Gustav

D - Poopy Peepants @Girts

I like articles too! And my favorite kind of article is a mock draft, where I write a lot and get some positive reactions and also probably piss off a few people. This season, I did my first mock since becoming a GM, and I later decided to find out how well I did, specifically in comparison to my other mock drafts. Those being... The original Gustav's Mock Draft, written by me as a rookie and still the article I'm most proud of. It managed to correctly predict over 40% of all picks in the first four rounds! A giant collaborative project for S68. Not my idea and actually that of @McWolf , and an experience I'd gladly have again. Another group mock in S69 where I took over the organization after the rest of the S68 group decided that was a one-and-done. Different crew, same thing, still a lot of fun. A S70 mock for VSN. Fun fact: I was briefly part of VSN, but this was the only VSN article I ever put out (and this one was a group project as well). I don't know why I never really did anything for VSN, but I guess I just prefer to freelance to the extent that I want complete ownership of everything I put out (and many of my articles have a community focus anyway rather than a sim results one). Anyway, that's all I wrote before making it up and getting an inside look at who was drafting who. But how does my S82 mock hold up to the others? The picks I predicted correctly in S82 were: Bubbles Utonium at 2nd overall Perry Laperriere at 11th overall Maxwell Mathias at 15th overall Calix Pearce at 21st overall Phoebe Bridgers at 25th overall... ...although the portal gave me a bad list of which teams were drafting where and some teams are off. I've chosen to consider a "correct" pick one that went at the same overall spot as was projected, even though that makes picks like Mikhail Kovalchuk to Seattle technically incorrect even though I certainly would have projected him there regardless (it also takes away Eldon Escobar to Moscow, though the GM player factor isn't there for that pick. However, I still have 5 picks correct if we consider those players correct and yeet the same-overall-different-team picks in Mathias and Bridgers, so same difference). This was the worst out of every mock I've written in both number and percentage: S66: 17 correct (34.0% of all picks) S68: 11 correct (28.9% of all picks) S70: 10 correct (41.7% of all picks) S69: 6 correct (16.7% of all picks) S82: 5 correct (15.6% of all picks) Per this list, S70 was arguably the best in terms of percentage (helped massively that I projected the first 7 picks accurately) but I don't remember how much insight I had about that draft as I was asked last-minute to pick for Malmo (and was about to be hired in Davos). It was also not a very deep class, so there were fewer options at each pick. S66 was at the time historically deep, and I was still new, so I'd argue that it's still the best one here. To avoid judging a mock by just looking at correct picks, let's look at each by evaluating the picks predicted within one pick of their actual selection: S66: 22 picks within one (44.0% of all picks) S68: 16 picks within one (42.1% of all picks) S70: 14 picks within one (58.3% of all picks) S69: 13 picks within one (36.9% of all picks) S82: 10 picks within one (31.3% of all picks) But what about consistency? If every incorrect pick in S70 was wildly off, correct guesses don't tell the entire story. I went a bit further and ranked every draft by the average distance each guess was from the correct one, as well as the standard deviation of that average. Though this isn't exactly true, a good way to interpret this is that if the average is greater than the standard deviation, the mock was more precise than accurate--guesses were relatively consistent, but might not necessarily have hit the target. Conversely, if the standard deviation is greater than the average, guesses were more accurate than precise--the correct pick could be expected to be close to any given guess, but the picks were spread out enough that seeing some outliers is nothing out of the ordinary. Ideally, both numbers should be as low as possible. S70: Mean distance of 1.63 picks from actual selection (standard deviation of 1.93) S69: Mean distance of 2.69 picks from actual selection (standard deviation of 2.27) S66: Mean distance of 3.48 picks from actual selection (standard deviation of 4.91) S82: Mean distance of 3.81 picks from actual selection (standard deviation of 3.13) S68: Mean distance of 4.32 picks from actual selection (standard deviation of 4.77) This one is interesting because S68, which looks great on the first two lists, doesn't hold up at all here, while S69, which doesn't, ends up being fairly accurate in general despite not directly hitting on many picks. It also demonstrates the power of outliers--one pick projected in S66 was 25 picks away from what actually happened (lower-level goalers are a lot of guesswork to project), and a couple others were similarly way higher or lower than I thought. With those taken out, S66 is probably fighting for second here. It's fairly conclusive that S82 was my worst mock ever. Why? There are a few things which may have come into play. One, I used the wrong draft order and went by what the portal told me, so some team needs were likely neglected in their correct places. If I'd even been able to call Campbell to Seattle correct, I would have had 6 correct with a greater percentage than in S69. Two, there was a lot of guessing with the GM players. I'd heard ahead of the draft that every GM in the draft was attempting to tank their own stock, an assumption that was very likely incorrect in at least one case when Vasile Lamb went first overall. So, a false rumor messed with the status of one pick, while it was practically impossible to make an educated guess about the placement of DeGroot. And finally, I guess I'm just a bit rusty. I love writing mock drafts and knew exactly what I was doing by S70, but a few things probably wore off. Until next season!

G - Papa Emeritus @Hogan

I still remember one particular instance in the VHLM where a player I thought was staying down was called up without warning. And I wasn't very happy about that. I also happen to remember messaging a VHL GM to ask what their plans were with a different player who was close and unsure about what was going to happen. Should VHL GMs at least let the minor-league GM know what's up? Absolutely. There have probably been one or two times when I didn't do this, because I don't specifically remember doing so and I do specifically remember calling people up to the VHL (I always communicated with the players themselves, but probably not the GMs as much as I should have). So, I don't write this completely innocent of everything mentioned. That said--what's stopping VHLM and VHLE GMs who are out of the loop from asking? The status of the lower-level team is far more important to that team's GM than to someone in a higher league who sees a prospect as theirs to use as they wish.

Time to write a daily recap complaining about meta

D - Tom Eagles @Girts

F - Robert Bouchard @Hogan

We are absolutely MOVING through this; I've got to hand it to you guys. F - Jerome Reinhart @Girts

This is now the Bash Dil Thread. I am here to bash Dil and I am also here to apply.

F - Henry Tucker @Hogan

I refuse to accept this as official if it doesn't come with 20 spoiler tags stacked inside each other.

Reposting for roster changes: 1. @Baby Boomer F - Taylor Mourning F - Tyler Reinhart F - Otto Numminen D - Battre Sandstrom D - Corey Kitson G - Em Em Flex 2. @scoop F - Duncan Idaho F - Pistil Stamen F - Justin Lose D - Tui Sova D - Hari Singh Nalwa G - Rara Rasputin 3. @CowboyinAmerica F - Reylynn Reinhart F - Taro Tsujimoto F - Vinny Detroit D - Hard Markinson D - Joe Madison G - Thadius Sales 4. @Girts F - That Dude F - Druss Deathwalker F - Henri le Massif D - Aurelian Moreau D - Jan Hlozek G - Sirkants Klamasteris 5. @GustavMattias (GM) F - Henry Tucker F - Jerome Reinhart F - Robert Bouchard D - Tom Eagles D - Poopy Peepants G - Papa Emeritus 6. @Hogan F - Alex Johnston F - Phil The Rock Johnson F - The Seabasstard D - Zeedayno Chara D - Robin Galante Nilsson G - Artem Tretiak

Probably wrong because I taught myself by just trying until I made it work. It’s not super different from holding a pencil. Imagine that you’re trying to write with two of them at once.

AAAAAHHHH I ALMOST FORGOT I’m in and can manage.

Week 2

I could go ON about just how backwards the store and the company both are. The amount of unethical, unempathetic, and sometimes straight-up illegal stuff I've seen there is unreal. I still have the job because (on most days) I've gained enough respect to be mostly left alone and able to do my own thing, and they do respect my availability during school...but when I'm out I'm thinking about writing up a giant list of things I've seen and sending it straight to any third party who would care.

That brings me to a story about the time I came into work and immediately was taken aside by a different department manager and yelled at about how a different store manager would have fired me that day if we weren't understaffed. The reason? I had knocked over a pallet of Coke product the night before and didn't pick it up. I did not knock over said pallet and had no idea what he was talking about. Apparently, the vendor went right to the store manager and blamed whichever one of us (me) had closed the night before despite the fact that multiple departments, including all the night shift workers, use the back room. Nobody ever believed me and management used it as an excuse to "crack down" on my department.

You should be used to it at this point

Please drop your stories in here. I don't remember the last time I got absolutely zero respect in a day at work and I have a borderline surreal one for you. This is going to sound fake, and the worst part is--it's not. Most grocery stores, at least in my area, have their own departments. In general, I take care of food that isn't refrigerated. This often gets mixed up by customers (and people who work up front and don't know any better) with what we call "vendor items", or product filled by a company independently. For example, Coca-Cola uses their own employees to keep up with the Coke products. Pepsi does the same thing. Frito-Lay does the same thing. As does Nabisco. Beer is actually filled by distributors, or third-party companies that sign contracts with a handful of brands and stock their own half (or so) of the beer we carry. 99% of the time, I have nothing to do with this stuff, because there are other people, who don't work for the store, who show up and fill it. The 1% of the time when I do generally comes around on days when everyone and their grandmother is buying beer and snacks. I've had to fill this stuff on Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, and the like. And I've never had any problem doing so--it's busy, the vendors can't be everywhere at once, and I get that we should have some product on the shelf. Today happens to be one of those days, with my favorite football team (and everyone's favorite in the area) playing in the evening. I hear through my department manager that one of the (somewhat more unhinged) store managers wants my coworker and me to fill the vendor stuff. Most vendors were just in the store an hour or two ago, and the store isn't even super busy yet, but whatever. I get that it's a busy day and we should have as much out there as possible. No problem. I'm slightly annoyed when practically none of the beer goes on the shelf, as does practically none of the chips and practically none of the pop (yes, I say pop). But I did what I was asked to do and I go back to what I was doing in the first place. Not even 20 minutes later, I walk into the back room to find Department Manager working on the same chips I just did. He's fully aware that I just did them. But Store Manager says they're getting "hit hard" (they're not) and that the shelf is empty (yes and no--there are empty spaces on the shelf, but that's what's straight-up out of stock. Everything in stock is full). He's just doing it to keep Store Manager happy. So at this point it's weird, but it escalates. Store Manager comes in the back right after this and yells at both of us for not filling a certain kind of chips. Which we don't have in the back. We learn that those do exist on a display, which was put up this morning by the vendor, in a part of the store where none of us ever have a reason to be. And we're berated for not knowing that. One coworker volunteers to do it, and I've had enough so I take my lunch. I come back from lunch to find two other coworkers doing the chips AGAIN. I talk to one of them. Absolutely nothing is going up to the shelf, because everything has been done multiple times, and Store Manager is acting like the world is coming to an end if they don't get it done immediately. I'm then told that I need to fill the pop. Again. It's been filled twice already. I also hear double-indirectly (from my coworker, who allegedly heard it from Department Manager, so I don't know how things have or have not been twisted around there) that Store Manager doesn't want us to work together and made some insinuation that it's (somehow) going to make people think we're gay. So, uh...extra not cool at this point? But also at this point, I rationalize that a) it's Store Manager's fault if nothing ends up being done in our own department, and b) if someone tries to get me in trouble for not doing anything in my own department, I'm just going to walk out the door and find a better job somewhere else. So I do the pop. And nothing goes up to the shelf. Because I did it already. Surprise. And then I'm told that the beer is empty. And I need to fill it. Again, indirectly through Department Manager, who's just as fed up with the absolute bullshit we've been subjected to today as I am. I look at the beer and it is not empty. I take a cart of beer out in case I'm being watched, and once again confirm that it is not empty by being able to fit practically none of it on the shelf. It's absolutely confirmed at this point that Store Manager is not even looking at the shelf--just going on a power trip. I take a too-long break and leave, because I've had it. I've had good days, I've had bad days, and there are times when it's clear the company does not care about me--but this is the first time in a long time that I have been directly treated like absolute garbage by someone other than a customer and it's also the first time in a long time that one shift makes me seriously consider never coming back. TL;DR: Store Manager is probably having a bad day and decides to ruin everyone else's day as a consequence.

Cap dumps are a wonderful thing. I think I was always too nice to ask for much payment as a part of them (I was too nice in trades in general) but it’s cool to get what’s there. I also remember briefly being #2 in the draft class’ TPE to McJake so he can get dabbed on

I swear if you touch my multi-claims

Review: Very Russian indeed! I usually don't like it when someone puts a player's whole body in the frame of the graphic, but this worked out well enough for you that I can't criticize it. A couple things to suggest: -Try putting some stock images partially in front of your player to make him blend in with the background a bit better. Right now he's completely separate from the background, and a graphic should have a bit more of a sense of, I don't know, togetherness to it (I hope that makes sense). -I like the effect you applied to the player, but it also looks like you applied that effect to the entire player render at once. If you know how to use a layer mask, duplicate the player render, put the effect on the top layer, and mask out what you want to be more clear (right now it looks like a bit too much is blurred out). Score: 7/10

Review: I like the background you used, and I always appreciate it when people make graphics that try to be something--in this case, a trading card. I'd probably have some criticisms for the text and its placement/font if it weren't for that, but I think with what you're going for it works fine. I also like the jersey swap. My main criticism is about the player render--it's just very low-resolution. This would probably be helped somewhat if you made the final image smaller, but a better solution is just to find a better picture in the first place. Find out how to use Advanced Search on Google Images--it will let you filter pictures by size, and you can pick a larger one so it's more clear. Score: 7/10

At least three times this week, I've opened up the VHL.com article subforum meaning to write an article, and every time I've found myself staring blankly at my computer screen and doing absolutely nothing, because I went there meaning to earn some TPE rather than to talk about something I find interesting about the league or something that matters to me. And in that I found the thing that matters to me for this week, and that's what I'm going to talk about. I've always expected a certain level of quality from my own work. I like to think that I go far more in-depth and try to make things way more worth reading than I need to. It's perhaps my largest contribution to the league, and it's something I'm proud of, as I know there are some who legitimately enjoy reading what I write and it makes me happy to know that. One of my favorite running examples of writing just to earn is doing a VHL.com article every week that just takes one's own player page and recites the numbers on it up to 150 (or even 500) words every week and claiming it--I don't consider that interesting new content, and I would encourage anyone who just pumps out the minimum amount of words in that setting to experience the satisfaction of putting together a major project and getting some positive feedback from it--but at least those articles are something, and they serve a purpose. Of course, that's much better than having zero thoughts cross my mind as I zone out with the goal of randomly stumbling upon a great idea for this week. But you know what? I think that's OK for this week. I think it's OK to not have ideas, and I don't like the idea of trying to force myself to come up with material--ideas should come naturally, and I should care about what I'm putting in this little text box. Scientifically, burnout happens when something someone wants to do slowly turns into something that person feels they have to do. In general, I don't have that problem because I care about the community and I think I have some ideas worth sharing (as the kids are saying these days). I'm not going to resort to "here's my player page", but I'm also not going to act like I have anything of value to add in this space this week. At least I warned you that this article was about nothing. I learned about a religion called Druzism the other day--it's an Abrahamic faith (in the same realm as Islam/Christianity/Judaism) that's very different from any others you've heard of. One of the defining features of Druzism is that performing religious rituals is seen as (almost) entirely voluntary, and that a Druze who does not participate in these rituals is viewed as no less than one who does. I have zero connection to the Druze faith, but I think that part is a good analogy to our community--if you're doing everything you can to be active and noticed and respected, great, but if you're just getting by and enjoying the league on your own terms, that's cool too. There's a lot of pressure on some members to fit into certain boxes and conform to certain expectations that shouldn't really be there at all. I guess the main point here, so I can point to something that is the point if someone tries to tell me this shouldn't be approved, is that we should be conscious of how we feel about what we're doing. Are you forcing yourself to VHL because you feel you have to? It might be time to evaluate that (or to find the parts of it that you don't like and change them). Let's be a community that wants to be a community! And that's not to say you should sit back and think it's everyone else's thing to do--start with you and make sure you are where you want to be.