A Comprehensive Offseason Preview: North America [1/2]

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

 

North America: The Offseason Preview

 

It’s safe to say that most teams in the VHL are at a crossroads. On one hand, you have the Meute, Reign and Titans of the world – obvious contenders, but for how long given players’ ages and salary cap situations? Then, you have teams like the Legion and Davos, that have waited a long time to compete, and their day is finally here. Teams like the Bears and Wranglers are looking to be the next big thing with young players, while the Vikings and Americans are firmly in the midst of a rebuild. And who knows what’s going on with new leadership in Cologne?

 

Yes, it’s an interesting time in the VHL. That’s why, as we head into the offseason, it’s worthwhile to take stock of each team’s prospect moving forward. In this offseason preview, I’ll explore three topics for each team: an overview of where they stand moving forward, their biggest upcoming decision of the offseason, and one off-the-wall idea that might be worth consideration.

 

As always, if I forget something, it’s because I hate you and want you to suffer, not that I made a mistake. And it’s also worth noting that I was originally going to do every team in the league, but I started getting up near 1200 three teams in, so I’m only doing North American teams. Sorry, the rest of the league.

 

 Calgary Wranglers

 

Overview: Following their first round upset of the Toronto Legion, the Wranglers are in an odd place. I’m still not sure they have the talent to compete long-term, not the least of which because the defense that carried them this season will take a hit with Kronos retiring and Dotran being hit hard by depreciation. But then again, a trio of Jacob, Leblanc and Savard is a solid core to build around, and especially for Jacob, they probably wouldn’t receive the trade return that they’d desire.

 

Big Decision: As I alluded to above, it’s when to rebuild. But it’s not as easy a decision as one might think. The Legion demonstrated this year that they aren’t quite ready to make the leap to a contending team, and Seattle didn’t even show as much as Toronto did. The Meute, meanwhile, will try to bring their whole core back, but with Fook Yu moving to a prime contract everyone’s about to get real expensive. Rebuilding would be the obvious play, but I’ve seen Eagles zag when everything thought he should zig before, and Calgary could be a top free agency destination.

 

Off-the-Wall: I couldn’t tell you his own personal feelings about the franchise, but I actually view this as the perfect landing spot for the combination of Vernon von Axelberry and Ko Kane. Calgary would get a tiny bit younger at goalie, has the money to provide von Axelberry with the high first year contract that he’d prefer, and would get a top TPE earner with the seventh pick in the draft. It would mean letting Jacob go to free agency, but a sign and trade wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility either. And I think following his S56 season, Robbie would prefer being on a team with a playoff chance.

 

 New York Americans

 

Overview: They’re certainly in rebuilding mode, but the cupboard isn’t bare. Sergei Kamarov is turning out to be an excellent steal and likely the third-best player from the S56 draft, and he’ll be the first line center in New York for years to come. Ike Arkander is a franchise goalie for the long-term, and the team has five first round picks in the next two drafts. This year, they’ll have the eighth pick for sure, and either the first or second depending on the results of the lottery.

 

Big Decision: The results of that lottery, though, are anything but sure. Even with the worst record, the Americans have just a 25 percent shot at the first pick, and a 75 percent chance at falling to number two. The mutual attraction between New York and center Chase Keller has not been a big secret, but it’s also not a big secret that he’s the top talent in the draft. What happens if say Cologne, who Keller would prefer not to go to but does have a good relationship with the GM, takes him first overall anyway? Then the Americans are staring at a bunch of defensemen and goalies, the former of which can certainly help the team, but probably weren’t what the team was looking for when tanking in a supposedly strong draft. I also wouldn’t put New York past packaging 2 and 8 to move up to 1 and make sure they get their man.

 

Off-the-Wall: Why exactly does Ike Arkander exist? No, seriously, I’ve never quite understood why you would make a goalie as a GM player in the current market. The amount of goalies that are Season 53 or younger is staggering, and when New York actually wanted to compete, they would be able to pick one up for cheap. What’s preventing the GM from retiring Arkander right now, then drafting whoever slips between Brodeur and Kensington to the eighth pick this draft? It might hurt to give up that work put in, but it could be a better long-term play for the franchise.

 

 Quebec City Meute

 

Overview: At the time of this writing, the Meute are on the precipice of winning their first championship in more than 20 seasons. It’s been a long time coming for the franchise if it does indeed happen, and I applaud the GM Frank for the hard work and shrewd moves he’s put in to getting the Meute to this point. But it’s like they say – the only thing harder than winning your first championship is winning your second. And despite the Meute actually being in surprisingly good shape cap-wise, that’s only because some of their key players have either gone inactive (Locke) or are retiring (Maximoff). Depreciation hits hard for a key player in Skye too.

 

Big Decision: It’s clear that the Meute are going to need reinforcements – the franchise has tried to win before with four high-TPE forwards and one defenseman, and it’s a strategy that doesn’t really work too well. The issue, though, is that there’s no obvious trade target that will be rebuilding this offseason. The cupboards are completely bare in Stockholm/Vasteras, Cologne and New York, and the rest of the league has designs to compete next season. Maybe Calgary might be a fit, but if that’s the case, Calgary’s a fit for everyone else too. Quebec will need to pay a premium to reload, and with no S58 first, that means getting creative. The only question is how.

 

Off-the-Wall: Blowing it up is always a possibility for the Meute, but given the state of the rest of North America, I think it makes more sense to reload and shoot for another Cup rather than completely tear it all down. To need that, though, they’ll need depth. Typically in a deal you always want to be getting the better player, but for the Meute, it might make sense to pursue 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals simply for more bodies. It would hurt to get rid of Solas, but would it make sense to trade, say, Muller to Toronto for the platter of Xander Finn, Dexter Lane and Daring Do? Toronto gets an offensive centerpiece, but Quebec gets desperately needed depth for another go.

 

 Seattle Bears

 

Overview: For a while, it looked like the Bears might be able to pull the upset and sneak into the playoffs. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, and Seattle predictably faded as the season went on. Still, the season has to be considered a success for the young franchise, and they have a clear path moving forward. McAllister, Forsberg and Laflamme provide a strong first line moving forward, Federov might just be the best young defenseman in the league with the projected fourth pick to grab another, and they now have a top-flight goalie in Mist4ke. There’s just one issue: Toronto is one step ahead of them in almost every area, and their respective ages are very comparable. Seattle has to make a big move to go over the top.

 

Big Question: The question for Seattle is one that they’ve had a problem with for a while: player development. Nicodemus Raven was expected to be part of the blue line of the future, but he hasn’t even made the VHL. Xavier Laflamme’s development has stalled out, and he needs to show something to be in the team’s long-term plans. Key Perought went inactive for stretches as well, resulting in the Bears bringing in another goalie. And even Mattias Forsberg may not be developing at the rate some would have expected given his blistering minors pace. The pieces are there, but can Seattle encourage them enough to complete the rebuild in time?

 

Off-the-Wall: Almost anything is on the table for Seattle this offseason, and I expect them to be very active. As a result, there isn’t too much I can say that would be too off the wall. If anything, there’s this: I wouldn’t be shocked to see Aleksei Federov move, even though he’s a player from the same agent as the GM. Especially given McAllister’s Season 56 status, the Bears might be looking to get a bit younger to move themselves off the same time frame as the Toronto Legion, and given the explosion of talented defensemen in this draft, a Federov for an S57 first trade makes a whole lot of sense. Calgary (7th pick) and Riga (6th pick) both make a whole lot of sense given that both teams have a top flight defenseman that will be retiring this offseason.

 

 Toronto Legion

 

Overview: Going into Season 56, I don’t think you would have called the fourth best record in the league and a first round loss necessarily disappointing for the Legion. The way they went out against the Wranglers, though, likely left a bad taste in fans’ mouths. Toronto is still the hot “next big thing” in the league, but despite Bo Boeser’s best efforts, the team still lacks a top-flight offensive player to put them over the top. And I’m not so sure how soon that’s going to come in-house – Daring Do hasn’t updated since August 21. Verner Reinholdt since August 7. Xander Finn since May 30. And the time is clearly now, as the entire core will be on prime contracts by next offseason.

 

Big Question: To me, Toronto has been the hardest team to come up with a big question for. Their path is fairly clear – hope and pray that the current core continues or starts to update, and stay on the current course to outlast Quebec’s old guys and outpace Seattle coming up from behind. So my question for Toronto is fairly standard, but it’s this: a defenseman or Jeff Gow in the draft? In my first mock draft, I had Keaton Louth going in that spot, and I still think that’s a reasonable selection. But it would worry me that not a single (non-retiring, thanks Doughty) winger has updated for them in a month. Especially given the earlier draft spot of fifth than many originally thought, going with the sure thing winger in Gow to go along with many of the long-time VHL members on the roster seems to make a lot more sense.

 

Off-the-Wall: The Legion have seemed to double down on getting as many GM’s second players as possible, especially now that Advantage has once again taken over a team. Well, why not go even further and offer a godfather offer to Calgary for Felix Savard? He fits right into the team’s preferred age of contention as a Season 55 player, he would give Toronto one of the best blue lines in the league alongside Sokolov, and Calgary has been a reasonable trading partner for the franchise in the past. It might take a bit of a premium to convince the Wranglers to start the rebuild, but two firsts (plus maybe a piece like Aackckqz Ky) could get that done.

 

 

[CowboyinAmerica 2,911]

The above is 2000+ words. Will be claimed for the weeks of:

 

September 25

October 2

October 9

October 16

[Gudnason 607]

Very nice read. Rudi Ying to Toronto? @DollarAndADream

[Frank 5,259]

Should be interesting. 

[DollarAndADream 3,357]

41 minutes ago, Frank said:

Should be interesting. 

Real interesting.

[Kendrick 4,741]

Oh I don't prefer "not" to go to Cologne at all. Just wasn't a big fan of joining an inept GM, but they have one with knowledge now.

[hedgehog337 3,483]

6 hours ago, CowboyinAmerica said:

so I’m only doing North American teams. Sorry, the rest of the league.

 

 

Let him to create a second player as I demand to see the Riga offseason preview! 

 

btw, I think we have the 5th pick because Toronto was better than Helsinki. 

Edited September 30, 2017 by hedgehog337

[DollarAndADream 3,357]

Review:

Great little preview here. I like the thoughts on the Legion especially. It will be interesting as the season goes on what it all comes down to...

[eaglesfan036 4,605]

@CowboyinAmerica i didn't rebuild ha i zig u zag zig zag!