RomanesEuntDomus 442 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Why We Need To Change The Draft Lottery Does the league need a change to its drafts lottery system? Many experts around the VHL have asked this question over the last few years and after this years lottery has just happened, going the full three draws, the discussion has started again. And in short: Yes, we do think there should be changes to the lottery system And here is why... The whole system is crooked as it stands right now. Obviously the worst placed team has the highest chance to move down, that's why there is a lottery in the first place. The actual problem are the 2nd and 3rd draws though. Basically the 4th worst team can only win, they get up to three draws to move up or just stay in the same spot, the 3rd placed team on the other hand can lose its spot in every draw. There are two different ways to look at this issue: The chances of finishing #1/#2/#3/#4 or the chances of moving up/down in general. Let's look at the chances of finishing #1-#4 first: - Each team has a 25% chance to finish with the 1st Overall, so no problem there. - If the 3rd or 4th worst team win then there is no second draw becaus no more changes would be possible that don't lead to one of the teams losing two spots - If the worst team won the first draw, then there is a second draw with a 33% chance for the other three to finish with the 2nd Overall, if this draw is won by the 3rd/4th worst team then again there is no third draw because there are no further possible changes without moving someone down more than one spot - Only if the 2nd worst team wind the 2nd draw then there is a 3rd draw with a 50% chance for the 3rd and 4th worst to win it - If the 2nd worst team won the first draw then the situation gets a bit tricky. The new order now is 2-1-3-4, which means there is a second draw, but this draw is only between teams 3 and 4 and it is only for the 3rd pick, because otherwise team 1 would lose more than one spot in the lottery To summarize: The 3rd and 4th worst team have the exact same chance to finish 1st/2nd/3rd/4th, I don't really know if this is fair or not, I guess it depends on how you look at it because it means that a team with what might be a far worse record doesn't have a better chance at any of the spots than the team in front of them. The problem becomes more glaring though if you look at it from a general "moving up/down" perspective like you started to do with you first post. There are just two situations in which the 3rd worst team can move up: They win the first draw (25%) or the worst team wins the first draw and they win the second one (8,33%). The 4th worst team on the other hand has the following chances to move up: - They win the first draw (25%) - Worst teams wins first draw and they win second (8.33%) - Second worst team wins first draw and they win second (12.33%) So the 3rd worst team has a combined chance of 33.25% to move up while the 4th worst team actually has a 45.75% chance of moving up. Now factor in that for the 4th worst team there is no risk of losing a spot while this risk is there for all the other teams, and you have a situation where the 4th worst team goes into the lottery with better odds for pretty much all scenarios than not just the 3rd worst team, but possibly the 2nd worst and worst team as well. Ironically the system we currently use works the other way around than the real lottery in the NHL. The worst teams actually have the lowest propability of having a successful lottery, which isn't how a lottery is supposed to work: Worst Team: - Chance to Keep Spot: 25% - Chance to Move Down: 75% 2nd Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 25% - Chance to Keep Spot: 8.333% - Chance to Move Down: 66.667% 3rd Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 33.333% - Chance to Keep Spot: 21% - Chance to Move Down: 45.667% 4th Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 45.667% - Chance to Keep Spot: 54.333% Your chances to gain a spot through the lottery actually improve the better your regular season record was - and the worse your team was, the higher the chance that you lose a spot! That would be fine if we wanted to reward the teams that are already good, but I don't think that's why we have a lottery. Now let's look at the actual NHL-lottery as a comparison: Worst Team: - Chance to Keep Spot: 25% - Chance to Move Down: 75% 2nd Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 18.8% - Chance to Keep Spot: 25% - Chance to Move Down: 56.2% 3rd Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 14.2% - Chance to Keep Spot: 43.8% - Chance to Move Down: 42% 4th Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 10.7% - Chance to Keep Spot: 58% - Chance to Move Down: 31.3% 5th Worst: - Chance to Move Up: 8.1% - Chance to Keep Spot: 68.7% - Chance to Move Down: 23.2% As you can see the chance to move up gets smaller the better your team finished in the regular season, not higher like it is currently the case with us. This is how a lottery is supposed to work, not the other way around. [This is actually two combined posts that I used in a discussion, I edited them and changed a few parts and I think/hope it now makes for a decent Media Spot ] Edited April 28, 2014 by RomanesEuntDomus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,844 Posted April 27, 2014 Admin Share Posted April 27, 2014 I wanted to reply to this in the lottery thread but wasn't here, then forgot, so anyway. "The worst teams actually have the lowest propability of having a successful lottery, which isn't how a lottery is supposed to work" why not? "That would be fine if we wanted to reward the teams that are already good, but I don't think that's why we have a lottery." why do you think that's not why we have a lottery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesfan036 4,595 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Why are there commas where decimal places are supposed to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Higgins 3,618 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Why are there commas where decimal places are supposed to be? To piss off Mike and Jason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Tortorella 2,653 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Why are there commas where decimal places are supposed to be? Europeans (except maybe Great Britain?) flip flop then around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevo 778 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Why are there commas where decimal places are supposed to be? That's how it's usual in Germany. (If I'm not mistaken, North America uses decimals instead of commas rather alone in the world - but I very well could be wrong here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwfulHomesick 148 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Bill Daly = higgins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesfan036 4,595 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Silly Europeans thinking you are clever with your commas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Silly Europeans thinking you are clever with your commas It's actually how things were written before Americans adapted their own systems. I have old books using commas because thats the way it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RomanesEuntDomus 442 Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 (edited) I wanted to reply to this in the lottery thread but wasn't here, then forgot, so anyway. "The worst teams actually have the lowest propability of having a successful lottery, which isn't how a lottery is supposed to work" why not? "That would be fine if we wanted to reward the teams that are already good, but I don't think that's why we have a lottery." why do you think that's not why we have a lottery? The way I have always understood it is that the purpose of a lottery is to discourage teams from tanking by not guaranteeing them the 1st Overall pick an by giving the worst teams the risk of dropping a spot in general. You accomplish that by doing one draw where the worst teams have a relatively high chance of dropping, but if you do mutiple draws the odds shift more and more in favor of the good teams, which at some point (where that point is exactly is probably a matter of opinion) makes that whole process pretty absurd. And yeah the commas are how we display numbers in europe (and apparently almost everywhere else in the world?), if it bothers you I can change it of course Edited April 28, 2014 by RomanesEuntDomus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,844 Posted April 28, 2014 Admin Share Posted April 28, 2014 Yeah, UK is the exception. Were pretty much like North America except superior in every way. I think the one 25% draw was boring and uneventful. Don't think this makes a massive difference but at least it's unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Svoboda_3 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Content: 2.5/3 966 words. I didn't care for this very much in the sense that it wasn't a story or had any real flow. It was just points being made and scenarios. I think adding things to make this more than just facts could have been beneficial. I do, however agree with the points you made in that we could revise the lottery system.Grammar: 1.75/2 Should have looked this over more. drafts = draft years = year's system And = system, and are = is spot, the 3rd = spot. The 3rd win then = wins, then becaus = because wind = won team = teams (8,33%) = (8.33%) - and no, I don't give a shit if Europeans use commas for different things; I'm not grading according to European rules propability = probablility Appearance: 1/1 Center alignment and all that jazz.Overall: 5.25/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Senior Admin Will 4,660 Posted April 29, 2014 Senior Admin Share Posted April 29, 2014 Content: 2.75/3 This could have been a very nice article if it was edited more to create more of a story, or at least make it read better. Unfortunately, because they were from posts, it ended up being choppy and hard to read at some points. For example: "The problem becomes more glaring though if you look at it from a general "moving up/down" perspective like you started to do with you first post." I'm only going to take .25 off because I feel that you did put a lot of thought into this. It had a lot of potential, just need some refining. Grammar: 1.75/2 Only found one more. While I probably wouldn't have nailed you for writing numbers in Euro style, there is still too much not to dock. one spot in the lottery = one spot in the lottery. (punctuation) Appearance: 1/1 Looks good. Overall: 5.5/6 FINAL: 5/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarch 3,100 Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Claimed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.ed69a7260a477fcf4feead7a0e4b7506.png)
Recommended Posts