Revisiting the Goalie Shortage in the S68 Dispersal Draft [1/2]

[Erik Summers 451]

Revisiting the Goalie Shortage in the S68 Dispersal Draft

 

 

My Previous Work

 

Prior to the S68 Dispersal Draft, I wrote about the shortage of goalies in the upcoming draft. After submitting my piece, the situation became even more dire, with Prague declaring their intentions to call up rookie goal tender Bruce Grimaldi, my projected first overall pick. This meant that the remaining two goalies would likely end up going in the first round instead of being spread across the first two. I also predicted that Mississauga would take a goalie with the first overall pick. Obviously, for reasons that I will talk about later, Mississauga ended up with the second overall because they believed that they would get their guy at second. In the VHL, sometimes narratives write themselves, and this is one of those situations. In the first round of the playoffs, the five seed Mississauga Hounds are facing the four seed Yukon Rush and the goalie that was once theirs, Block Buster.

 

The History

 

When Mississauga joined the league in S66, they were blessed with one thing above all else, incredible defense. The pairing of Hulk Hogan and Noah Hanley carried the Hounds to the playoffs in their first season. These two made Rayz Funk look like a top-tier goalie, and despite their first round loss, really made this team look like a contender. However, the loss of Hogan, Funk, and forward Callum MacElroy, left Mississauga in a rough spot in S67. The team plummeted. The only bright spot of that season was the addition of goal tending superstar, Block Buster. Despite having significantly less defensive support and facing nearly three hundred more shots, Buster had nearly the same SV% as Funk. This still developing goalie was playing out of his mind, and with the core of young players around him and the multiple first round picks in the upcoming draft, it looked like Mississauga was about to make the breakthrough.

 

In this time frame, Yukon had been on an opposite trajectory. S66 had been the bottom of a hard rebuild for Yukon, but the tank had earned them a high draft position and they managed to snatch up A. Red Guy. Guy helped Yukon reach the playoffs in S67, but just as Mississauga had the season before, the Rush left the playoffs in the first round. They simply lacked the depth to make a deep run into the playoffs, but the core was there and a lot of eye were watching to see what Yukon would be able to do with it. Entering S68, it was clear that Guy was going to get called up to play for the Americans, so high on Yukon's shopping list would be a replacement goalie as well as some new offensive weapons to win potentially high-scoring games.

 

It is worth mentioning that there were two other teams in dire need of goalie going into the S68 draft, Mexico City and Las Vegas. So, with four teams and only two goalies, I had predicted that goalies would be going for a high price in S68.

 

The Draft

 

Coming into the S68 Dispersal Draft, Missisauga had the first and ninth overall picks, while Mexico City had the second, Las Vegas had the third, forth, and seventh, and Yukon had the eighth. While goalies were in short supply, this draft offered more offensive options than possibly any that came before it. It had high-scoring defenseman, generational talents at center, and more play-making wingers than you could shake a stick at. So, teams in need of a goalie had seven of the first nine picks, and shortly before the draft we all learned that the pool of goalies had just gone from three to two. To get an idea of how this affected the draft strategies of these teams, I interviewed @GustavMattias, and asked him about his thoughts looking back at the S68 draft.

 

"What was your thought process going into the S69 Dispersal Draft?"

 

"In just about any draft, I don't really head in with a strategy, but instead I look at the board and take whoever happens to look good to me when my pick comes up. Most of the time, I've got my very first pick planned out (i.e. I want this player, but if they're taken I'll take this player, and if they're taken I'll take this one, and so on), but after the fact I'll just look at who's there when I'm up and take who I think is best."

 

This was interesting to me, because I have been asking myself whether or not you would have to reconsider all decision made in the draft if you imagine the first round differently. But what Gustav is saying here somewhat confirmed what I had already believed. GMs plan out their first round, but after that it is more about taking the best player on the board than about filling specific roles on your team. Later, that is the logic I will be using when considering how the draft could have gone differently and what that might have changed.

 

"Did you consider drafting a goalie in the first of second round?"

 

"I certainly did, and I can say that I was heavily considering taking Block Buster later in the first or early in the second. Yukon ended up picking Buster at #8, though, if I remember correctly... ...After Buster went off the board, there was simply nobody left--the only remaining goaltender was Bruce Grimaldi. I almost picked him, too, but learned at the last second that he'd been drafted by Prague and had expressed a desire to be called up. So, that wasn't a chance I was willing to take, at least not with a first or second round pick."

 

This implied that Buster hadn't been a consideration for Gustav's first pick. According to Mattias, he had his guy with Brock Louth. But this begs the question, why? Was Louth worth the first overall pick, or could have they gotten a comparable player later in the draft? What made the chance of missing out on a goalie worth not picking Buster right away? Maybe this was a tactical decision, but perhaps it was more? I continued my interview to find out.

 

"Were there any behind the scene's conflicts that contributed to your decision not to use your first overall pick to secure him for S68?"

 

 

"Not at all; in fact, I was very happy with how Buster did (if I remember correctly, Buster's SV% was within 5 points of that of Rayz Funk the season before, and in that season, Funk was playing with a much better team). I had my eye on Buster during the draft, but goal tending is just one of many positions out there. In the VHL, you don't need an elite goalie to win games; you need an elite offense, and an OK goalie will get the job done. I try not to put a ton of emphasis on the goalie, and regardless of what happens in our series against Yukon, we've proven that we can beat good teams this season without having elite goal tending talent.

 

I actually never tried to go for a goalie. I feel that this may end up drawing a bit of criticism, and that's understandable. Throughout the season, though, I was focused on getting some of our less experienced active goalies some good starting time--first Lukas Schweitzer, then Nicolas Fomba, and finally Aleksander Aleksandrov."

 

But this is only one side of the story. I interviewed Block Buster as well, to get his side of the story.

 

"Were you expecting to stay in Mississauga after S67?"

 

"I thought that I would be selected in the draft by Mississauga... ...I am not one to talk much but the Locker Room is quieter in Yukon."

 

Beyond that, Buster didn't want to say much about his former team or the circumstances of his departure. He said that he was just focused on winning at the moment, regardless of who the opponent was.

 

Before we take a look at how things could have gone differently, lets take a dive into how these decisions turned out for these two teams throughout the season.

 

The Season

 

I'm going to break the season down into twelve six-game section and discuss each.

Mississauga:

1-6: It was a rough start for the Hounds. They opened up with a five game losing streak, including a shut out. Something had to change.

7-12: Things started to turn around, but slowly. They managed to go .500 through this stretch.

13-18: While improved, Mississauga was extremely erratic early on, within four games of each other, the Hounds were shutout by the Aces 0-4 and then turned around and shut them out 4-0.

19-24: Strangely enough, while still unable to manage a winning record yet in the season, Mississauga had beaten all of the top teams, LVA, Minnesota, and Houston. The potential is certainly here.

25-30: And BAM! The team took off, something finally clicked on the offense. 6-0 through these six games and finally above .500 on the year.

31-36: Probably the largest thorn in the side of the Hounds this season were the Minnesota storm, breaking their winning streak with two mid-season defeats.

37-42: Slowing off of their offensive explosion, it seemed like it was time for Gustav to decide whether to sell assets and prepare for next season or double down and make a run.

43-48: A couple of trades made it look like the Hounds might have given up on their playoff dreams, but that was just to fool the rest of us.

49-54: Another run of beating top teams behind them, Mississauga showed that they were still a serious contender.

55-60: Up against teams that made big late-season acquisitions, the Hounds struggled at times, but they had nearly secured their spot in the playoffs.

61-66: Keeping their head above water, now it is just a question of positioning. Would they be able to push the Storm out of third overall?

67-72: Fate had spoken. It was meant to be. The Hounds would be facing the bizzaro-world version of themselves in the first round of the playoffs.

 

Yukon:

1-6: It was a hot start 4-2 start for Yukon. They came out of the gate ready to go.

7-12: Fighting for the #1 spot with Houston, Yukon looked unstoppable early. Despite lacking offensive superstars, they were winning high-scoring games and defensive slug-fests.

13-18:  Then it came crashing down. It is had to explain this collapse, but the hottest team in the league went on a five game skid and fell to the middle of the pack.

19-24: What is a good way to bring yourself back from a near-collapse? Beating up on your rival in three straight games. Yukon looked like they were back.

25-30: Just as the Hounds were taking off, the Rush were struggling to keep their heads above water. A bit of a mid-season lull.

31-36: Back on their feet and beating some of the top teams in the league. Yukon was showing that they could still be a contender.

37-42: And just like that, the offense showed back up. Like at the beginning of the season, Yukon was burying teams and not looking back.

43-48: After splitting games with the Bulls, it really looked like these teams might go number one and number two over the course of the season.

49-54: Every time you make late-season acquisitions, you run the risk of disrupting the momentum of the team. You have to wonder if that is what happened to Yukon here.

55-60: As their new star defenseman got acclimated to the team, the strong back end of Yukon kept the team afloat as the offense struggled.

61-66: It was clear that Yukon was a serious team, but the question remained open about whether or not they could make themselves into a top contender.

67-72: Yukon wanted to answer that question with two shutouts in their last three games. Although sliding in the standings over the second half of the season, Yukon refused to be counted out.

 

The Playoffs

 

As if destined by the hockey gods, Mississauga and Yukon ended up facing each other in the first round of the S68 playoffs. Here's a breakdown of the series.

 

Game 1:

Twenty one shots, twenty one saves. I couldn't have asked for a better game to fit the narrative of this article. Block Buster took over the game and no one was going to take it back. This game simply couldn't have been won by Mississauga. No series is decided in the first game, but Yukon made the strongest possible statement with this game.

 

Game 2:

If it takes twenty four shots to get a goal past this team, none of us stand a chance, let alone 45 shots. We haven't seen a goalie perform like this in the playoffs in a generation. But perhaps this first goal will prove to be a turning point for Mississauga. Regardless, Yukon did their job and won their home games and are in control of the series at this point.

 

Game 3:

Things are getting dire for Mississauga. They were finally able to break through and score some goals against this Yukon defense, but that wasn't enough as the Rush put up four of their own. However, Yukon's offense has been inconsistent and if the Hounds finally found a way to score against Buster, this could be the turning point.

 

Game 4:

And just like that, the Hounds turned the corner, putting up five in a crushing victory. Regardless of where the series goes from here, Mississauga was looking to make a statement that they weren't here by mistake. Can Yukon regroup and find a way to close out the series?

 

Game 5:

THAT.. WAS.. BRUTAL.. Nate Wright, early in the third, scoring the only goal of the night. Both goal tenders played lights out in what might go down as the most exciting match up of the playoffs this season.

 

Alternate Reality

 

All of this has been building to one thing. What would happen if we imagined a world in which Mississauga didn't choose Brock Louth first and had instead gone with their S67 goalie? Obviously we can't know for sure. When I asked Gustav in my interview with he, this was his take.

 

"I think things certainly would have been different, but whether better or worse, I really couldn't tell you. Had we picked a good goalie with our first pick, the only pick where one was available, we would have missed out on our top defenseman. That likely would have changed the whole draft for us."

 

This kind of contradicted his earlier statement that after the first round he mostly just takes whoever he thinks the best player on the board is, regardless of position. So I'm not sure that it would have changed their entire draft, and because I don't want to have to try to redraft the entire thing, I'm going to assume it wouldn't. Now the rest here is conjecture, but here is how I think that draft might have gone.

 

1. Mexico City takes Crawford

2. Mississauga takes Buster

3. LVA takes Louth

4. LVA takes Graves

5. San Diego takes Washington

6. Houston takes Jensen

7. LVA takes Gilbert

8. Yukon takes Kidd

9. Mississauga takes Block

 

But what would this change? It is hard to say, but I have a few ideas.

 

Mississauga

Until Yukon acquired Alyksander Hunter late in the season, the Hounds undoubtedly had the better defense. However, over the course of the season, their goalies gave up thirty more goals than Buster. I think, behind Mississauga's defense, we might be talking about Block Buster as the regular season MVP and Mississauga as a favorite to win the cup. But what would they have done with Cinnamon Block instead of Brock Louth? Exactly the same. They are both physical defenders, they both scored 87 points this season. While Block is slightly more defensive and Louth takes more shots, you could argue that difference is as much about circumstance as anything.

 

I obviously can't say for certain, but I think in hindsight, the Hounds would have very likely been a better team if they had taken Buster and missed out on Kidd. There were just too many good substitutes at forward for me to believe that they would have been offensively hindered. Gustav was pretty candid in his interview about the possibility of drawing some public criticism for undervaluing not just Buster, but goalies in general. However, he truly believes that he has a strategy that will work going into the future, and only time will tell if he can bring better results to this young team.

 

Las Vegas

What if we took the highest scoring defenseman and put him on this season's goals leader? Well, we wouldn't have just had an offensive juggernaut in Las Vegas, we would have had one the highest scoring teams the VHLM has ever seen. It would have been a spectacle, but I'm not confident it would have been highly successful. They say defense wins championships, but this would have challenged the very notion of that.

 

San Diego

It is hard to overstate how big of an upgrade Washington is over Gilbert. I don't think this would have been enough on it's own, but it may have inspired the Marlins to sell future prospects to build a team around George now.

 

Yukon

Without elite goal tending, this team wouldn't have survived. You could argue that a forward like Balentine Kidd would have solved some of Yukon's offensive woes, but the slow spots in the Rush's season would have been twice as devastating without Block Buster keeping them in every close game. This may be bold, but I think Yukon may have missed the playoffs entirely with him. But the hockey gods have spoken and if Buster stays in the minors another season we might just see a dominate Yukon team like in the days of old.

[Guest]

Fantastic read, i really enjoyed it

[Banackock 8,160]

When I no longer GM, I’ll be a goalie again. 
 

INTERACT BOOM

 

[Erik Summers 451]

Claiming this for week 2 of 4.

[Erik Summers 451]

Claiming this for week 3 of 4

[Renomitsu 934]

Review

I didn't notice too many mistakes overall, but this article runs a little long and WOW does it cover a fair number of topics! I really enjoyed how comprehensive this article was, and the amount of effort you put in to this article (looking through individual box scores for two teams, for example) is readily visible. With any bit this long there are bound to be mistakes, e.g.

 

Quote

 It is hard to explain this collapse,

Quote

but the core was there and a lot of eyes were watching to see what Yukon would be able to do

but I'm not going to focus much on those, because they're pretty hard to prevent without spending excessive time editing. Good job!

[Erik Summers 451]

Final claim for this piece.