It's been a few days since the release of Gustav's Mock Draft, that big thing I wrote that actually turned out pretty well (at least for a relatively inexperienced new guy). I've been thinking about breaking it down here, and now I will, 75% because I want to and 25% because @Beaviss wanted to see it. Here you have it...
List of Picks Correctly Predicted by Gustav's Mock Draft:
For the sake of common sense, if a team has two consecutive picks, and a player was predicted for one and drafted at either, that player is included. For example, Owen May was my predicted #10, but was picked at #11. He is included here because both picks were Moscow's.
First Round:
#1: Hunter Hearst Helmsley (Riga Reign)
#2: Julius Freeman (Vancouver Wolves)
#3: Shane Mars (Seattle Bears)
#4: Mikko Aaltonen (Riga Reign)
#7: Jerry Garcia (Malmo Nighthawks)
#9: Aron Nielsen (Riga Reign)
Second Round:
#11: Owen May (Moscow Menace)
#16: Apollo Hackett (Riga Reign)
#17: Rusty Shackleford (Malmo Nighthawks)
#20: Valeri Morozov (Seattle Bears)
Third Round:
#25: Edgar Tannahill (Moscow Menace)
#26: Nethila Dissanayake (Calgary Wranglers, though Riga had the pick when I wrote up the mock)
#29: Jordan Tonn (Helsinki Titans)
Fourth Round:
#33: Edward Vigneault (Moscow Menace)
#35: Emil Passerelli (Moscow Menace)
#37: Nacho (Malmo Nighthawks)
#39: Rhys Chism (Helsinki Titans)
Fifth Round:
Nothing to see here, though I will say that at this point the draft starts to become guesswork more than anything else.
Overall, the mock correctly predicted 17 out of 50 picks, a rate of 34%. It hit about a third of the picks, and if we only went through the fourth round, we'd be at 17 out of 40 (42.5%).
List of Players Selected One Pick Away from Mock Prediction:
#5: Dmitri Volosenkov (Moscow Menace, predicted Davos at #6)
#15: Bert Meyers (Helsinki Titans, predicted Vancouver at #14)
#21: Beau Buefordsson (Moscow Menace, predicted Helsinki at #22)
#22: Ludvig Sederstrom (Helsinki Titans, predicted Moscow at #21)
#30: Guillaume Fontenette (Helsinki Titans, predicted Moscow at #31)
So, this means that the mock was within one pick of 44% of players, and within one pick of over 50% of players through the first four rounds!
I'm not going to figure these into any statistics here, but here are the players who went to the team I predicted, but at a different (nonconsecutive) spot or a different round:
#6: Charlie Paddywagon (HC Davos Dynamo, predicted #13)
#12: John Frostbeard (Calgary Wranglers, predicted #32)
#28: Hans Gruber (Vancouver Wolves, predicted #18)
#52: Dylan Doyle (Calgary Wranglers, predicted #40)
Here's a list which breaks down the mock's accuracy by team...
Malmo Nighthawks: 3/5 (60%)
Riga Reign: 5/9 (55.6%)
Seattle Bears: 2/4 (50%)
Moscow Menace: 4/9 (44.4%)
Vancouver Wolves: 1/4 (25%)
Calgary Wranglers: 1/5 (20%)
HC Davos Dynamo: 0/6 (0%)
New York Americans: 0/2 (0%)
Toronto Legion: N/A
So yeah, I'd attribute quite a bit of this mock's success to dumb luck, but all in all I'm proud of it.
(The above is 500 words exactly, didn't even know until I copied and pasted into Word to make sure)