A Breakdown of Gustav's Mock Draft (S66) [2/2]

[Gustav 6,407]

It's been a few days since the release of Gustav's Mock Draft, that big thing I wrote that actually turned out pretty well (at least for a relatively inexperienced new guy). I've been thinking about breaking it down here, and now I will, 75% because I want to and 25% because @Beaviss wanted to see it. Here you have it...

 

List of Picks Correctly Predicted by Gustav's Mock Draft:

For the sake of common sense, if a team has two consecutive picks, and a player was predicted for one and drafted at either, that player is included. For example, Owen May was my predicted #10, but was picked at #11. He is included here because both picks were Moscow's.

 

First Round:

#1: Hunter Hearst Helmsley (Riga Reign)

#2: Julius Freeman (Vancouver Wolves)

#3: Shane Mars (Seattle Bears)

#4: Mikko Aaltonen (Riga Reign)

#7: Jerry Garcia (Malmo Nighthawks)

#9: Aron Nielsen (Riga Reign)

 

Second Round:

#11: Owen May (Moscow Menace)

#16: Apollo Hackett (Riga Reign)

#17: Rusty Shackleford (Malmo Nighthawks)

#20: Valeri Morozov (Seattle Bears)

 

Third Round:

#25: Edgar Tannahill (Moscow Menace)

#26: Nethila Dissanayake (Calgary Wranglers, though Riga had the pick when I wrote up the mock)

#29: Jordan Tonn (Helsinki Titans)

 

Fourth Round:

#33: Edward Vigneault (Moscow Menace)

#35: Emil Passerelli (Moscow Menace)

#37: Nacho (Malmo Nighthawks)

#39: Rhys Chism (Helsinki Titans)

 

Fifth Round:

Nothing to see here, though I will say that at this point the draft starts to become guesswork more than anything else.

 

 

Overall, the mock correctly predicted 17 out of 50 picks, a rate of 34%. It hit about a third of the picks, and if we only went through the fourth round, we'd be at 17 out of 40 (42.5%).

 

 

List of Players Selected One Pick Away from Mock Prediction:

#5: Dmitri Volosenkov (Moscow Menace, predicted Davos at #6)

#15: Bert Meyers (Helsinki Titans, predicted Vancouver at #14)

#21: Beau Buefordsson (Moscow Menace, predicted Helsinki at #22)

#22: Ludvig Sederstrom (Helsinki Titans, predicted Moscow at #21)

#30: Guillaume Fontenette (Helsinki Titans, predicted Moscow at #31)

 

So, this means that the mock was within one pick of 44% of players, and within one pick of over 50% of players through the first four rounds!

 

 

I'm not going to figure these into any statistics here, but here are the players who went to the team I predicted, but at a different (nonconsecutive) spot or a different round:

#6: Charlie Paddywagon (HC Davos Dynamo, predicted #13)

#12: John Frostbeard (Calgary Wranglers, predicted #32)

#28: Hans Gruber (Vancouver Wolves, predicted #18)

#52: Dylan Doyle (Calgary Wranglers, predicted #40)

 

 

Here's a list which breaks down the mock's accuracy by team...

Malmo Nighthawks: 3/5 (60%)

Riga Reign: 5/9 (55.6%)

Seattle Bears: 2/4 (50%)

Moscow Menace: 4/9 (44.4%)

Vancouver Wolves: 1/4 (25%)

Calgary Wranglers: 1/5 (20%)

HC Davos Dynamo: 0/6 (0%)

New York Americans: 0/2 (0%)

Toronto Legion: N/A

 

So yeah, I'd attribute quite a bit of this mock's success to dumb luck, but all in all I'm proud of it.

 

(The above is 500 words exactly, didn't even know until I copied and pasted into Word to make sure)

[K1NG LINUS 145]

I mean, you had to purposely miss a few or people would start to suspect that it wasn't actually live. 

[xsjack 132]

It’s just sad to see Toronto has no picks 

[Beketov 9,025]

Just now, xsjack said:

It’s just sad to see Toronto has no picks 

You clearly aren’t very familiar with @Devise haha

[xsjack 132]

1 minute ago, Beketov said:

You clearly aren’t very familiar with @Devise haha

 Why does he hate picks so much 

[Gustav 6,407]

I especially loved watching the live stream and hearing everyone go all "goddammit Gustav" when pick #5 hit and it wasn't Jagr. 

Of course I had to miss a few picks.

 

Upon further review, it looks like I completely forgot about the section of players I was wildly wrong about. I'll stick that in the comments here when I have the time.

[TheLastOlympian07 2,388]

3 minutes ago, GustavMattias said:

I especially loved watching the live stream and hearing everyone go all "goddammit Gustav" when pick #5 hit and it wasn't Jagr. 

Of course I had to miss a few picks.

 

Upon further review, it looks like I completely forgot about the section of players I was wildly wrong about. I'll stick that in the comments here when I have the time.

@Victor hates me

[Beketov 9,025]

36 minutes ago, xsjack said:

 Why does he hate picks so much 

He just doesn’t care for building through the draft I think, prefers to work with trades and free agency.

[Phil 5,119]

Review:

 

This is interesting to see looking back at the draft to see what was correctly predicted (or close to to). The start of the Spot looks a little barren without a title and picture. Considering the Word Count was 500, but the vast majority of those words are player names or teams, there really should have been some more analysis of why the predictions were right or close or and explanation of those that were way off the marks in terms of where they were picked. Content-wise it just lacks a little. Otherwise it was well laid out. 

[Renomitsu 934]

Review - I'm deeply offended that you made a draft that was better than mine, AND you predicted my draft spot exactly. What the heck, NostraMattias?

I would have liked to see a little reflection on what your thoughts were on some surprising picks (e.g. FrostBeard at #12) and what might have gone into those. But I deeply appreciate the work and effort put into the mock.