Diving into the S69 Playoffs with Advanced Metrics

[DMaximus 1,046]

I’m going to take a look at the Fenwick data up to this point in the VHL season and irresponsibly draw conclusions for the remainder of the season and the playoffs.

 

First, let’s look at the current standings:

North American Conference
PO	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	P	GF	GA		Diff		PCT
1	X -Vancouver Wolves	59	40	18	1	81	188	146		42		0.686
2	Seattle Bears	60	38	19	3	79	180	134		46		0.658
3	New York Americans	60	28	22	10	66	147	155		-8		0.55
4	Toronto Legion	59	28	26	5	61	150	156		-6		0.517
5	Calgary Wranglers	60	26	30	4	56	142	154		-12		0.467
6	D.C. Dragons	60	23	32	5	51	122	168		-46		0.425
European Conference
PO	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	P	GF	GA		Diff		PCT
1	X -Riga Reign	60	39	19	2	80	168	121		47		0.667
2	X -Helsinki Titans	60	37	20	3	77	176	143		33		0.642
3	Moscow Menace	60	31	19	10	72	189	163		26		0.6
4	Malmo Nighthawks	60	31	21	8	70	148	139		9		0.583
5	Prague Phantoms	60	24	31	5	53	159	196		-37		0.442
6	E - HC Davos Dynamo	60	14	42	4	32	96	190		-94		0.267

 

Here’s the Fenwick data for each team. Fenwick counts all non-blocked shot attempts in a game. A shot attempt can be a goal, a shot on goal, a shot that hits the post, or a shot the misses the net.

Fenwick For is shot attempts not blocked by the opponent.

Fenwick Against is how many non-blocked shot attempts your team allows.

Fenwick adds together the team’s Fenwick For and Fenwick Against. If it’s positive your team had more non-blocked shot attempts than the opponent. If it’s negative, your opponent took more non-blocked shot attempts than your team.

Fenwick For Pct is your team’s percentage of all shot attempts in that game.

 

Team Name	Games Played	Fenwick For	Fenwick Against	Total Fenwick	Fenwick For Pct
Calgary Wranglers	60	44.23	49.13	-4.90	47.45
D.C. Dragons	60	39.30	52.03	-12.73	43.64
HC Davos Dynamo	60	34.33	61.67	-27.33	35.96
Helsinki Titans	60	54.62	48.50	6.12	52.84
Malmo Nighthawks	60	46.43	47.92	-1.48	49.58
Moscow Menace	60	57.90	49.02	8.88	54.21
New York Americans	60	53.83	51.68	2.15	50.91
Prague Phantoms	60	57.77	54.17	3.60	51.95
Riga Reign	60	55.43	43.87	11.57	56.36
Seattle Bears	60	52.67	50.63	2.03	51.46
Toronto Legion	59	50.22	53.41	-3.19	48.48
Vancouver Wolves	59	62.95	47.46	15.49	57.24
Grand Total	718	50.79	50.79	0.00	50.00

 

Vancouver is the best offensive team in the league, having an average Fenwick For of 62.95 more than 5 better than the next closest team, Moscow (57.90). Prague’s offensive chops are on display with their 3^rd best total of 57.77.

 

Riga displays their dominance on the defensive side of things leading the league with a low 43.87 Fenwick Against. Vancouver allows a 2^nd best 47.46 shot attempts per game and Malmo is close by in 3^rd with 47.92.

 

Based on the standings and the Fenwick information it seems like the playoff teams, the top 4 teams in each conference, are set. We can look at the head to head Fenwick data to identify difficult matchups and possibly some upsets in the playoffs.

 

Looking at the Fenwick %, anything over 55% is considered elite. This season there are two teams that fall into that category, Vancouver (57.24%) and Riga (56.36%). That could prove to be the finals matchup.

 

Playoff Preview

 

Vancouver vs. Toronto, this potential 1^st round matchup could be more difficult than anticipated for Vancouver. In their 8 games this season, Vancouver only has a Fenwick Pct of 52.12 against Toronto, much lower than their overall percentage of 57.24.

 

Seattle vs. New York, another first round matchup where the favorite needs to be on alert. New York actually has a positive Fenwick rating against Seattle this season. In their 6 games this season, New York has Fenwick Pct of 53.70. Two of those games were completely dominated by New York. Seattle is hoping for Toronto to pass New York in the standings. They perform much better against Toronto with a Fenwick % of 55.01 instead of the 46.30% against New York.

 

The European conference is a little less upset friendly. Riga has played very well against Malmo this season with a Fenwick % of 56.06. Riga could be in trouble if Moscow drops to 4^th place in the conference, they have a much smaller Fenwick % of 51.62 against Moscow.

 

Moscow and Helsinki are very tightly matched as well, with Helsinki being just slightly better with a Fenwick % of 51.04 against Moscow this season. That matchup would be the best series of the 1^st round. The only teams that are more closely matched than Moscow and Helsinki is Vancouver and Riga (Vancouver has a Fenwick % of 50.65 against Riga this season, the closest of any two playoff teams).

 

Malmo would love to make it to 3^rd place as they perform better against Helsinki than they do against Riga (Fenwick % of 48.09 vs. Helsinki, 43.94 vs. Riga).

 

Moving into the 2^nd round, if Vancouver survives, it doesn’t seem to matter much who they face in the 2^nd round. They have a similar Fenwick % against both Seattle (55.35) and New York (55.58) this season. Based on those numbers it looks like Vancouver may have an easier 2^nd round than 1^st round.

 

Riga would be rooting for a Helsinki victory over Moscow, as they fair slightly better vs. Helsinki (52.43) than they do vs. Moscow (51.62).

 

For the finals, Vancouver would prefer for Helsinki to make it through the gauntlet of the European Conference. They have played best against Helsinki (Fenwick % 54.40). Both Moscow and Riga would be a great series against Vancouver, with Riga being the stronger opponent of the two (Riga 50.65, Moscow 51.13).

 

All the data is pointing to a very close and exciting playoffs, with some possible first round upsets. The top teams are pretty closely matched which should make for exciting 2^nd round and finals. We’re primed and ready to see how it all plays out!

 

1,036 words, will claim for 2 weeks.

[Victor 11,043]

So realistically we need to face all 3 teams with as good a Fenwick percentage if we reach the finals. 

[ThePerfectNut 563]

I wasn't joking that New York coud upset Seattle. Who was the dude that told me that they couldn't matchup in the first round tho

[Cxsquared 455]

I'm surprised Riga has the lowest Fenwick Against considering they are 10th in shot blocks. I guess they just don't let the shots get off in the first place.

[DMaximus 1,046]

claiming for 2nd week