Jump to content

CowboyinAmerica

Members
  • Posts

    6,916
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

Everything posted by CowboyinAmerica

  1. 2000+ words, claiming for the weeks ending: 1/21 1/28 2/4 2/11
  2. Do 9 season VHL careers actually work? An analysis of S80-83 draftees With the introduction of the VHLE before Season 80 came a different, possibly even more radical change for history and stat buffs like myself: nine season careers. Now, rather than going straight to the VHL after the draft and playing for eight seasons, the idea was that most players would go to the VHLE for one season then the VHL for their remaining eight, thus necessitating nine season careers post-draft. But there was an interesting wrinkle within the announcement: Some players didn’t ever need to go to the VHLE at all. For those at 350 TPE and above, they had the option of going straight to the VHL and playing a longer career than any player in VHL history had ever had before. In doing so, however, they would be subject to a stricter regression scale that means four seasons of decline, with their peak occurring one season earlier than their counterparts who went to the VHLE for a season. There were some thoughts that this may force the VHL to re-write some record books, or that nine season players would be easier shoo-ins to the Hall of Fame. And there’s some logic behind that argument: It’s only top earning players that would even have the option to skip the VHLE in the first place, so it stands to reason that they would also be the players dominating stats and awards. Luckily though, we now have a pretty good data set of those nine-season players to analyze and try and answer the question: Is it worth it? Anecdotal data seems to be swinging towards no - just look at the lengths Logan Ninefingers and George Richmond took to stay in the VHLE this season. My very own decision on this could be coming in a few weeks, which is why I decided to take a look at the data. By my count (unless I missed somebody, which is completely possible), there have been 12 players from the S80-83 draft classes who went straight to the VHL and have finished their careers. And the general thought is, maybe you’re not getting the full experience that you were promised. What I’m seeing is a lot of Very Good players, but maybe not the ability (or in some cases the drive) to become truly great. (S80) C Matty Ice - Total TPE: 1285 @mattyIceman Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 648 302 420 722 83 3854 548 1259 346 39 51 7 Personal Awards: 1 (S80 RotY) There were only two players to jump directly to the VHL in the first season the option was offered, and unfortunately the first one to be drafted isn’t the best test case. Although Fire would win Rookie of the Year in a truncated class (since much of his competition went to the VHLE), the user behind Fire would receive a temporary ban a bit into his career. As a result, Fire would hit 49 goals in two of his first three seasons, but never top 40 again for the rest of his career en route to a solid, but unspectacular nine season career. (S80) LW Vinny Detroit - Total TPE: 1519 @dasboot Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 646 239 280 519 113 2850 1753 3163 362 39 42 2 Personal Awards: 0 The other S80 player to jump directly to the VHL that first season may not be the best test case either, seeing as how Detroit had one very specific goal: as many hits as possible. In that regard he absolutely accomplished his goal - Detroit’s 3136 hits is far and away the VHL record, more than 200 more than the eight seasons of Druss Deathwalker. From that angle, Detroit can be seen as a nine-season career success, with the extra season (Detroit had 339 hits in S80) allowing him a record he wouldn’t have otherwise been able to hit. (S81) LW Nico Pearce - Total TPE: 2206 @Spartan Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 650 362 412 774 177 4216 769 1785 335 52 82 2 Personal Awards: 2 (S84 MVP, S84 Most Goals) Now we’re getting to some interesting ones. Pearce is the current all-time TPE record holder and exactly the type of player that VHL leadership was thinking of when instituting the nine season idea. He sailed past the VHLE cut-off, was a 59 point contributor to a powerful Moscow team in his very first season, and was even able to hold on to the tougher regression scale to hit 44 goals and 88 points in his final season. But if you think of a career as a bell curve, Pearce’s peak was never quite there. Outside of the S84 season with 59 goals and 120 points, Pearce never topped 100 points and only topped 45 goals one other season (S85). The overall counting stats look good - Pearce’s 362 goals ranked 29th all-time - but the end result is a career in the Hall of Very Good. (S81) D Harkat Mulds - Total TPE: 513 @hylands Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 504 137 238 375 18 1606 243 553 679 16 42 5 Personal Awards: 0 The other S81 draftee to go right to the VHL is also our first one to not actually finish out the nine season career. Mulds would stall out their TPE earning fairly soon after reaching the league, hopping around to four different teams (including Moscow and Prague twice) before retiring after their seventh season. The one thing that is interesting from Mulds is that their highest point total (73) actually occurred in that very first season that other contemporaries spent in the VHLE, on a Toronto team that made the playoffs no less. (S82) LW Vasile Lamb - Total TPE: 1433 @dlamb Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 649 342 379 721 134 3928 1469 2877 366 68 76 5 Personal Awards: 0 Lamb’s career reads as very similar to Pearce’s to me, just with some additional player movement and without that one standout season. The cumulative numbers look nice - 342 goals is 42nd all-time, 68 game winning goals is tied for 17th all-time, and 2877 hits is third all-time. Those totals are something you look for in a nine-season career. But I think the trade-off of never truly being top-tier in TPA did hurt Lamb, both in terms of individual season highs (he topped 40 goals three times) as well as team placement (he’d play for six teams in those nine seasons). Another very good player, but the nine season career is not leading to the Hall of Fame. (S82) G Cole Pearce - Total TPE: 1654 @N0HBDY Season GP W L OTL SV% GAA SO GA SA MP Totals 504 278 182 42 0.922 2.65 33 1333 17110 30162 Personal Awards: 1 (S86 Lowest GAA) We have our first goalie! When I was active with Booberry, I watched Pearce’s career with great interest because he took the path I didn’t take. I thought that the additional season of regression would hurt too much, and especially with all of the competition at the goalie position, it would put me behind the eight ball too much. The final answer to that then is a resounding - maybe? Pearce did indeed only win one individual award, as he was competing with a rash of goalies in the next couple of draft classes who were able to keep pace with him in TPA. However, he also had arguably his best season in his eighth season (49 wins, .929 save percentage) before retiring one season early. Another one for the Hall of Very Good here. (S82) D/RW Tavish DeGroot - Total TPE: 1447 @rory Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 577 197 318 515 115 2305 943 1417 981 30 63 5 Personal Awards: 0 There’s a trend I’m noticing as I’m going through too. Many members are starting to top 1700, 1800 TPE and work their way towards the upper reaches of the TPE leaderboard. But by and large, those aren’t the players skipping the VHLE, which you might expect. That’s why I’m putting final TPE totals by player names, because you’re seeing a lot of very strong totals in the 1300-1700 range, but not necessarily totals that can withstand a fourth season of regression which leads to eight season careers regardless. Anyway, as somebody who has had two players start on defense and switch to winger at the end of their career, it makes interpreting career stats a bit of a mess. DeGroot’s career was solid enough (especially with that S84 Continental Cup), but they wouldn’t top 70 points in a season until the final season playing on the wing in Seattle. (S82) D Max Torq - Total TPE: 1728 @Steve Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 576 166 403 569 97 2169 780 1197 1200 33 81 3 Personal Awards: 0 Comparing apples to apples of defensemen who went nine seasons, Torq had some slightly higher highs than did DeGroot - a point total that stayed consistently between 61-86 between his second and eighth seasons, a 1200 shots blocked total that ranks 37th all-time. And similar to DeGroot he’s got a Continental Cup, with Torq’s coming in Season 83 with Seattle. But in his eight season career (he retired a season early similar to Pearce), there weren’t too many very high peaks. A very valuable player to every team that he was on and occasionally in the awards conversation, but ultimately did not bring home any hardware himself. (S83) C Scotty Sundin - Total TPE: 1263 @fromtheinside Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 648 334 410 744 41 4015 409 814 322 55 69 10 Personal Awards: 2 (S91 MVP, S91 Most Points) Sundin is an interesting one to me because of the dualities. 1263 is one of the lower total TPEs on the list, and he only topped 40 goals three times in his career. And yet - he’s literally the reigning MVP after career highs with 49 goals and 112 points last season, his 334 career goals are top 50 all-time, and he is the first and only person on this list to play the full nine season career with the team that drafted him (Chicago). I think they’re happy with their investment with the first overall pick, even if they didn’t get a cup out of it. Sundin a point in favor of the argument that it’s not necessarily the length of the career, but how you build for it. (S83) G Brandt Fuhr - Total TPE: 1418 @Tate Season GP W L OTL SV% GAA SO GA SA MP Totals 581 290 243 43 0.924 2.77 32 1592 21000 34533 Personal Awards: 3 (S86 Playoff MVP, S87 Top Goalie, S87 Lowest GAA) Another goalie, and this time the first one to go the full nine! And you could very well argue that he has the best career of the dozen players listed here. A stalwart in net for 8.5 seasons in Vancouver, the Wolves would go to the playoffs six times during that stretch, go multiple rounds in four, and win it all in one. By virtue of going 60ish games longer than any other goalie before him, Fuhr also ranks 19th all-time in wins and 47th all-time in shutouts, and still manages to hold on to a tie with the 18th-best save percentage of all-time. As I’m writing I kind of feel like I’m making an HOF case here, and I think it’s right on that line. Maybe you’d like to see a few more individual awards, but those are tougher to come by in a competitive era. The best case scenario for a nine-season career here. (S83) C Igor Molotov - Total TPE: 1483 @Dom Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 576 250 341 591 -10 2925 761 1601 266 39 60 2 Personal Awards: 0 Molotov reads to me as a player who had a ton of potential, especially following a number of awards at the VHLM level, but that the nine season career may have held back. Molotov’s TPA peak ended up being the same as their player peak, with 41 goals and 88 points in their fifth season of S87. But regression came swift, where despite his only Cup coming in S88 with London, Molotov would not top 34 goals while in regression. Molotov’s another who clocked out after eight seasons rather than face the tough fourth season of regression, limiting their career numbers somewhat. (S83) D AirRig GoodBrandSun - Total TPE: 1558 @Rhynex Entertainment Season GP G A P +/- SHT PIM HIT SB GW PPG SHG Totals 648 121 430 551 214 1847 792 1127 1293 23 53 1 Personal Awards: 1 (S83 Top Defensive Defenseman) We end with GoodBrandSun, whose career is interesting in that they’re the only player to win an individual award in the season they were originally supposed to skip - an award that ended up being the only one of their career, as it turns out. GoodBrandSun developed from a more defensive-oriented player at the beginning of their career (198 shots blocked in S83 was by far their highest) to a more offensive-oriented player (93 points in S86) near the peak of their career. I believe GoodBrandSun is also the first one to reach the playoffs nine times in a career, eight with Calgary and one with Seattle, with a Calgary Cup coming in S87. Overall a career I’d call a nine-season success story, even if it didn’t come with necessarily the individual accolades. Verdict for Me: After doing the exercise, I’m leaning towards not trying to go nine seasons in the VHL with Antonia Bucatini. While there are some mitigating factors at play with many of the players who tried it in this sample, there are a lot of flame outs on this board - and depending on Fuhr and Sundin potentially not a Hall of Famer in the bunch. Even those with high TPE totals like Nico Pearce (or later Henry Eagles and The Frenchman) may not be seeing the individual success they hoped for themselves on draft day. But there’s always that temptation to try something that not many others have, so it may end up being a conversation between myself and my future VHL team following the draft.
  3. As a player from Italy, I'm proud of our fellow Team Asians for our group stage run.
  4. Just another ping for @FrostBeard, you've got 2 picks and 4 hours into the second one
  5. D - Liv Slater G - Jesse Teno @chikn
  6. 1. I'm here for the vibes. Seriously though, I don't really have personal ambitions, just think it would be fun to see Halifax good again after some struggles. 2. I tend to be all or nothing, for better or worse. It's why I take seasons off between players to recharge, but when I'm here, I like testing myself to see what I can build by maxing out. 3. Recruitment! Would love to have new players join us to build something in Halifax, it's a great place to get some playing time quickly and learn the ropes. 4. A playoff bid's a good start. I'm not going to say that we should be a title contender immediately or anything, but with the randomness of the playoffs, you never know if you get there... 5. I'm excited to see how Kendra Cavill @Firekiss does. Kendra has a good start on building those goalie skills already, and think she could be a real key for this team to go far. 6. Enjoying it thus far! The main thing will be to keep bringing the positivity, and hope that I'm able to help with that on the boards and in the LR.
  7. Just a heads up, noticed this when I was copying off other drafts for ideas - Wolanin's retired @STZ
  8. D - Jacob Stone F - Todd Cooke @chikn
  9. @Grape is over time, @chikn can jump in
  10. Welcome all! You should come join Halifax, we've got playing time and a chance to build something fun here.
  11. Running updated list: 1. @CowboyinAmerica F - John Jameson F - Todd Cooke F - Yaroslav Trunov D - Jacob Stone D - Liv Slater G - Jesse Teno 2. @chikn F - Larry Abass Jr F - Henry Eagles F - Alfred Champagne D - Rex Wolffe Gregor D - Kronchy Kardashian G - Art Vandelay 3. @Grape F - Wann Kerr F - Mac Atlas F - Left Alone D - Obuz Schneider Canet du Bocage D - Leif Reingaard G - Olober Syko 4. @zepheter F - S*ubbed Analfist F - AK92 Wit Da Hoodie F - Jimi Jaks D - Pierre Emile Bouchard D - Simons Worst Nightmare G - Merome Dilson 5. @wcats F - Jasper Davis F - Molly the Cat F - Daryl Dixon D - Elias Lampi D - Skor McFleury G - Fuukka Rask 6. @FrostBeard F - Jason F - Grimgor Ironhide F - Nikolas Kauppi D - Mark Calaway D - Ben Laas G - Henry Tucker Jr.
  12. Need SBA in Affiliates Something I'm not sure we've ever tried but might be worth looking into is podcast advertising. I don't listen to any hockey podcasts so I don't know the landscape, but do know they give a decent bang for the buck if we're getting back into the paid world.
  13. Team Asia going to shootouts against the two strongest teams
  14. Season 92 Donation Transaction ID: 55E67499FK049434C 5 Uncapped Doubles Week 1M Player Store
  15. 1. I've always wanted to do a Mediterranean trip, see Italy, Greece or even over to Morocco. I'll get there one day. 2. I've got my eye on LA. They've got the talent to do it for sure, and they've got the impetus to do it quickly. Plus it doesn't hurt that North America has more rebuilding teams. 3. I think the salary scale is pretty finely tuned as is. I do like the SBA's idea of a bonus pool based on previous season's finish though, give a bit of a boost for players to chase that out. Questions: 1. Are you excited for the drafts this week? Why or why not? 2. Who's a player or team that you think everyone is sleeping on this offseason? 3. What are you looking forward to most in 2024?
  16. Who needs spaghetti when you have lo mein? Let's do this thing!
  17. Rome, Italy -- Last season, Italian forward Antonia Bucatini joined the ranks of the VHLM at the trade deadline, playing down the stretch and into the playoffs for the Philadelphia Reapers. And for that brief period, she acquitted herself adequately - particularly during a playoff run that saw Bucatini average more than a point per game as the fifth-seeded Reapers made the finals. However, all of that comes as a precursor to what's next: a full VHLM season. This coming Sunday, Bucatini will know her VHLM home for the season as she prepares to enter the Season 93 VHL Draft. "It's a different type of anticipation. It's not the 'get ready to play' type of butterflies, but something else," Bucatini told American reporters after a recent workout. "There's so much that's out of your hands here, it's a bit nervewracking." Indeed, Bucatini's VHLM future may very well be decided by the time the draft wraps up. At this moment, she has only been contacted by two of the league's 10 teams, though that number may increase the closer we get to the draft. Seeing as how Bucatini's skill level is already enough to play in the VHLE in some scouts' eyes, it is expected that she will only play one season in the minor league before moving up. As a result, her response to the teams' questions was largely the same. Bucatini noted that while she doesn't need to be on a superteam, she doesn't want to be on a rebuilding squad either. She hopes that any team taking her in the draft has a reasonable shot of at least making the playoffs, if not making some noise in the playoffs, this season. "I do hope that GMs contact me too. I like to hear the plan," she added. "But no matter where I land, I think it'll be a good season ahead. I'm excited to see what I can do with a full season under my belt."
  18. In speaking of Training Camp: Since a good deal of VHLM players won't be put onto teams until Sunday and it's currently scheduled to close like 7 hours later, just wanted to double check that Training Camp will be available to claim somehow for those players? (Or would it be possible to let actives not on teams still claim it?)
×
×
  • Create New...