the middle group. 

 

Will something like this happen again? If so, who will win the battle for ultimate mock draft supremacy?

 

This concludes my "VHL.com Article" for the week.

 

@McWolf @FrostBeard @Renomitsu 

[Matt_O 897]

This article reminded me of doing Mean Absolute Deviation in 6th grade math, and boy was that the worst

[Banackock 8,143]

i win

[Gustav 6,469]

31 minutes ago, Banackock said:

i win

I forgot to include the "Bana's mock didn't miss a single pick"

[McWolf 3,116]