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Claimed:Race for #1 Pick: The schedule [Final 6/6]


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Who has the easiest schedule in the race for #1 overall?

 

We’re down to the final 12 games of the season for most teams, and there’s still an important race to be decided. No, of course it’s not the slap fight occurring between Cologne and Stockholm. It’s something that really matters: the race for the No. 1 overall selection (or at least, the position to not drop beyond No. 2 in the lottery).

 

Right now, the Helsinki Titans hold the worst record in the league with 26 points, just as they have for much of the season. However, I wouldn’t say that they are guaranteed to stay in the position. The Calgary Wranglers actually took over worst record duties before winning two straight to take them to 29 points, and the Riga Reign have lost 11 straight in order to stay at 33 points for a long time.

 

Which team will end with the worst record? That depends a lot on the finishing schedule, the final 12 games for each of the three teams. That’s what we’re here to examine. We’ve established a “strength of schedule index” (SOS index) for each of the three teams left. To do so, I grouped the VHL’s teams into three groups, then assigned each of the groups a point value:

 

Group A (3 points): Cologne, Stockholm, Quebec

Group B (2 points): Seattle, Toronto, Davos

Group C (1 point): New York, Riga, Calgary, Helsinki

 

To compute the SOS index, I took the average of all 12 games that each team has left. Obviously a higher SOS index value means a stronger schedule.

 

3. :rig: Riga Reign

SOS index: 2.00

Toughest games: Vikings (x2), Meute (x2), Express

Chances for wins: Titans (x2), Americans (x2), Wranglers

 

The Riga Reign’s schedule is interesting in that each of the games are extremely tough, or extremely easy; the Reign only play two games total against the three teams in Group B. Especially given that Riga holds a seven point lead over Helsinki, the Reign may need to lose both games against their conference foes in order to have any shot at the first overall pick. We’ll know soon whether they’re still contenders for that spot, as their next four games are all against teams in Group A or Group B; get no more than two points combined in those games, with a loss against Helsinki on Day 120, and they’ll still have a shot.

 

2. :cal: Calgary Wranglers

SOS index: 2.00

Toughest games: Express (x2), Vikings, Meute

Chances for wins: Titans (x2), Americans, Reign

 

The Calgary Wranglers have the exact same strength of schedule as the Riga Reign, they just have a slightly more straightforward path of getting there. The Wranglers have four games apiece against teams in Group A, B and C, although two of those Group B games are against the streaking Toronto Legion. The real interesting number for Calgary, though, may be six: Goaltender Hans Wingate is only eligible to play in six of the team’s remaining games, while backup CAL G must also play in six per league rules. RIG G is exactly the same as his backup, so Riga will not be effected by the goalie rule, and Helsinki’s Fedir Okranitz could play out the season if Helsinki does not want to openly Sabres-style tank.

 

1. :hel: Helsinki Titans

SOS index: 1.58

Toughest games: Express

Chances for wins: Reign (x2), Wranglers (x2), Americans

 

And here you find the only reason this is a remotely entertaining article: The Helsinki Titans have by far the easiest stretch among the bottom teams over their final 12 games. The Titans have already played all of their matches against Stockholm and Quebec this season, and the team only has one more game against Cologne. Meanwhile, the Titans will play Riga and Calgary two times each, likely controlling its own destiny for the worst record in the league. The offense is weaker with Stokes gone, and the defense is weaker with Draper gone, but is that enough to guarantee losses against not only the worst teams, but three games against the slightly-slumping Dynamo as well? Only time will tell, and that time could come very soon, as their next four opponents include each of Riga, Calgary and New York.

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Actually I don't think that's as much of an argument this year? Calgary traded for prime players like Rami and Hill, Riga has signed players like Williams, and Helsinki held onto Stokes and Draper for much of the season and still have Harumpf.

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Actually I don't think that's as much of an argument this year? Calgary traded for prime players like Rami and Hill, Riga has signed players like Williams, and Helsinki held onto Stokes and Draper for much of the season and still have Harumpf.

New York, meanwhile, has NYA SENOR CHANG in the lineup while Godavari Yumalatopinto sits on the bench.

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New York, meanwhile, has NYA SENOR CHANG in the lineup while Godavari Yumalatopinto sits on the bench.

Wait what? That's unfortunate

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Content: 3/3 - Solid article! Riga actually beat Quebec last night. :lol: Wranglers officially have the worst record. Helsinki decided to win a few in that final stretch and the Wranglers just lost them all.

Grammar: 2/2 - Good!

Appearance: 1/1 - Solid!

Overall: 6/6

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