VHLM S68 Advanced Metrics [1/2]

[DMaximus 1,046]

VHLM S68 Advanced Metrics

I wrote a similar post for the VHL here. Here I’ll be presenting the same Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO statistics for the VHLM. You can read my previous post for a brief description of what these advance metrics are or just ask here if you have any questions.

 

Here are the current standings when I ran the report.

 

Team	GP	W	L	OTL	P	GF	GA	Diff	Streak
Minnesota	21	15	3	3	33	76	44	32	W1
Houston	20	15	5	0	30	65	37	28	W6
Las Vegas	21	14	6	1	29	75	53	22	W2
Yukon	21	12	8	1	25	57	53	4	L1
Mexico City	21	11	8	2	24	54	58	-4	W1
Mississauga	21	11	8	2	24	67	61	6	L1
Halifax	21	11	9	1	23	77	79	-2	W1
San Diego	20	9	10	1	19	71	79	-8	W3
Philadelphia	20	6	11	3	15	66	79	-13	L2
Saskatoon	21	6	12	3	15	60	89	-29	L2
Ottawa	21	4	14	3	11	48	84	-36	L5

 

 

Corsi

CorsiFor is the shot attempts taken by your team

CorsiAgainst is the shot attempts allowed by your team

Corsi is CorsiFor minus CorsiAgainst. A positive number means you’ve taken more shot attempts than allowed. Negative means you’ve allowed more than taken.

CorsiForPct takes your team’s CorsiFor number and uses it to make a percentage of the total shot attempts in the game. A CorsiFor% of over 55% is elite.

Team Name	Average of CorsiFor	Average of CorsiAgainst	Average of Corsi	Average of CorsiForPct
Halifax 21st	49.905	45.429	4.476	51.740
Houston Bulls	47.650	35.350	12.300	57.482
Las Vegas Aces	55.333	37.905	17.429	59.426
Mexico City Kings	44.857	56.476	-11.619	44.553
Minnesota Storm	46.905	40.762	6.143	53.658
Mississauga Hounds	45.762	45.571	0.190	50.007
Ottawa Lynx	32.000	53.524	-21.524	37.964
Philadelphia Reapers	43.950	44.700	-0.750	49.375
San Diego Marlins	57.500	51.350	6.150	52.135
Saskatoon Wild	45.667	55.476	-9.810	45.217
Yukon Rush	46.762	48.905	-2.143	48.871
Grand Total	46.899	46.899	0.000	50.000

 

 

Fenwick

The exact same as Corsi, just that shots that are blocked are not counted as an attempt.

 

Row Labels	Average of FenwickFor	Average of FenwickAgainst	Average of Fenwick	Average of FenwickForPct
Halifax 21st	42.762	39.190	3.571	51.692
Houston Bulls	40.350	30.450	9.900	56.905
Las Vegas Aces	46.952	32.095	14.857	59.639
Mexico City Kings	38.238	47.619	-9.381	44.724
Minnesota Storm	40.571	35.333	5.238	53.724
Mississauga Hounds	39.429	38.476	0.952	50.376
Ottawa Lynx	26.571	45.857	-19.286	37.343
Philadelphia Reapers	37.700	38.250	-0.550	49.481
San Diego Marlins	48.300	44.700	3.600	51.328
Saskatoon Wild	39.905	47.190	-7.286	45.828
Yukon Rush	40.476	41.476	-1.000	49.329
Grand Total	40.088	40.088	0.000	50.000

 

 

PDO

 

Row Labels	Average of PDO
Halifax 21st	97.969
Houston Bulls	103.698
Las Vegas Aces	98.205
Mexico City Kings	101.133
Minnesota Storm	105.301
Mississauga Hounds	98.962
Ottawa Lynx	99.841
Philadelphia Reapers	98.231
San Diego Marlins	99.470
Saskatoon Wild	96.558
Yukon Rush	100.697
Grand Total	100.000

 

 

20 games played is a little more than a quarter of the season. This means the data here is a relatively small sample set that may be heavily skewed by strength of schedule. The other caveat I’d like to add is I run these numbers for the entire game, not just when it’s even strength. That may skew the numbers as well.

 

With the caveats written above in mind, some interesting details appear through these numbers.

-          San Diego is leading the league in shot attempts per game, but they are 4^th overall in goals for. More time is needed to tell if they are just a poor shooting team, missing the net or serving up easy saves or if they’ve just started the season running into better than average goalies. They allow the 4^th most shot attempts against, which explains their 4^th most goals for and their current position of 8^th place in the standings. As the season goes on, look for San Diego to rise in the standings and soundly make the playoffs.

-          Mississagua may be the perfect measuring stick for all other VHLM teams to judge themselves against. They are almost exactly at a 0 for Corsi and Fenwick totals and they are smack dab in the middle of the standings. If you’re wondering if your team is going to finish in the top half or bottom half of the standings, check your team’s record against Mississauga.

-          Minnesota’s PDO of 105.301 indicated they have been extremely lucky this season. Or it could be their top-notch goal keeping. Their 3^rd best Corsi and Fenwick numbers indicate they are definitely a top tier team, but their luck may run out at the wrong time.

-          Mexico City’s numbers should be a major worry to all their supporters. They have a slightly elevated PDO at 101.133, but more concerning is their 2^nd worst Corsi and Fenwick percentage, with only bottom-dwellers Ottawa worse than them. Expect Mexico to drop in the standings and maybe miss the playoffs entirely.

-          Even though they are currently in 3^rd place, Las Vegas appears to be the best overall team. They have a 59%+ Corsi and Fenwick percentage. That puts them in the high elite category. Smart money would start placing bets on the Aces to win it all.

Edited September 28, 2019 by DMaximus
added over 300 words to claim as a media spot.

[STZ 5,360]

[ColeMrtz 574]

The Hounds are astoundingly average on paper I guess

[Cxsquared 455]

19 hours ago, ColeMrtz said:

The Hounds are astoundingly average on paper I guess

We're just a well rounded team.

[Renomitsu 934]

Review

Okay, so I'm still learning hockey in general, let alone advanced statistics, but it seems as though Fenwick is a more defense-dependent measure of shot quality than Corsi (as blocked shots aren't counted with Fenwick - thus a large difference in Corsi & Fenwick indicates excellent defense??), and Corsi can be used to measure goalie workload/approximate time of possession. At any rate, as I try to understand what exactly these stand for from a complete novice's perspective, I'm enjoying these articles you write. Thanks for making an attempt to explain them!

[DMaximus 1,046]

On 9/28/2019 at 6:18 PM, Renomitsu said:

Review

Okay, so I'm still learning hockey in general, let alone advanced statistics, but it seems as though Fenwick is a more defense-dependent measure of shot quality than Corsi (as blocked shots aren't counted with Fenwick - thus a large difference in Corsi & Fenwick indicates excellent defense??), and Corsi can be used to measure goalie workload/approximate time of possession. At any rate, as I try to understand what exactly these stand for from a complete novice's perspective, I'm enjoying these articles you write. Thanks for making an attempt to explain them!

 

The only difference between Fenwick and Corsi is that Corsi includes shot attempts that were blocked by an opposing player. Fenwick thinks that shot blocking is a skill and teams should receive credit for blocking a shot (by not having that shot attempt count against them). The difference between the Corsi number and their Fenwick number is simply the number of shots blocked by the team during the game.

 

What statisticians have found is that Corsi/Fenwick is a better predictor of future success than focusing on something like shots on goal or goal differential. And yes Corsi/Fenwick can indicate possession time, because if you're taking more shot attempts, you probably have the puck more. Corsi Against does track goalie workload (which is the origin of Corsi) because the goalie needs to react to all shot attempts, not just the ones that land on goal.