Nykonax

Moscow would have 4 more cups if I didn't exist haha sorry @Spartan

yeah a charity gift receipt

hello resident math major here theres a rule in probability that the probability of all possible events has to add up to 1. So for example a 4-sided die: P(roll a 1) + P(roll 2) + P( roll3) + P(roll 4) = 1 This can be rearranged so that P(4) = 1 - P(1) - P(2) - P(3) In real words, the probability of rolling a 4 is also the probability of not rolling a 1 or 2 or 3. This is called the complement rule. So generally P(event) = 1 - P(event doesn't happen) So in the case of continental cups, if we want to calculate the probability of winning at least 1 cup we can: Calculate the probability of winning 1 cup + probability of winning 2 cups + probability of winning 3 cups + ... + probability of winning 8 cups Or we can use the above rule and calculate P(At least 1 cup) = 1 - P(no cups) The probability of winning no cups is much easier to calculate than the chance of winning exactly 2/3/4/n cups in a career. So it's about 40% give or take some assumptions

60 di (unironically)

too bad we got messier instead

ignoring that Eno Velvson is now giga op since he's playing on a team with Eno and Velv. league is over just go S99 already.

apply

Eno Velvson - SH

i just read through the entire stats series you've put out. love whenever someone dives deeper into the stats, I think it's so much more interesting compared to other articles, shame you don't really get extra credit for writing code or anything like that. anyways, my point is I feel like PIM's should also be a consideration. From what I've seen higher hits correlates to more PIM's. When voting on things like defensive defenseman or two-way forward awards I've been looking at a simple PIMs/Hits ratio. From what I can tell, your script doesn't really take this into account? I think it's an important consideration as penalties are really bad defensive play and need to be considered. Not sure how you'd do implement this though. This isn't to take away from your article at all, I think the stats are really interesting and things I haven't even thought about as stats, and I'd love to have this available every season as part of awards consideration tbh because I think it adds a lot more depth and realism.

no one tell him

interesting

We're saying the same thing. Malmo can't contend for a cup or effectively tank this season so it doesn't matter what they do until S100. I like the moves

I'm not sure I understand. The way I see it is Malmo has 2 directions to go in, they either compete this season or they start a rebuild. If they compete this season, they lack assets and timeframe to upgrade the roster with. S100 1st is unlocked but if you move that to upgrade roster you have 1 season of competition and then no picks for the next 2 years when you need to rebuild, then you're just in hell for like 10 seasons. If they try to rebuild this season you also don't have the picks to fully commit to a rebuild since you don't have an S99 1st and when you're picking S100 the timeline gets pretty off since you have S98 1OA peaking as you're starting to draft the pieces around them. It's why I think Malmo is in a super flexible position come S100, because they'll have their S100-103 picks unlocking, as well as a peaking (probably Beketov) player coming into a contract re-signing, as well as the clickers (who you pointed out are doing even more earning now) starting to hit 600-700 valuable depth range. From there you can either try to acquire more pieces to compete, or you can start a real rebuild and trade the 1OA selection + valuable depth and start stacking for like a S101/S102 draft class.

Even the other trades have been acquiring younger clickers who are going to scale. In 2 seasons Malmo is going to have some solid assets to work with + unlocking picks. They'll be in a super flexible spot. No one questioning Prague here is a little suspicious too I think cause does this deal really make sense for them? I haven't really looked into what they've done so far. Is leitner and whatever other moves they make really the difference maker

I think this is a bad take. They got first in conference (albeit maybe inflated cause of EU) and just got sths'd in playoffs. I think they could've tried to run it back but then they're so doomed for the next 5 seasons. This move at least gives them potential to have something going for them in 3 seasons. I'll probably write an article (rare) analyzing overall malmo off-season and then come to a conclusion. But thinking abt it more i don't hate this move long term

idk I think in vhl there's no reason to ever just be competing for a playoff spot. irl sports there's benefits for fans/merch/ticket sales stuff like that but that's just not a thing in vhl. otherwise if you're just playing for a playoff spot you're never really good enough to win but you're also not getting top picks to work with so you're kind of stuck in a middling spot that's only decaying as players age. i don't necessarily hate this move in context of malmo. I think that obviously something has to be done and getting 1st overall is an amazing start not even for a rebuild but just having a valuable asset that can be either be committed to for competing or in 2 seasons flipped as a valuable sign and trade. depends on the rest of the off-season tbh. it does give malmo a longer time horizon instead of just being screwed in a season or two. Just depends how the rest of the team is managed in the future because it is a key move

malmos competing for 1st (overall)

Winnipeg Wheelbarrows Roster Forwards: Logan Ninefingers @Scurvy Adi Dassler @BOOM George Richmond @badcolethetitan Diego Machado @Dadam30 AJ Williams @AJW Mikko Borisyuk @PacifistKit17 Defense: Lucy Leitner @LucyXpher YaBoi Oven @Doomsday Marcel Janser @Morcar80 Narnia Shaw @Dabnad Adam Joy @MrMom Goalies: Ondrej Vencko @Mutti Chad Powers @dylanjj37

idk man these 4th round picks are what's making the deal happen. gotta sweeten it

Ok I'm wrong, but still think it's extremely dumb. I mean yeah but I don't think that's really worth considering. I can already start my back up like 6 times vs. Chicago and boost them somewhere if I wanted to. It's already an issue with the automatic +2 points to the tanking teams (they could've already won that backup game) but I think in this case it's so small and not worth considering. Teams already get unlucky/lucky with the games they play vs. backups in so I don't think it really changes anything.

But the rule is you have to doing your best to compete, not you have to play your backup exactly 8 times. I don't even see how they broke the rule.

But that's a different rule. It's just the Louth Rule that you have to start your backup 8 times. That's black and white and just has to be done in fairness to all the other teams. If you make playoffs while starting you're backup more than you need to, you're literally only handicapping yourself. The rule violated here is spirit of competition, which makes sense to punish tanking teams for if they're playing a backup to tank harder. If you're a playoff team and play a backup extra games you're still competing, you're just dumb and fucked up lol. I'd like to see the rule at least changed going forward so that Spirit of Competition can't be violated unless you miss playoffs or you're obviously tanking for a lower seed in playoffs (wildcard buff anyone?) which makes sense to me. But Riga or Lemorse isn't even punished here. The way I see it is Riga didn't do anything deserving of punishment, and then now another team is being punished. It just doesn't make sense to me.

But you're the commissioner and can decide the punishment. Obviously there is subjectivity to it but nothing is stopping you from being subjective about it? Like I think this is totally a case where you can just go "they broke the rule, but there's literally 0 intention or harm in breaking it" and just fine a week of GM pay out of principle. Then there's some aspect of favouritism accusations or whatever, but anyone should be able to see that it's so clearly a different case than other instances of the rule.