Who is Going Number One? [1/2]

[Tagger 2,722]

There are four players in this draft who I can feasibly see being taken with the first overall selection currently held by the Seattle Bears. But who’s going to be the one to go at number one? Here are the breakdowns of those four players and how they’ve been doing to this point.

 

Samuel Gate – The One Who Leads The Way

 

Currently the player with the most TPE in this draft class, Gate’s lead over Thompson and the others will likely continue through to the draft thanks to a more productive achievement tracker along with other miscellaneous point tasks. One of the things that’s interesting about Gate’s rise to prominence in this field though is that while he is leading the league in TPE, he hasn’t really achieved that through traditional means. Through the eleven weeks that Gate has been active, he’s actually only made the TPE cap in one of those weeks (Week ending May 27^th). There’s two ways that you can look at this, while he’s not necessarily earning as much of the capped TPE as someone like Cast or Sterling, the fact that he’s still at the top of the TPE standings shows that he’s willing to engage in and have success with a lot of the league’s uncapped opportunities (something that is occasionally ignored even by the more veteran members). Gate has definitely been earning more capped TPE as the draft has drawn closer, but it will be interesting to see if he’s making the weekly cap on a more consistent basis after the draft, something that he may have to do if he wants to maintain the TPE lead.

 

Podrick Cast – The One With Unprecedented Success

 

On pure TPE numbers, Cast is currently down by quite a bit on Gate and Thompson, but most of the reasoning behind this is because he entered the league a week later than the pair (missing out on a potential 12 TPE) along with missing out on the yearly PTs that he couldn’t do since he wasn’t in the league by the start of Season 59. After his first week where he made 10 TPE, Cast has gone on to make the TPE cap every week since, so his current earning levels are certainly not the reason why he’s currently behind Gate and Thompson. The thing that Cast has in his favour that no other player can compare with in this draft class (hell, maybe the entire league at this point), is his agent’s consistent success with players. Out of all the agents who are currently active in the VHL, no agent has a longer active streak of Hall of Fame players (4, although one would expect STZ to match that this off-season) under their tutelage than Victor. The man does not make a habit of falling short of expectations.

 

Matt Thompson – The One Who Oversees The League

 

While being an administrator/commissioner of a league is not a sure-fire sign that they’re going to be a huge success in the league, it does show a level of consistent commitment that any general manager would love to have in a player. This consistent commitment has been evident to this point in the way that Thompson has gone about earning his TPE. In comparison to Samuel Gate, who has earned 106 TPE (as of week ending June 3^rd) through weekly capped TPE, Thompson has earned 121. While this is a demonstration of Thompson’s consistency, the fact that he has such an edge in capped TPE but is still trailing behind Gate in total TPE suggests either that Thompson isn’t engaging in as much of the uncapped activities as Gate (something that you can somewhat understand from someone who is busy enough running the league) or that he just simply isn’t having as much luck with his predictions as Gate. He’s a lot of people’s selection for first overall in this draft and he definitely is more than capable of making a great player, we’ll have to see if the Bears agree with the public opinion.

 

Roger Sterling – The One That Will Thrive

 

While it is not immediately obvious through his current TPE levels in comparison to his rivals in this thread, Roger Sterling is the most logical choice for first overall selection. As of the week ending June 3^rd, Sterling was 27 TPE behind Gate, 22 TPE behind Thompson and level with Cast, but what is important to remember is that Sterling created his player three weeks later than both Thompson and Gate. What this means is that Sterling missed out on a potential 36 TPE of weekly point tasks along with miscellaneous TPE awarded at the end of the season (VHFL, Award Predictions, etc.). For Sterling to be as close as he is to both of these players in spite of his later creation demonstrates that he has the greatest earning potential out of any player in this draft. But that’s not the only advantage that works in Sterling’s favour heading into this draft, being a goalie will also serve him well in this draft. At the end of his rookie season, there will only be four goalies more senior than him (Arkander, Stopko, Brodeur, Isault). By the time he enters his third and fourth season, he will likely have overtaken Isault in TPE and will be performing at a comparable level to Arkander and Stopko thanks to their regression. By the time he reaches his fifth and sixth seasons, Arkander and Stopko will have retired and Sterling will be unquestionably the best goalie in the league in terms of attributes (this is no knock on Isault or Arvid Aamo by the way, they’re both solid earners but outside of Stopko, no-one has more earning potential in the league right now than Sterling), a dominance that could well carry over to his final two seasons as well depending on other goalies created for Season 63 onwards. No player in this draft will become the unquestioned best player at his position quicker than Roger Sterling,

 

1000+ words, using for W/C 6/11 and 6/18

[Will 4,660]

Great roundup! Looking forward to seeing what happens, I should add for GMs that rigging services are included with Roger Sterling! 

[pennypenny 227]

might i add, that I MR. Robert Malenko started after Will too. and for me to be this high in TPE with the least amount of time

[Tagger 2,722]

31 minutes ago, pennypenny said:

might i add, that I MR. Robert Malenko started after Will too. and for me to be this high in TPE with the least amount of time

You're doing very well at the minute, and I seem to remember giving you props in my VHL Radio Mock Draft. I think it might be a bit out of reach to be in the discussion for first overall, but I'd be very surprised if you slid below Riga's 5th/6th overall, which is certainly a good achievement for a first-gen in a very strong class. 

[Beaviss 4,955]

Just now, Tagger said:

You're doing very well at the minute, and I seem to remember giving you props in my VHL Radio Mock Draft. I think it might be a bit out of reach to be in the discussion for first overall, but I'd be very surprised if you slid below Riga's 5th/6th overall, which is certainly a good achievement for a first-gen in a very strong class. 

 

Reminds me of Louth’s draft class

[Victor 10,829]

Quite a dilemma, wouldn't want to be a GM this draft. Although of course might be the easiest draft ever if everyone pans out.

[Beaviss 4,955]

6 minutes ago, Victor said:

Quite a dilemma, wouldn't want to be a GM this draft. Although of course might be the easiest draft ever if everyone pans out.

 

Thats why I’m happy with #2 lol

[Victor 10,829]

1 minute ago, Beaviss said:

 

Thats why I’m happy with #2 lol

still got a decision to make!

[Beaviss 4,955]

10 minutes ago, Victor said:

still got a decision to make!

 

I got two players specifically I want both an organizational need so I’m happy whoever falls 

[diamond_ace 3,107]

6 hours ago, Tagger said:

 

 

Roger Sterling – The One That Will Thrive

 

At the end of his rookie season, there will only be four goalies more senior than him (Arkander, Stopko, Brodeur, Isault).

 

1000+ words, using for W/C 6/11 and 6/18

5, Asipi. He's definitely more senior than Sterling, still active, and should make the VHL level for at least a portion of his career. His earning pace is well behind the others (and so he won't be in the discussion for best in the league at any point) but he is technically more senior. I could see Asipi making a career out of rotating around among all the kind of mid tier teams (ones who aren't competitive enough to need a heavy earner like the four above, but not actively tanking).

[Tagger 2,722]

4 minutes ago, diamond_ace said:

5, Asipi. He's definitely more senior than Sterling, still active, and should make the VHL level for at least a portion of his career. His earning pace is well behind the others (and so he won't be in the discussion for best in the league at any point) but he is technically more senior. I could see Asipi making a career out of rotating around among all the kind of mid tier teams (ones who aren't competitive enough to need a heavy earner like the four above, but not actively tanking).

I was aware of Asipi with the research I was doing earlier, but he hasn't posted since May 14th, which is close to the VHL definition of inactive. 

 

He has been on and hopefully he does wind up contributing to the league, but at his current activity, it didn't feel necessary to mention him.

Edited June 9, 2018 by Tagger

[diamond_ace 3,107]

2 minutes ago, Tagger said:

I was aware of Asipi with the research I was doing earlier, but he hasn't posted since May 14th, which is close to the VHL definition of inactive. 

 

He has been on and hopefully he does wind up contributing to the league, but at his current activity, it didn't feel necessary to mention him.

Didn't realize it had been that long since he posted. He's on Ottawa so I'm more aware of him in general than the average league member but I guess I'm inclined to assume my own guys are around more than they are

[CowboyinAmerica 2,840]

I think it's interesting that not many people had Sterling going 1 or 2 in their mocks for that exact positional need reason. Especially given Quebec's young talent elsewhere and Seattle needing everything, I'd actually be a bit surprised if he falls to 4 where most have him.

[Tagger 2,722]

2 minutes ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

I think it's interesting that not many people had Sterling going 1 or 2 in their mocks for that exact positional need reason. Especially given Quebec's young talent elsewhere and Seattle needing everything, I'd actually be a bit surprised if he falls to 4 where most have him.

I could be wrong, but I think the reasoning for most people for Sterling not being 1 is more to do with what Bana has said on the forums rather than his current standing in the league. Most of what Bana had said in the lead-up to the PT had been about picking between Cast, Thompson and Gate. I had him at 3 just because Quebec already have a good goalie prospect in Isault and, while they could do some trade stuff with either Isault or Sterling further down the line (a la S42-43 Stockholm), they'd probably just prefer to get a sure thing in one of the other three prospects. 

 

If I were GM of Bears, I would take Sterling first overall.

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

It'll be interesting. I wish I could get a gauge on who Bana is picking 1st so I can get at least 1 right on my Mock.

 

 

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Review:

We know now that Thompson went #1, but both you and Cast have been tearing up the league as rookies.

Quite an awesome start to a career, if I say so myself.