N.A. Conference Playoff Odds [1/2]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

 

Who Emerges Victorious in North America?

 

We’re getting up near halfway through the VHL regular season, and you know what that means. No, there’s no All-Star or Olympic break (damn you IOC!), but rather time to look towards the end of the season and make wild, baseless predictions!

 

This season, most of the fun is happening in the North American Conference, where seemingly every team is trying their best to capture one of the conference’s three playoff spots. For a while, even defending champion Quebec City was on the outside looking in, and as it stands, last year’s third place team (Calgary) would gain a much-coveted bye as the top team in the conference.

 

But will these trends stand until the end of the season? We decided to take a look at some aspects of each team in the conference – current roster, trade bait, and remaining schedule – and see just how likely it will be for each team to be in the playoffs at the end of the season.

 

 Calgary Wranglers – Currently 1st, 20-6-1, 41 points

 

Current Roster: There is perhaps no more underrated player in the VHL today than Wranglers center Marc-Alexandre Leblanc. The team’s leading goal scorer with 18, Leblanc is the centerpiece of a Wranglers first line that was completely remade over the offseason, with Motherfucker Sharpe and Shawn Gretzky coming over from Davos. While those two players may not have been the world destroyers that Calgary fans expected over the offseason, they’ve been enough to prop up a weak second line.

 

Like last year, though, the real value on the Wranglers current roster comes with the defensemen and between the pipes. As expected of a former first overall pick, Felix Savard is first among all defensemen with 12 goals and third with 31 points, and Luka Volkov also sits among the top ten of all defensemen with 25 points. Elijah Dotran, meanwhile, is 10th in shots blocked with 56. And while Jacob’s save percentage may be only fourth at .929, that work of the defense in front of him and a relative lack of shots faced has him second in GAA at 1.67, more than good enough for first in the conference.

 

Trade Market: The Wranglers gave up three years of firsts for Sharpe and Gretzky in the offseason, so I wouldn’t expect too terribly much from them as it comes up to the deadline. If they’re going to make a move, I would expect it to be for offensive depth on the second line, with possibly someone like Dotran or Volkov shipped out of town. But even that is a stretch.

 

Remaining Schedule: This is what hurts the Wranglers; we don’t particularly know how they’re going to fare against the league’s top teams. Sure, they’ve played the Legion eight times and taken five of those games, and a current 3-0 record against the Titans is nothing to sneeze at either. But they’ve only played the Reign and Bears once a piece (losing to Riga and beating Seattle in OT), and they have a 1-2-1 record against Quebec City through four games so far. I’m afraid we don’t entirely know how they’re going to fare against those top teams, and we might not find out for a while; they play neither Seattle nor Riga again until after the halfway mark.

 

Playoff Odds: 80%. They have the lead already, and I would expect Sharpe in particular to only play better from here on out.

 

 Quebec City Meute – Currently 2nd, 16-8-4, 36 points

 

Current Roster: This is much the same team that took home the title last season, but they’re a year further into depreciation, and a year further removed from their prime. Sure, players like Diana Maxwell train well enough to overcome those deficiencies, and players like Fabio Jokinen and Lee King Snatch have just started to decline. Still, one comes away from watching the Meute play thinking that this is a team that just can’t quite dominate as they have the past three regular seasons, especially when you see not a single Meute player among the top ten goal and assist leaders. Could the loss of Fook Yu be hurting them more than they’re letting on?

 

Once again, it’s Apollo Skye keeping the Meute afloat, registering third-best marks in both save percentage (.930) and GAA (1.77). That’s despite a heavy workload with a league-leading 1,699 total minutes played. At some point, you’d think Skye’s age would catch up to him, but even four seasons removed from his MVP, he’s still goaltending with the best of them.

 

Trade Market: With rebuilding around the corner, and with a highly competitive North American conference that has seemingly everybody looking at now as their window of contention, I don’t see the Meute making many moves at the deadline. Not that they could anyway – Stockholm holds Quebec’s first this upcoming offseason – but what you see is what you get for Quebec this year.

 

Remaining Schedule: As mentioned, the Meute have played 4 games so far against the Wranglers, but they have a lot still to show against the other North American teams. In particular, the matchups against the Bears should be interesting moving forward, as Quebec has yet to pick up a win against Seattle in three games so far this season. The Meute have faced off against the Dynamo 6 times this season, winning 5 as would be expected, but on the other hand, they’ve gone 0-3-1 against league-leading Riga. I’d call it a moderate, balanced schedule moving forward.

 

Playoff Odds: 85%. Age is catching up with them, but they still have the most first line talent, and a decent schedule remaining.

 

 Seattle Bears – Currently 3rd, 16-9-2, 34 points

 

Current Roster: Originally, this wasn’t quite supposed to be Seattle’s time to move up the standings, but tired of losing, the front office made it their time. Out went draft picks, and in came Fook Yu and Peter Quill in the offseason to supplement an offensive attack that already included Mattias Forsberg and Gabriel McAllister. So far, it has been a solid fit, though not a home run. While McAllister has continued his upward trajectory, tied for second in the conference with 18 goals, Quill’s 32 points are possibly slightly over expectations that management had for him, while Yu’s 23 points are slightly under.

 

The main interest, though, comes in goal. Mist4ke was supposed to be the cure to Key Perought’s ills in Seattle, but so far this season, his .913 save percentage though 24 games has not been up to par. The calls to bring in recently-signed Vernon von Axelberry would be loud and clear… if only von Axelberry didn’t have a similar .914 save percentage in his appearances so far this year. If one of the two can be up with the Jacobs and Skyes of the world through the rest of the season, this team’s going places.

 

Trade Market: If somebody’s going to make a future trade in the conference, I think the Bears are the most likely candidate. The GM hasn’t been shy about pulling the trigger on any deal he thinks would make the team immediately better before, and many observers think they need a little more offensive firepower to go over the top. It also wouldn’t surprise anyone to see one of the team’s two goalies move, if they can find a suitable taker.

 

Remaining Schedule: The Bears have quite possibly played the most balanced schedule in the league to this point – they’ve played New York 5 times (going 3-1-1), and no other team more than 4 times. One of those 4 time teams, though, is the Reign, where they went a respectable 2-2 so far this year. Having 6 games left against each the Express and the Vikings may certainly help their cause, those it may not be a stretch to say that their season will be decided in their remaining games against Calgary, who they play 7 more times.

 

Playoff Odds: 60%. They need to prove that they can sustain winning over a full season still. Goalie regression to the mean and current talent, though, are on their side.

 

 Toronto Legion – Currently 4th, 14-8-5, 33 points

 

Current Roster: This was supposed to be the year the Legion made the leap, and the talent on the squad bears that out. With Sokolov entering his fifth year, Ironside and Reinholdt entering their fourth, and Boeser and Lane entering their fifth, this is supposed to be the squad that carries Toronto past the dominant Quebec team. However, in recent days, that core’s updating has left a little to be desired. As it stands, Ironside is the only one above 500 TPE, leaving Toronto without a true skater star. That has been reflected in the scoring charts, where Bo Boeser’s 16 goals and 32 points are both team leaders, and not a single Legion player is top ten in either goals or assists.

 

That’s not to say that the Legion don’t have a star, though, as Torstein Ironside might very well be the Comeback Player of the Year and a bonafide MVP candidate through his 25 games. His .935 save percentage is 4 points higher than his next closest competitor, Skye, and his 1.88 GAA isn’t half bad for someone who sees more shots per game than any goalie mentioned so far, either. It’s not a stretch to say that if the Legion are going to make noise this year, it’s going to be the goalie who takes them there.

 

Trade Market: For the Legion, the trade market already happened! Announced a couple days ago, Toronto has shipped off two second round picks to Davos for Guntis Petenis, the award-winning defenseman previously of many teams. Petenis will certainly help the team’s talent level slotting in next to Sokolov on the blue line, and he provides a veteran presence to a Legion team that needs it. They also didn’t give up anything of value to get him. If there’s one quibble, it’s that offense, not defense, is Toronto’s greatest need, but you don’t pass on a veteran star if you can get him for cheap.

 

Remaining Schedule: As mentioned above, the Legion have played the Wranglers 8 times; they’ve also played the Bears and Americans three times each. This can be both a good and a bad thing – it means likely an easier schedule down the stretch, but also fewer chances to directly move up against teams they’ll realistically be competing against for a playoff spot. Otherwise, the schedule is a mixed bag – they have a combined 15 games left against easier teams in Stockholm and Cologne, but also 14 games against last year’s finals competitors in Quebec and Riga, more than other North American competitors.

 

Playoff Odds: 60%. They’ve proven they can win, unlike the Bears. However, given the current talent level, it’s on Ironside to keep up his hot play.

 

 New York Americans – Currently 5th, 14-10-3, 31 points

 

Current Roster: These are the overachievers, similar to last year’s Bears squad. The Americans are over .500 despite having just one player over 350 TPE, that being forward Takashi Fujimoto. Despite that raw talent discrepancy, though, the Americans have been one of the hottest offensive teams in the league, particularly on the first line. The aforementioned Fujimoto is first among non-Riga players with 23 goals, and rookies Sergei Komarov and Casey Jones are second and third among non-Riga players with 29 and 27 assists, respectively. For a team that only has 5 non-CPU skaters, everyone is contributing.

 

That hot start even extends to goal, where Ike Arkander is the early favorite (alongside Komarov) for Rookie of the Year. His .927 save percentage is good for fifth in the league above strong veterans like Markus King and Mist4ke, and his 14 wins are more than most people probably expected as well. His 2.62 GAA isn’t bad for someone facing many more shots per game than his North American peers, either.

 

Trade Market: Ultimately, I believe the New York front office knows that now isn’t the time to go for it all. The ride is nice, but I think it’s more likely that someone like Fujimoto gets shipped off than it is for the Americans to bring someone in. If they do, though, they certainly have the cap space and the playing time, particularly for another forward to pair with Fujimoto and Komarov.

 

Remaining Schedule: This is probably why the Americans have stayed near the top of the standings. Of their 27 games played, 10 have come against the trio of the Express, Vikings and Dynamo, against whom they’ve gone a combined 9-1-0. That isn’t to say that they can’t beat the top teams – they’ve beaten the Bears twice in five games, after all – but 5 games remaining against Toronto and Helsinki, 6 against Riga, and a full 8 against the Wranglers will show this team where they’re really at.

 

Playoff Odds: 20%. Stranger things have happened, particularly with so many head-to-head games left against their NA competitors. But it’s an uphill battle for the young team.

 

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

2000+ words, for Gabriel McAllister the weeks of:

 

October 23

October 30

November 6

November 13

[diamond_ace 3,112]

80+85+60+60+20=305

 

I honestly didn't expect it to match up that closely to 300. Then again it's you so I guess I shouldn't be surprised, you always put in work to make sure these things are accurate

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

14 minutes ago, diamond_ace said:

80+85+60+60+20=305

 

I honestly didn't expect it to match up that closely to 300. Then again it's you so I guess I shouldn't be surprised, you always put in work to make sure these things are accurate

 

I had it 300 but wanted to make Seattle and Toronto equal and forgot to adjust

[Beaviss 4,958]

@CowboyinAmerica do you play hots?

[Gooningitup 1,290]

I dont think anyone on New York cares if we make it this year. Being close just shows were a great young team on the rise.

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

Great article, NA conference is lit this year. Way more interesting than EU

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

16 hours ago, Beaviss said:

@CowboyinAmerica do you play hots?

 

Nope just picked a random picture.

[Beaviss 4,958]

1 hour ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

 

Nope just picked a random picture.

 

Damn  

[Da Trifecta 1,902]

1 hour ago, Beaviss said:

 

Damn  

 

I do

[Beaviss 4,958]

5 minutes ago, KGR said:

 

I do

 

Add me! 

 

Beaviss #1238

[hedgehog337 3,483]

REVIEW:

 

I'm still waiting for a your article about EU conference 

 

As for this article, you were pretty much spot on. Skye pulls a savior for Quebec and brought them to the finals; Petenis hepled Toronto; Calgary did fine, although your prediction about Sharpe was not correct enough (in point wise) and Seattle failed due a lack of a star goalie. NA conference was entertaining again, and I expect to see same in the next season so good luck to your team. 

 

@CowboyinAmerica

Edited December 4, 2017 by hedgehog337