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Everything posted by Alex
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Honestly, I would agree to drop it down to 42 for 2 seasons and then back to 40
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Sergio Perez happened, Max won the drivers championship a couple races ago
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1. Underdogs 2. 100% 3. Different league, but probably SV% 4. Would be nice to grab another certain defensemen 5. Stay with it and enjoy the community 7. Honestly I would like it to be McLaren, but it's going to be Ferrari because it's rigged, what the fuck was that penalty!?
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Congrats on a great GM career! It will be different without you, always enjoyed our talks and lastly, thank you for getting me into GMing to begin with! Best of luck with everything!
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The general idea was to make it purely objective, which is why low ends up low. Essentially just because they had approximately 250 less points in an almost dead on average scoring era. There’s no doubt that they were the most dominant defensemen ever, but their shortened time at the position results in their lower stats. I could maybe try adjusting the weight of awards to be exactly 50% of overall, would just be more math and the numbers would look weird. I think a large part of the issue here is that the general assumption is that if the highest scoring players are scoring more the highest scoring defensemen at least have the potential to as well. Which while an assumption should be correct in this case. So as mentioned because the meta period was relatively brief, it did effect their era adjusted scoring, but the impact was dampened due to both playing on either side of it. Another issue is that while we do have so many players scoring over 100 points, it could be feasible that it’s simply due to their being so many high earning players now compared to before? The main point is that those high scoring players are not scoring near as much as early players or meta. It is also worth noting that the early seasons were so high scoring that it skews the entire ratio system, which makes them all outliers and they should just be excluded. This is why Labatte drops so much, but it’s not wrong that the entire reason they lead defensemen in scoring is because of the era they played in.
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So, with the conversation around my previous article, I set out on a mission to figure out a way to adjust for era. After a few hours exploring the internet, the only accurate way to adjust for era within the VHL revealed itself, and was fairly complicated, but I will try to explain it below: Step 1: Identify each season’s top 5 point scorers and the number of points they scored. Step 2: Average out those points for each season. Step 3: Set up a 5 season rolling average for each season, this reduces the impact of outliers. For example, the number used for season 3 was the average of seasons 1 through 5, two seasons each way. For seasons 1 and 96 this was 2 seasons forward and back respectively. Step 4: Determine the overall average number of points for each season. Step 5: Divide a season’s rolling average (step 3) by the overall average to give each season a ratio. Step 6: Divide a player’s total points by the average ratio for the seasons they played in. The main issue with this is that defensemen scoring doesn’t necessarily mimic overall scoring, however we can assume that an increase to the top end of scoring does mean that defensemen scoring would increase, or at a minimum would have had the potential to increase. What this did do is clearly identify 3 kind of well-known peaks in league scoring, specifically from seasons 1-10 (by far the largest), S50-S59, and from S79-S83 (the meta era). The interesting thing here is that while players who played in the meta era did have their totals drop, it really wasn’t by much, given that they would have played on either side of it as well, which were both below average scoring seasons. It is worth noting that in today’s VHL while we do still have a bunch of players crossing the 90-point mark, at the top end it is a below average scoring era in the VHL (by a hair). From what I’ve seen the reasoning here is simply because we do have a bunch of high earning players, who will produce offensively, but will be unlikely to ever hit the high marks set in the earlier seasons. Since the goalie change a few seasons ago scoring has been trending towards average. Please see my pretty graph below: I then went through this with the top 50 scoring defensemen plus a couple Hall of Famers from the S60-S70 window as per Victor’s request. Of the 54 players assessed 25 saw a increase in their point total, and 29 players had their point totals decrease as a result of era adjustment. All of the top 5 players to increase played between S65 and S78, the player that saw the largest increase was Condor Adrienne who played from S68 to 75, which would have had the middle of their career in the early 70’s which was the lowest scoring era in VHL history by a massive margin. Largest Increase: 1. Condor Adrienne (712 +114) @OrbitingDeath 2. Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen (637 +104) @Fire Tortorella 3. Lincoln Tate (611 +103) @Tate 4. Erik Killinger (658 +68) @Peace 5. Roque Davis (638 +66) @Josh As for players seeing their points decrease when adjusted for era, they all played within the first 11 seasons of the VHL, notably when essentially every offensive record was set, so that makes sense. Most notably here is that Sterling Labatte saw the largest decrease as their point total dropped by 103 points. Largest Decrease: 1. Sterling Labatte (669 -103) @sterling 2. Shawn Crowley (519 -82) 3. Danny Tremblay (506 -80) 4. Joey Kendrick (483 -78) @Kendrick 5. Jochen Walser (574 -43) @marshall_222 We did also see some considerable movement in the defensemen scoring leaderboard when we adjust for era, namely that Skor McFleury goes up to the number 1 spot, Pierre Emile Bouchard jumps into the 2nd spot, Japindeer Singh is the only player to have their point total decrease and remain in the top 5, and Condor Adrienne moves up to 4th. Era Adjusted Scoring Leaders: 1. Skor McFleury (768 +50) @Alex 2. Pierre Emile Bouchard (726 +56) @Gaikoku-hito 3. Japindeer Singh (714 -37) @8Ovechkin8 4. Condor Adrienne (712 +114) @OrbitingDeath 5. Bo Johansson (711 +49) @Shindigs With that being said I made the decision to re-work the formula to determine a statistical score, essentially using the VHFL scoring but inserting era adjusted scoring instead of assists and keeping the initial goal totals to still have more weight there, and because I don’t have the time to do more math. I did drop the weight of a goal to 1.5 (instead of 3) since they are counted in the era adjusted point totals already. Era Adjusted Stat Rank: 1. Skor McFleury @Alex 2. Brian Payne @Scurvy 3. Hard Markinson @STZ 4. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 5. Alexander Valiq @Koradek 6. Jake Thunder @Thunder 7. Pierre Emile Bouchard @Gaikoku-hito 8. Japinder Singh @8Ovechkin8 9. Battre Sandstrom @Acydburn 10. Daniel Braxton @Jericho As for awards through conversations with Victor I made the decision to adjust the weight of individual awards to better show their overall value (Continental Cup = 100, Labatte/MVP = 75, ROTY/Funk = 35, Other = 50), since this changes things slightly, here’s your top 10. Award Leaders: 1. Conner Low @Smarch 2. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 3. Sterling Labatte @sterling 4. Phil Hamilton @Phil 5. Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen @Fire Tortorella 6. Jochen Walser @marshall_222 7. Skor McFleury @Alex 8. Ryan Sullivan @Advantage 9. Elijah Incognito @Strummer 10. Daniel Braxton @Jericho As for overall ranking I made the decision to add a bonus for statistical leaders (actual goals, assists, points, hits, and SB) and players with awards named after them, giving said players a bonus of 100 (maximum of 1 bonus) as kind of an impact/legacy bonus. The top 10 defensemen with this era adjusted and improved system are: 1. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 2. Skor McFleury @Alex 3. Sterling Labatte @sterling 4. Phil Hamilton @Phil 5. Brian Payne @Scurvy 6. Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen @Fire Tortorella 7. Hard Markinson @STZ 8. Japinder Singh @8Ovechkin8 9. Jake Thunder @Thunder 10. Daniel Braxton @Jericho Lastly since the conversation around last article, Conner Low ends up with 478 era adjusted points (+4), ends up 53rd statistically, 1st for awards, gains a legacy bonus for having the most Labattes, and ends up 14th overall. Thank you for reading, while the era adjustment formula is sound, if you have any comments or suggestions to improve the scoring system I’m all ears! 1041 words (2 weeks)
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1. Probably, it’s also the most common playoff matchup ever! 2. a wildcard team will win the first round 3. A huge coming out season for Johnny Tsunami! 4. average, I always just do average 5. A lot of retention falls on M GMs, maybe more attention from VHL teams could help 6. the Buffalo Sabres are in a playoff spot!!!!
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Ironically no pure meta players outside of Nalwa even cracked the list to begin with. I went back and forth on how to approach era adjustment if I wanted to go that route and came to the conclusion that it’s minimal if anything. Since while scoring was up in the late 70’s/early 80’s for example, in the early seasons high earning players would produce at levels higher than today, despite lower league wide scoring. Essentially came to the conclusion that each era has its pros and cons, and overall they kind of balance out.
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Decided to see where I could go with this and decided to start re-doing it with Labattes and MVPs weighted heavier than other awards, and with a increased weighting to benefit Low (Labatte/MVP - 75, Wylde, Valiq, Leadership, etc... - 50, Funk/ROTY - 35), this saw Low rise slightly, but they are still a ways behind the top end of the board. Again, the main issue with Low isn't their awards, it's strictly their totals as a defensemen are NOT CLOSE to the top end of the board, I'm not saying they don't deserve to be in the conversation. Even if you assume that they would have won the Valiq and Wylde every season, which again they wouldn't have, they end up 4th. I'm not saying that Low was a shit defensemen, just that their statistical totals as a defensemen tarnish any bid to be considered the best defensemen in VHL history. They are however, probably still a top 10 player in VHL history and can be considered the most dominant defensemen ever. I started doing this exercise strictly to try and figure out an objective way to rank players, that removes any bias due to legacy and/or impact. I tried to make the scoring as reasonable as possible, IF you reduce the SB factor to 0.2 (from 0.3), older players do improve slightly, but there's no movement in the top 5, Low goes up to 14th.
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This would kind of just be grasping at straws, and would likely open the can of worms that is further era adjustment which would be way to over complicated, as while league scoring is slightly up now, the conditions present in the earlier seasons favoured high earning players to produce at levels much higher than today. If I had the time to actually work out that formula you would likely see every early player's ranking plummet. When strictly looking at defensemen, Low just really isn't there, while they were one of the most dominant players ever, the shortened time frame causes their ranking to drop, they do create an argument that is interesting, but it relies solely on legacy and 'What-ifs'.
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We may have to agree to disagree here, their total stats as a defensemen are nowhere near the top, and while winning a lot of awards does make a difference. Even if you assume that the modern awards existed at the time and they won all three each season (which by modern standards and a quick look at the indexes they wouldn't have) they end up 5th.
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I'm not saying he isn't a top 10 defensemen, but rather that strictly based off career totals and awards he is 21st, even if you given them a +200 point boost for points per game they are only 11th. They may very well be a top 10 player in VHL history, but their shortened time as a defensemen does minimize the argument that they are the best defensemen. If they played out their career as a defensemen they are probably 1st, but given that they only played 5 seasons in the position and their statistical totals are nowhere near the top, I really can't see the argument. Were they one of the most dominant defensemen ever, yes, but strictly from a statistical and award based standpoint they aren't near the best.
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He was initially left out due to him being 127th in defensemen scoring, for the sake of argument I added him in and he comes out at 50th statistically (only ahead of joey Kendrick), 1st for awards (tied with Adrienne), and 21st overall. Those stats are just his defensemen numbers, not career total. which is kind of odd given that others who position swapped have their career totals
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After my article last week, and some further discussions, I came to the conclusion that there is a simple and objective way to rank defensemen across eras. It is simply to consider them all equal, while early season players did produce more (especially early in their career), there was less awards for defensemen at that time (it did also used to be more common for players to win 2-4 Labattes in a row and there were other awards that don’t exist anymore). With that being said, I decided to test this with the top 50 defensemen based off scoring, here’s what I found: For career statistics I made the decision to use the same scoring as fantasy, which for defensemen is 3 points for a goal, 1.5 for a assist, 0.3 for a hit and shot blocked, and 0.2 for +/-. There was a couple interesting surprises here, as Hard Markinson @stz came in the number one spot, Brian Payne slotted in the number 3 spot thanks to having the most hits of every player assessed, lastly Sterling Labatte ended up 6th, specifically due to their relatively poor defensive stats. Statistical Leaders: 1. Hard Markinson @STZ 2. Skor McFleury @Alex 3. Brian Payne @Scurvy 4. Alexander Valiq @Koradek 5. Japinder Singh @8Ovechkin8 6. Sterling Labatte @sterling 7. Daniel Braxton @Jericho 8. Jake Thunder @Thunder 9. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 10. Battre Sandstrom @Acydburn The other thing I had to consider was award wins and Continental Cups, this was the part that I struggled with scoring in this system. Eventually I settled on 100 points for a cup and 50 points for an individual award. This saw a couple players gain a lot of points and propel themselves up the rankings, specifically Condor Adrienne, who was 9th statistically, but had a cup and 12 individual awards in their career. They were followed by Sterling Labatte and Phil Hampton. Cup/Award Leaders: 1. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 2. Sterling Labatte @sterling 3. Phil Hamilton @Phil 4. Skor McFleury @Alex 5. Jochen Walser 6. Hari Singh Nalwa @Dil 7. Elijah Incognito @Strummer 8. Ryan Sullivan @Advantage 9. Matt Bentley @Victor 10. Japinder Singh @8Ovechkin8 Overall, we had one interesting thing show up, players from before S59 (when defensemen awards expanded to include the Wylde) made up exactly half of the top 10 defensmen. The most notable thing here was that Ryan Sullivan, the player who was the number one defensemen in VSN’s top 75 ends up 10th here and behind all of Sterling Labatte, Phil Hamilton, Japinder Singh, and Daniel Braxton, all of whom were included in and ranked below Sullivan in the top 75. The top 10 defensemen based on this scoring are: 1. Sterling Labatte @sterling 2. Condor Adrienne @OrbitingDeath 3. Skor McFleury @Alex 4. Phil Hamilton @Phil 5. Hard Markinson @STZ 6. Japinder Singh @8Ovechkin8 7. Brian Payne @Scurvy 8. Daniel Braxton @Jericho 9. Jake Thunder @Thunder 10. Ryan Sullivan @Advantage Honourable mentions: Pierre Emile Boucard @Gaikoku-hito (11th), Hari Singh Nalwa @Dil (14th), Alexander Valiq (15th), Fabio Jokinen @jRuutu (17th), Tui Sova @v.2 (18th), Battre Sandstrom @Acydburn (19th), Jake Wylde @STZ (21st) I did have a few takeaways/questions I was left with after this experiment; 1) I do think the scoring used was fair, and seems to balance out across eras, 2) I do think that there’s an argument to be made that defensemen since S75 are some of the best the VHL has ever seen, and likely get ranked lower due to the legacy of those older players (like Valiq), 3) Players from earlier seasons typically won more awards, 4) Lastly, one thing I noticed is that the bar for getting in the HOF seems to have been way lower in the early seasons. Anyways, thank you for reading my rambling. 585 words
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1. Probably 2nd to 4th, don’t really mind either way, we’ve been good against Moscow this season and the wildcard could play to our benefit. 2. probably Forum Content 3. not really, we’re kind of handcuffed by what STHS gives us. 4. not really 5. They plead the 5th 8. Probably FIFA in general
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I set out this week trying to figure out a way to do two things;1) Figure out objectively where Skor McFleury would rank among the best defensemen, and 2) map out an accurate era adjustment formula. However, that turned out to be fairly difficult, the two main factors that made it difficult was that early season indexes are missing (S1-S19), and there was only 1 pure defensemen award prior to S59. If we go off the S75 top 75 players list we end up with the below ranking for the top 10 we end up with this list: 1. Ryan Sullivan 2. Sterling Labatte 3. Daniel Braxton 4. Japinder Singh 5. Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen 6. Tomas Jenskovic 7. Alexander Valiq 8. Jochen Walser 9. Phil Hampton 10. Elijah Incognito 11. Jeff Hamilton 12. David Walcott 13. Fabio Jokinen 14. Joseph McWolf 15. Matt Bentley 16. Lincoln Tate The main thing to note there is that the list is only up until S75 and notably excludes both Condor Adrienne who likely slots in comfortably in the top 10 as well as Hard Markinson, who would likely be in the same area, but the lack of a cup likely drops them a couple spots as well as multiple other defensemen that have had spectacular careers in the past 20 seasons. One thing that made placing McFleury difficult was how to weight the whole 9th season thing, the only player in the top 16 as of S75 who played 9 seasons was Sterling Labatte. But with that being said the general conclusion I came to was that we can weight S80 players on a equal level since while the 9 season players do play an extra season, they start their rookie season at a lower TPE (compared to other high earning players), and have to navigate a much harsher regression, which results in them being a lower TPA later in their careers. The other main question is the impact of hybrid attributes, which we’ll just ignore. Lastly, for simplicity’s sake we’ll just assume that all players are on an equal playing field with regard to era, even though players in early seasons that were high earning produced at levels that we don’t see today. Strictly based off of production Skor McFleury slots in 3rd behind Sterling Labatte, and Japinder Singh, and joins Singh as the only 2 players in league history to have 700+ points, 1000+ hits, and 1000+ shots blocked. The main thing that would push McFleury down the order would be having fewer individual awards then some previous greats (this is kind of another thing that makes it difficult to compare eras as it was much more common for players to win awards across multiple seasons in the early seasons). As of right now I would probably pencil McFleury somewhere in the 6 to 10 range, but it’s hard to know a 100% certain spot, especially with all the above reasons. When season 100 hits VSN will have it’s work cut out trying to map out a list, but it should be interesting none the less. 514 words
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1. Still confused on how the Warsaw/Vancouver trade was allowed through… 2. gives us additional depth 3. Philadelphia since I was the GM 4. Just more consistency 5. Seems a little bit slower which is weird 7. Cookie dough
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1/2 on the day of getting things vetoed lol
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It does put Malmo over the cap though… 6 mil out, 9 mil in (ignoring Bobbly because backup exemption). Malmo only has 1 mil in space so 8 mil would be the max they could bring in here.
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It’s because one of the players has already retired.
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Umm did someone tell Toronto the deadline was 5 and a half hours ago?
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I do find the loophole almost hilarious strictly because the only reason it exists is because the assumption was that nobody (fuck that's ironic) would trade for something another team doesn't have...