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VHL S68 Advanced Metrics


DMaximus
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VHL S68 Advanced Metrics

 

One of the frustrating things with STHS is that it doesn’t really provide much information to create advanced statistics that are all the rage in sports today. I took matters into my own hand and created a script that counts all of the events in the full play by play reports of games. That information allows me to then tabulate some advanced metrics. I’ve been running the script for the team I’m on for the last couple of seasons. Now, I’ve finally been able to expand it to run on all games.

I’m going to focus on 3 advanced metrics in this article, Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO.

Corsi counts the number of shot attempts for compared to the number of shot attempts against (including shots that miss the net and shots that are blocked). Note that this is shot attempts, not just shots on goal. This stat is useful as it has been proven to be a better predictor for success than goal differential or shots on goal. Teams with positive Corsi numbers generally have more possession of the puck, which can ultimately lead to more wins.

Fenwick is the same thing as Corsi, but it does not count shots blocked. The thought process being that shot blocking can be a skill that teams should receive credit for. If your team blocks a lot of shots it will lower your Fenwick Against number and increase your total Fenwick %.

For both Corsi and Fenwick if a team is over 55% they are considered elite.

To get the PDO value, you add your team’s shooting percentage and your team’s save percentage together. In general, this is considered a measure of luck. The norm is to be at 100, if your PDO is over 100, you are considered to be “lucky” (Specifically 102 or higher is seen as being lucky more than good), if it’s under (98 or lower), you’re “unlucky”. I use quotes here because this number can be influenced by good goalkeeping, which means a higher save percentage and a higher PDO.

If you wish to read more about these metrics, there’s a ton of information out there, including https://www.si.com/nhl/2014/09/28/fancy-stats-primer-advanced-analytics-corsi-fenwick-pdo-qualcomp

 

So without further ado, here’s the stats so far for the VHL S68. When I ran this, all teams have played 15 games, roughly 1/5 of the season.

 

Corsi

CorsiFor is the shot attempts taken by your team

CorsiAgainst is the shot attempts allowed by your team

Corsi is CorsiFor minus CorsiAgainst. A positive number means you’ve taken more shot attempts than allowed. Negative means you’ve allowed more than taken.

CorsiForPct takes your team’s CorsiFor number and uses it to make a percentage of the total shot attempts in the game. A CorsiFor% of over 55% is elite.

Team Name

Average of CorsiFor

Average of CorsiAgainst

Average of Corsi

Average of CorsiForPct

Calgary Wranglers

72.313

52.750

19.563

57.559

D.C. Dragons

41.600

94.400

-52.800

30.089

HC Davos Dynamo

66.563

58.188

8.375

53.273

Helsinki Titans

71.500

55.571

15.929

55.806

Malmo Nighthawks

52.533

59.600

-7.067

47.002

Moscow Menace

72.800

68.867

3.933

51.075

New York Americans

66.200

68.067

-1.867

49.353

Prague Phantoms

59.333

85.667

-26.333

41.141

Riga Reign

65.071

57.857

7.214

52.973

Seattle Bears

68.625

64.938

3.688

51.074

Toronto Legion

70.000

63.400

6.600

52.415

Vancouver Wolves

76.929

53.143

23.786

58.604

League Average

65.256

65.256

0.000

50.000

 

Fenwick

The exact same as Corsi, just that shots that are blocked are not counted as an attempt.

Team Name

Average of FenwickFor

Average of FenwickAgainst

Average of Fenwick

Average of FenwickForPct

Calgary Wranglers

59.938

45.000

14.938

56.825

D.C. Dragons

35.800

81.733

-45.933

30.015

HC Davos Dynamo

56.438

49.813

6.625

52.956

Helsinki Titans

62.429

47.500

14.929

56.318

Malmo Nighthawks

45.733

51.133

-5.400

47.351

Moscow Menace

62.200

59.000

3.200

51.123

New York Americans

56.267

57.200

-0.933

49.657

Prague Phantoms

50.600

72.933

-22.333

41.141

Riga Reign

55.071

50.214

4.857

52.328

Seattle Bears

58.813

54.688

4.125

51.264

Toronto Legion

58.533

53.933

4.600

51.843

Vancouver Wolves

66.643

44.214

22.429

59.664

League Average

55.656

55.656

0.000

50.000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PDO

Row Labels

Average of PDO

Calgary Wranglers

100.329

D.C. Dragons

99.372

HC Davos Dynamo

102.777

Helsinki Titans

98.711

Malmo Nighthawks

101.191

Moscow Menace

101.064

New York Americans

97.583

Prague Phantoms

97.156

Riga Reign

100.294

Seattle Bears

101.042

Toronto Legion

100.463

Vancouver Wolves

99.651

Grand Total

100.000

 

 

Since we’re only 15 games in, all of this is with a very small sample set and could be heavily skewed by strength of schedule. Because of that, I’m not going to analyze this data.

 

Some other things I’d like to call out. Many times Corsi, Fenwick, PDO are only counted during 5 v. 5 play because power play and penalty kills can skew the numbers. I am not doing that. I am counting every shot attempt regardless of the on-ice situation. Hopefully future enhancements to my script will be able to just count 5 on 5 play. For now this is what I have.

Enjoy!

Edited by DMaximus
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Nice write up. I've actually also been working on a script to scrape Corsi stats together. I'd be really interested to see how you are doing it. In my current iteration I only take into account even strength attempts but I have to manually input the penalty times. My ultimate goal is to create a sim visualizer with the full game play by play. Can't wait to see what the stats look like towards the end of the season. Send me a DM if you want to collaborate.  

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