Claimed:Who will hold the #1 pick? [Final 6/6]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

 

Which team will hold the first pick?

 

It’s safe to say that I have somewhat of a particular interest into what happens with the first overall pick. However, it’s not just because my client, Hans Wingate, is in line for the first overall pick in the draft. It’s because, for the first time in a while, the possibilities of not only who will be drafted, but which team will be drafting there, are endless.

 

Yesterday, YEAH! put together an informative read analyzing the lottery, which I highly suggest that you read if you have not already. One thing he did not do, however, was spend so much virtual ink on which teams would potentially trade with Stockholm for that number one pick. There’s a good reason for this: Trades are incredibly speculative, and you never know the full depth of a team’s plans through even one trade. Who would have predicted both Koenig and Sinclair on the same team last season? It’s a fool’s errand to predict trades.

 

Well, I personally find it more fun to be a fool. That’s why I’ve sorted each of the VHL’s 10 teams by how likely they are to wind up with the number one overall pick. You may disagree with the assessments here, but creating arguments in the comments is half the fun of speculative articles anyway.

 

10. Seattle Bears

 

The Bears may be a young team, but their holes aren't that numerous. There certainly isn’t one at goalie, where Mikaelson will likely be in place for a while. With Stropko, Rhinehart and Strauss, wing also seems full. Those two particular positions, however, are where presumptive number one candidates Wingate, Delicious and Faux play, and especially given Delicious’s stated desire to not play in Seattle, trading up for one of them would seem odd. If Seattle strongly prefers either Escabar or Morgan over the other, I could see a trade up to #2 or #3, but not what it would take to move all the way up to #1.

 

9. HC Davos Dynamo

 

It’s simply wait and see time for the Dynamo; they really don’t have much of a reason to try and acquire back their own first. Callum Sinclair is set in goal, and the team has more forwards than it knows what to do with. Adding another player right now would either be a luxury that it cannot afford, or a very early assault on a salary cap problem that could cripple it in two seasons’ time. The only reason I put them above Seattle is that they have more pieces if they did want to work out a trade.

 

8. Quebec City Meute

 

Heading into Season 43, the Meute would seem to have the strongest team, especially before Waldron and Wolf are hit too hard by depreciation. Couple that with relatively young wingers in Cattrall and Jakobssen, and the additional pieces it would require to jump from the 8th pick (at the earliest) to 1st, and it’s unlikely the Meute would pull the trigger on a piece that falls outside their current age ranges. The only way I could see it: Quebec is scared by Waldron’s incremental production and shoot for Wingate as a goalie for the next four seasons. I’m not banking on it.

 

7. New York Americans

 

If I had to make a prediction, I see New York going for it all with a Season 32-esque final run this next season before Wahl and XXX ride into the sunset. If that is indeed the case, shipping off a load of picks/players for a young guy that would have to sit through a rebuild would not be the soundest decision. Adding Delicious or Faux may be nice as a Low replacement, but the amount New York would need to give up does not make it feasible. If New York decides to blow it up a season ahead of schedule, though, Wingate wouldn’t make a bad first rebuilding piece.

 

6. Cologne Express

 

This middling spot isn’t for a lack of need; I’m sure Cologne would love to put Wingate in goal, or pair Delicious or Faux with O’Malley, for the rest of the Season 40 stars’ careers. However, Cologne simply doesn’t have much that would match with Stockholm for the first overall pick. Including Laich, who would retire immediately as a GM player, any of Cologne’s older guys would only be for one season, and I’m skeptical that Cologne would give up former GM Caprivi. Couple that with a lack of Cologne firsts, and a deal would be tough.

 

5. Riga Reign

 

Naturally, a trade into the first slot wouldn’t be for Wingate, and I would think that Riga would be content to wait and see whether Delicious or Faux (or both) fall to number two. But what about if Riga fell in love with one player, particularly Delicious, who has said that he would love to spend his entire career with the franchise? It wouldn’t cost too terribly much to move up one spot on the board, and it would guarantee Riga the player of their choice. I wouldn’t say that it’s likely, but I believe it’s possible.

 

4. Helsinki Titans

 

At first glance, Helsinki would seem to be in the same boat as Quebec, but in actuality, the team is my dark horse for a pick swap for three main reasons. First, the team will see a ton of cap come off the books with Young and Gow’s retirements. Second, with most of their core between S38 and S40, they’re in the sweet spot to be a contender, but they will need to add to their team somehow with only two wingers and one season of a goalie. Third, unlike Quebec, they actually have young prospects in Demko and Patton that could be intriguing trade options. Now, would Stockholm want to help out the conference leader? For the right price, I could see it.

 

3. Toronto Legion

 

It’s crunch time for the Legion. Having already seen Devin Sundberg walk out the door before Season 42, the team could see the same thing with Jerrick Poole before Season 43 if it does not demonstrate marked improvement that catapults it over Quebec (and a closing fast Seattle) for seasons to come. Goalie is the obvious need right now; Okranitz’s updating has middling as of late, and Salo is a poor long-term answer. However, would it be willing to spend the price needed to move from a presumed 6th pick up to number one for a goalie answer in Wingate? Getting a franchise goaltender isn’t worth it if you gut the team’s core to do it, and Toronto is looking to win now.

 

2. Calgary Wranglers

 

As YEAH! explained in his piece, Calgary really needs a bit of everything, and it would make all the sense in the world for the team to hold at number three and pick up the best player available. Goalie prospects, though, don’t come along every day. The team does have one currently, having picked up Coca Cola at the trade deadline, but his recent work ethic has been... spotty, at best. Wingate is two seasons younger, and he currently has more TPE as it is. Stockholm would probably be a willing trade partner, as it would have its choice of Faux, Morgan or Escabar at the spot. However, for a rebuilding team, picks are important capital, and Calgary may feel either confident in Cola picking up the pace or grabbing a goalie down the road rather than spending the pieces to move up two spots.

 

1. Stockholm Vikings

 

When in doubt, the team currently holding the selection is the best option. E’Twaun Delicious could very easily be a first line winger for the team, perhaps as early as Season 44 if he outpaces Jeltz and De Rossi in TPE. It also helps that, unlike Calgary and Seattle, Delicious has shown a willingness to go to the team, even if it’s not his first choice. In my humble opinion, though, the more interesting dilemma comes in the form of the Campbell v. Barnstormer v. Wingate debate. Campbell was the highest draft selection last season, and he has had the whole year to integrate himself into the locker. Barnstormer may have the most current TPE of the three; just wait for that offseason update. Wingate may be the solution to postponing cap problems by a year, but he hasn’t had the time to gel with the team. It’s an interesting dilemma with the first pick, and Stockholm has until they are on the clock to figure it out.

[Victor 10,943]

Oh I'm loving the hype around this. We've had the recent trades for 2nd overall (Richardson and Sinclair) but the last time the actual first pick was traded in that draft's off-season was all the way back in Season 12: http://www.vhlforum.com/index.php?/topic/141-s12-vhl-entry-draft/

which btw remains one of my all-time favourite drafts. Might have had something to do with the fact it was the 2nd one I witnessed but it had a move up from 4th to 1st + everyone thought Gartner was going first before the Titans made the (very) right choice and picked Bailey and made him GM.

Anyway, let the speculation continue and hopefully it delivers something.

On a sidenote, you mention Caprivi, well, unless Devise steps down before then, his recreate (presumably S45 or S46) wouldn't be able to be on the team alongside Romanes' GM recreate... so they'll have to trade him anyway. Doubt it'd be now though, so I agree.

[boubabi 4,725]

On a sidenote, you mention Caprivi, well, unless Devise steps down before then, his recreate (presumably S45 or S46) wouldn't be able to be on the team alongside Romanes' GM recreate... so they'll have to trade him anyway. Doubt it'd be now though, so I agree.

wut

[Kesler 1,514]

Ha regression doesnt touch great players like Wolf. Although I did try last season to acquire a top 4 pick I dont think I will try this season it just could not make sense but ya never know.

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

On a sidenote, you mention Caprivi, well, unless Devise steps down before then, his recreate (presumably S45 or S46) wouldn't be able to be on the team alongside Romanes' GM recreate... so they'll have to trade him anyway. Doubt it'd be now though, so I agree.

 

Good point, didn't consider that. Don't think it would bump up Cologne on my ranking though.

[Tagger 2,722]

I got them props! Great article sir. 

 

The fact that Boubabi still holds the fifth pick in the draft is also an interesting option for trades. While there are some strong first gens later in the draft, you would say that their are five top talents in this draft, so that #5 pick could essentially be even more sought after than the #1 pick. It will be interesting to see whether the Vikings are more willing to trade their #1 pick because they know they can still get a good talent at #5, or in fact whether they'll use that to their advantage and shop around the fifth overall knowing that they'll already have picked their favourite player in the draft and that teams might want to trade up to grab the last elite talent.

[boubabi 4,725]

You guys are more prepared than me 

[scoop 3,432]

Oh I'm loving the hype around this. We've had the recent trades for 2nd overall (Richardson and Sinclair) but the last time the actual first pick was traded in that draft's off-season was all the way back in Season 12: http://www.vhlforum.com/index.php?/topic/141-s12-vhl-entry-draft/

which btw remains one of my all-time favourite drafts. Might have had something to do with the fact it was the 2nd one I witnessed but it had a move up from 4th to 1st + everyone thought Gartner was going first before the Titans made the (very) right choice and picked Bailey and made him GM.

Anyway, let the speculation continue and hopefully it delivers something.

On a sidenote, you mention Caprivi, well, unless Devise steps down before then, his recreate (presumably S45 or S46) wouldn't be able to be on the team alongside Romanes' GM recreate... so they'll have to trade him anyway. Doubt it'd be now though, so I agree.

Yeah the S12 draft was the best draft!

[Da Trifecta 1,899]

Favorite*

[eaglesfan036 4,603]

I think it would be fun if someone had the 1st pick but didn't take Wingate, would troll the whole draft

[DollarAndADream 3,356]

Content: 3/3 - Very nice write up. Lots of hype and speculation heading into this draft.

 

Grammar: 2/2 - Pretty much no mistakes, as I expect from an ex-grader.

 

"to integrate himself into the locker." - locker room

 

Appearance: 1/1 - Excellent.

Overall: 6/6

Edited April 9, 2015 by DollarAndADream

[CowboyinAmerica 2,889]

Claimed