Claimed:Best Draft Top 5's Ever [Final 6/6]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

 

The Best Draft Top 5's in VHL History... by Math!

 

Last week, I took a look at the worst draft Top 5’s of all-time. However, that’s not what most people came to see. Today, I present the top draft Top 5’s of all-time, as presented by my mathematical model.

 

As a quick reminder, here’s how the math works. First, I found the average of the first five players in a given year’s draft, for an “average” top 5 draftee. Then, I found the average for all top five players from up to three seasons before and up to three seasons after that draft year. That means that Season 14 draftees will only be compared to Season 11 through 17 draftees. Season 27 will only be compared to Season 24 through Season 30, and so on. (This is adjusted slightly for Seasons 1-3 and 35-37, but not enough to majorly effect results.)

 

From there, I divided the single draft year by the seven-year average and found a percentage that I’m calling the Above/Below Number – how much does a draft live up to the seasons around it? A 100% rate means that the top 5’s average is exactly the same as the seasons around it. An 80% rate means that a draft’s top 5 gained 20% fewer TPE than the drafts around it; a 120% rate means it gained 20% more.

 

Now, with that out of the way once again, here are the best Top 5’s in the draft of all-time. And, perhaps strangely, this one is an affair of pairs.

 

5. Season 14

Above/Below Number: 127.01%

1^st Pick:    Toronto Legion: RW Malcolm Kelly (650 TPE)

2^nd Pick:   Seattle Bears: D Emerson Hrynyk (664 TPE)

3^rd Pick:    New York Americans: D Ryley Dawson (554 TPE)

4^th Pick:   Riga Reign: C Lukas Gagnon (327 TPE)

5^th Pick:   Calgary Wranglers: LW J.D. Stormwall (656 TPE)

 

More than any other draft on these two countdowns, this is the one that is most effected by the way I conducted the math. Remember, I took into account the three seasons before and three seasons after. The S11 through S13, and S15 through S17 drafts were pitiful; those are the ones this draft is compared to. Meanwhile, it just misses being compared to S10 and S18, two much, much better drafts. Season 14 was consistent for its time period, and it even has a Hall of Famer, but I wouldn’t put it Top 5 all-time subjectively. Season 7 was next on the list, and despite coming earlier, it actually has a higher average TPE per player by 60.

 

4. Season 19

Above/Below Number: 135.71%

1^st Pick:    Toronto Legion: James Bencharski (950 TPE)

2^nd Pick:   Madrid Thunder (from Davos, via Toronto): Jaroslav Oslig (657 TPE)

3^rd Pick:    Seattle Bears: Phil Gerrard (994 TPE)

4^th Pick:   Toronto Legion (from Helsinki): Gabriel Rheaume (217 TPE)

5^th Pick:   Riga Reign: Kristian Carlsson (844 TPE)

 

The Vasteras/Madrid/Stockholm franchise getting screwed via drafts is a running theme of these articles, it seems. While Oslig is a solid player, he’s not a Hall of Famer like Gerrard after him, or even to the level of Carlsson. Still, minus Rheaume, it’s easy to see why this is one of the top drafts of all-time, especially compared to its contemporaries. The average for a Top 5 draftee in Season 19 comes in at 732.4 TPE. Excluding Season 18 (that comes in a second), there isn’t a single other Top 5 between the start of the league and Season 24 that tops the 700 TPE average mark. Even after this draft, no other draft would meet its Top 5 average until Season 27.

 

3. Season 18

Above/Below Number: 143.12%

1^st Pick:    HC Davos Dynamo (from Helsinki): Daisuke Kanou (979 TPE)

2^nd Pick:   Toronto Legion (from Davos): Cedric Pollack (273 TPE)

3^rd Pick:    New York Americans: Jukka Hakkinen (702 TPE)

4^th Pick:   Seattle Bears (via New York, from Calgary): Anton Brekker (777 TPE)

5^th Pick:   Riga (from Madrid) Reign: Olivier Scarlett (1047 TPE)

 

For many around the boards, Season 18 holds the general consensus as the best draft of all-time. Much of that, though, is due to late round steals, such as Jardy Bunclewirth. Looking exclusively at the top five, however, it falls slightly below its counterparts. Cedric Pollack is an obvious bust in that two slot for the Legion, but I’m more intrigued by Hakkinen and Brekker. For Hall of Famers, they actually don’t have as much TPE as one might expect; Hakkinen would be passed among third overall picks in TPE the very next season (Gerrard), and Brekker would be passed for fourth overall picks in S20 (D_A’s underperforming Lars Intranquilo). Despite being one of the two non-HOFers, Scarlett is the true star here, only the second Top 5 selection ever to reach 1000 TPE.

 

2. Season 27

Above/Below Number: 151.71%

1^st Pick:    HC Davos Dynamo: Satan (737 TPE)

2^nd Pick:   Calgary Wranglers: Alexander Chershenko (1273 TPE)

3^rd Pick:    Toronto Legion: Nic Riopel (1086 TPE)

4^th Pick:   Seattle Bears (from Riga): Elijah Incognito (956 TPE)

5^th Pick:   HC Davos Dynamo (from Helsinki): David Smalling (969 TPE)

 

Talk about a Dream Team. Featuring many of the same members that made Season 18 such a success, Season 27 followed that up with an even better showing. This draft set many records at the time: Most TPE total for a Top 5, highest average for a Top 5, first time with multiple players above 1000 TPE, tying the most Hall of Famers in the Top 5. And strangely, even with his late inactive spell, you can’t really even call Bushito’s Satan a bust – he did lead Davos to a title in S31, after all. And unlike the draft that nominally comes in first on this list, this one had depth, as Hall of Famer Phil Rafter went sixth, and seventh and eighth (Emerson Byer and Ying Qin) each won championships. Overall, it's probably the best draft of all-time.

 

1. Season 28

Above/Below Number: 155.93%

1^st Pick:    Calgary Wranglers: Volodymyr Rybak (1134 TPE)

2^nd Pick:   Toronto Legion: Alexander Labatte (1300 TPE)

3^rd Pick:    Calgary Wranglers (from Davos via Vasteras): Ryan Sullivan (1074 TPE)

4^th Pick:   Toronto Legion (from Vasteras): Connor Evans (609 TPE)

5^th Pick:   Riga Reign: Miles Larsson (1041 TPE)

 

But the single best Top 5 of all-time came one season later, and it’s not hard to see with all of that red and all of those four digit numbers. In every draft between the beginning of the league and Season 27, including the four already featured as top drafts, there were only seven players reaching 1000 TPE combined. There were four in the top five picks alone here. The last time the top TPE list was updated all four of those players were in the Top 25 all-time, even with recent inflation. And Connor Evans is no slouch either; he would finish with two Continental Cups. The draft may have fallen off a bit after the Top 5, but with a group like this, it’s hard not to argue it as one of the best drafts of all-time.

 

Next Week: Some statistical anomalies I found interesting, as well as the list in full.

[Mike 708]

S3 IMO

[Phil 5,119]

dam... replace that shitty first overall of Satan with Rafter [1034 TPE] (who was picked 6th OA) and S27 is almost identically good to S28! 

 

Great article! Neat to see Gerrard up there. 

 

The true first gen TPE record belongs to me, bitches.

 

 

And I totally agree S27 was the best draft of all-time. So true. RIGHTEOUS
 

 

Edited September 25, 2015 by Phil

[Kendrick 4,741]

I only have 1 player in there despite having the most TPE all-time. Largely because of the GM rule, but thats funny that Kelly is the only one that I got in there haha.

[eaglesfan036 4,602]

wow that s28 draft was so good

 

Also who was Toronto's GM in S18 and S19? How did they manage to draft 2 players who only made it to the 200s in tpe in the top 5 of the leagues best drafts?

[Kendrick 4,741]

wow that s28 draft was so good

 

Also who was Toronto's GM in S18 and S19? How did they manage to draft 2 players who only made it to the 200s in tpe in the top 5 of the leagues best drafts?

Believe it or not that might have been David Knight. Because I retired Malcolm Kelly in S17, but before that Knight traded me to Helsinki where I recreated. So unless David stepped down in the two weeks after that he was still the mastermind in that clusterfuck.

[scoop 3,429]

Jardy Bunclewirth was a S16 draftee. Guys like Chouinard and Clarence were the late-round steals of the S18 draft.

[scoop 3,429]

wow that s28 draft was so good

 

Also who was Toronto's GM in S18 and S19? How did they manage to draft 2 players who only made it to the 200s in tpe in the top 5 of the leagues best drafts?

David

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

Jardy Bunclewirth was a S16 draftee. Guys like Chouinard and Clarence were the late-round steals of the S18 draft.

 

One of those, knew people were always talking about steals with that draft but had written enough and didn't bother to check

[Baozi 1,658]

Lets count cup wins by top 5 drafts!

[Tylar 219]

Content: 3/3 - Interesting read. The S28 draft was pretty damn good and I was apart of it with Hodgson although nowhere near the top 5 . The teams in the top five of S27 must've been pretty happy with what they had/got. 

Grammar: 2/2 - Nothing

Appearance: 1/1 - Pretty.

Overall: 6/6

Edited September 25, 2015 by Tylar

[CoachReilly 688]

Claimed