I already know which pick will net future superstar Taylor Mourning in the S79 VHL Draft

[scoop 3,276]

With the Pre Draft Live S79 Class Rankings having begun, now seems like a good time to take a look at just how high I could potentially be drafted. Given how my last two players turned out, I think it would be fair to say that the floor on Taylor Mourning is relatively low. Neither Justin Rushmore nor Izzy Valencia made it into the VHL, as I went inactive with both of them before even being drafted (resulting in them both being picked in the 40's). Prior to those two, however, I had recently produced Samuel Gate, the second overall pick in the S61 draft, taken behind some guy named Matt Thompson. In terms of earning TPE, I did get off to a great start with Gate, however after just a couple seasons, I went inactive. My recent history will definitely hamper my draft stock, even if I continue earning the max TPE leading up to the draft.

 

This draft class does not seem to be packed with surefire prospects, which definitely bodes well for my chances of being picked high. Tyler Reinhart and Papa Emeritus are currently the only two superstar draftees. Reinhart, as a fellow right wing, will almost assuredly be drafted ahead of me, so I have no illusions that I could be the first overall pick. Other than Reinhart, however, things are very interesting at the top of the class. Emeritus is a goalie, and could possibly just not be something the teams making the first few selections need at all. Jardy is in a similar situation to me with Poopy Peepants, though his absence has been longer than mine; I have had multiple failed players since he was last around with Dragon McDragon, so I would say his reputation has not taken as big of a hit as mine. Peepants is a defenseman as well, so positional need could play a role in which one of us is selected first. Reinhart, Emeritus, Peepants, and my Taylor Mourning are the only draftees who earned 12 capped TPE in the first week, which says something about the lack of depth at the top of the draft. All things considered, I do think I could potentially be picked second overall if one of the top teams picking does not need a goalie and prefers Mourning to Peepants for whatever reason that might be.

 

Along with those three, however, there are other players who could possibly be selected over me even if I continue earning double digit capped TPE as I expect to. Miroslav Tsarov, PadStack's recreate, is currently third in TPE in the draft class. Based on his history, however, I would say Tsarov's ceiling is lower than Mourning's. Spade18 is back with Deagus Rust, though he has not done much yet to prove he is going to make a top-notch player like myself and Jardy have. It is early, though, so we will still see. At this point in time, I think most would say Mourning is the better prospect, but no one needs to make that decision anytime soon. Truthfully, I think if I stay as active as I plan to, these are the only other players who might be selected ahead of me, and even then I give it fairly low odds. There is of course potential for someone else to pick it up and for my recent reputation to outweigh my former glory, but I wouldn't put money on it. If there would be someone, though, DeAndre Hollywood could be a potential candidate.

 

One other thing that needs to be taken into consideration, however, is pre-season recreates. I could potentially have a TPE advantage over most recreates, even with the TPE for late joiners being a thing now (something which I am pleased to see). However, a TPE advantage might not be enough. Let's take a look at some of the members who may recreate in the pre-season (keeping in mind that I don't really know much about what others are going to do).

 

As far as S70 players go, there are three currently playing in the VHL: Jaxx Hextall, Odin Omdahl, and Chad Magnum. Traditionally, someone in their final season would retire and recreate at the deadline, assuming they were planning on recreating at all. Corco is not active with Magnum, so that explains that. ROOKIE745 had it in mind to continue earning TPE with Hextall until the bitter end, even though Toronto has been knocked out of the playoffs, so I am expecting a recreate out of him. zepheter is an interesting case, because he doesn't earn max TPE, but he is still earning some with Omdahl. Even if he does recreate, I would put him in a similar class to PadStack where they get somewhere around 8 capped TPE per week consistently. Ohmdahl did have potential to be better, however, so I think zepheter is more of a threat to my draft position if he does recreate, which given his recent activity I would say is possible.

 

It gets a lot more difficult to anticipate pre-season recreate when you are talking about players who have one season left. Before the TPE for late joiners was a thing, retiring at the deadline gave you more of an advantage. That doesn't mean everyone is going to re-create at pre-season, but the excitement that comes with a new player could entice some people to create now rather than at the next trade deadline. I'm not going to bother looking at the potential for players from S72 or later to be recreating, but it is a possibility. From S71, though, I think if any of Josh, Peace, jRuutu, Doomsday, and DollarAndADream recreating would immediately lower my projection (with the possible exception of Peace, as him being a GM could result in him being claimed with a pick later in the first round). I think I could potentially be picked ahead of leafsman, but I'd give him the edge. BarzalGoat, Nykonax, HearnNation67, and Dil are the only others I feel I have to worry about, and they appear to primarily be welfare players that don't take advantage of all the supplemental point tasks available, so they don't scare me too much.

 

All things considered, looking at who is already in the draft and who might yet join, I'm going to make a much to early prediction and say Taylor Mourning will be picked eighth overall. To give myself a better chance of being correct, I'd give it a range of seven to nine. Of course, it does depend on a lot of things that I just don't know right now, primarily who might be recreating in the pre-season and which teams are picking in the middle of the first round. One GM could feel more confident in my return being legitimate than another, and I think that could be a big factor in me potentially falling a couple more spots than I expect to. Ultimately, I'm not too concerned with it, but it is fun to project. That being said, I don't plan on looking into it any more until we are much closer to my draft.

 

1191 words, claiming for weeks ending 5/2 and 5/9

[Beketov 8,731]

25 minutes ago, scoop said:

some guy named Matt Thompson

Never heard of him, sounds like a scrub.

[Peace 1,518]

Thankfully the GM claim rule was abolished. It was truthfully abused... at least from my perspective.

 

Josh is also a GM, though, and the only way him or I could acquire our own players in the draft is by securing a pick high enough to draft them. If my recreate is the projected #1 pick (as an example) I'm going to need the first overall pick to ensure I get my own player. Similar story with Josh (who's most likely going to be the true #1 pick again) and whatever his recreate is, he'd have to acquire the pick needed to draft his own player based on his draft projection. 

 

Even though the league did implement a system for those who join the draft class late it's still more efficient to retire at the trade deadline. I'd almost guarantee you any S71 player who's passed or projected to hit 1250 TPE will retire at the TDL. You get a season and a half that don't count to your career clock and that's a nice little window to gain as much TPE as you can and really begin a VHL career with one foot already in the door. 

Nice article! 

[JardyB10 4,837]

On 5/2/2021 at 8:33 PM, Peace said:

Thankfully the GM claim rule was abolished. It was truthfully abused... at least from my perspective.

 

Josh is also a GM, though, and the only way him or I could acquire our own players in the draft is by securing a pick high enough to draft them. If my recreate is the projected #1 pick (as an example) I'm going to need the first overall pick to ensure I get my own player. Similar story with Josh (who's most likely going to be the true #1 pick again) and whatever his recreate is, he'd have to acquire the pick needed to draft his own player based on his draft projection. 

 

Even though the league did implement a system for those who join the draft class late it's still more efficient to retire at the trade deadline. I'd almost guarantee you any S71 player who's passed or projected to hit 1250 TPE will retire at the TDL. You get a season and a half that don't count to your career clock and that's a nice little window to gain as much TPE as you can and really begin a VHL career with one foot already in the door. 

Nice article! 

Wait, GM players don't have to play for their own team anymore?

[Peace 1,518]

1 minute ago, JardyB10 said:

Wait, GM players don't have to play for their own team anymore?

Nope.

[JardyB10 4,837]

4 minutes ago, Peace said:

Nope.

And here I was giving @Mistxh J (or maybe it was @Prout) sage advice on how having a player is a real advantage as a GM. Which I guess it still is, you're all but guaranteed to get him after your Entry Level deal at least. Damn.

[rory 1,781]

21 minutes ago, JardyB10 said:

And here I was giving @Mistxh J (or maybe it was @Prout) sage advice on how having a player is a real advantage as a GM. Which I guess it still is, you're all but guaranteed to get him after your Entry Level deal at least. Damn.

Pretty sure you can only sign your player if nobody else wants them

[Peace 1,518]

4 hours ago, JardyB10 said:

And here I was giving @Mistxh J (or maybe it was @Prout) sage advice on how having a player is a real advantage as a GM. Which I guess it still is, you're all but guaranteed to get him after your Entry Level deal at least. Damn.

 

4 hours ago, rory said:

Pretty sure you can only sign your player if nobody else wants them

We can't sign our own players in free agency.

[Beketov 8,731]

35 minutes ago, Peace said:

 

We can't sign our own players in free agency.

@rory and you are kinda both right. Strictly speaking you can’t sign your own players in free agency but under special circumstances it can and has been arranged before.

 

The main point of course is that @JardyB10 is very behind the times.

[Victor 10,614]

On 5/3/2021 at 2:33 AM, Peace said:

Thankfully the GM claim rule was abolished. It was truthfully abused... at least from my perspective.

I don't know what you're talking about...

 

[JardyB10 4,837]

Mother of God

[ROOKIE745 573]

I am indeed earning till the bitter end XD

[ROOKIE745 573]

forgot to say this but yes I will be recreating for S79, I've mentioned my next player a few times in some posts. I don't think ya need to worry about me, late start, only my second player, I've mentioned not capping and being kinda worn out so I may take it slower with him. Eitherway glad to be in the same draft as you and can't wait to see where both our players go.

[scoop 3,276]

On 5/2/2021 at 8:33 PM, Peace said:

Thankfully the GM claim rule was abolished. It was truthfully abused... at least from my perspective.

 

Josh is also a GM, though, and the only way him or I could acquire our own players in the draft is by securing a pick high enough to draft them.

Oh, wow I'm an idiot yeah Josh is a GM too.

 

Though I actually didn't realize the GM claim rule was abolished; I checked the rule book specifically to see but it hasn't been updated.

[scoop 3,276]

On 5/6/2021 at 2:48 PM, ROOKIE745 said:

forgot to say this but yes I will be recreating for S79, I've mentioned my next player a few times in some posts. I don't think ya need to worry about me, late start, only my second player, I've mentioned not capping and being kinda worn out so I may take it slower with him. Eitherway glad to be in the same draft as you and can't wait to see where both our players go.

Yeah, I did actually find somewhere that you said that you were going to be recreating. As far as me or you in the draft goes, I think GM's could see you as a more sure thing to at least be a serviceable, active VHL player. People who are aware of how my most recent three players turned out may (justifiably) be wary of drafting me even if I max out all the way from now until the draft. Samuel Gate turned out decent, even winning best defenseman in his final season, but I was only active with him until the end of his second season. My two players since then, I went inactive before the draft even, so maybe if I make it that far people will have a little more trust in me. Based on what you're saying though, I definitely think the ceiling will be higher for me, though based on the evidence there is definitely a chance I don't reach that potential.

[Beketov 8,731]

11 minutes ago, scoop said:

Though I actually didn't realize the GM claim rule was abolished; I checked the rule book specifically to see but it hasn't been updated.

Honestly it could be someone’s full time job to try and keep that thing fully up to date.