Are We About to See Another War?

[thadthrasher 1,692]

As some of you ay know I spent a little bit of time in the United States Army. This time spent made me interested in military affairs, and military interaction all around the world. At the end of my contract I had a 2 year period where I could be recalled if there was a major conflict that occurred, and this was during one of those times where North Korea said "I'm going to do something big" and the rest of the world "lol, k." Needless to say, I was holding my breath.

 

Well, I bring all of this up because we are at yet another time where a world super power is making questionable moves, and whenever that happens there is a feeling of "oh no, what's going to happen now?"

 

For quite some time there has been great tension growing between Ukraine and Russia. This has progressed and we are now seeing an increase in Russian military presence along the border of Ukraine. If you don't know much about what is going on, here's a really interesting video.

 

Look below the video for a summarization....

Spoiler

 

 

Basically, as I understand it, Ukraine and Russia share a deep and rich history. There is a deep desire from Putin to amass territory and power, and he really wants Ukraine back. Essentially, Ukraine and a few other countries were a part of the Soviet Union, and after it disbanded these countries became independent. Over time many of these countries joined NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a combined military alliance, and Putin does not want that to happen with Ukraine. There is a growing narrative that NATO and the West are invading Ukraine and that Russia must come to Ukraine's aid (aka invade and take over). 

 

I post all of this because I'm curious about what some of you know, what your insights are, and what you think!

[Banackock 8,049]

I've been fascinated by it since it really started getting media coverage this go around... Read on it most nights. You can never be too sure.. one side says one thing.. another says another.. Can't really say until something happens but I do have that weird feeling that something is coming! China/Russia and some others (Iran and company) Vs NATO. Who knows! Hopefully not. 

[thadthrasher 1,692]

Just now, Banackock said:

China/Russia and some others (Iran and company) Vs NATO.

I can't even imagine what something like this would do to the entire world. Beyond just infrastructure, but the escalation of force and power could lead to something we may not recover from... scary stuff for sure.

[Ben 200]

To be honest I don’t think it will be a world war. Something might break out but who knows only time will tell.

[Gustav 6,418]

Has there ever been a war between two major nuclear powers? I don't believe so. This would have the potential to be the worst war the world has ever seen if we just jump right into it--the US has the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal, and Russia has the largest. Either is big enough to change the world hugely and permanently if things escalate to that extent.

 

I like to think leaders on both sides genuinely recognize that, but there's also quite the dilemma involved--tell Russia you're going to push back if they invade, and if they do invade, they'll be fully prepared to fight you too. Putin has total control over there, and he's shown before that he's dangerous. We can't just chalk this up as another "oh darn, North Korea is threatening to nuke us again" thing because Russia is far more powerful. But could this just be another Cuban Missile Crisis situation where Russia piles up what they have right next to someone and then backs down when they feel their message has been sent? Also possibly.

 

I don't think this turns into a full-blown WW3, but Putin already invaded Crimea and I can't say I'd be surprised to hear that he's back for Round 2.

 

We'll also (at least not in the US) never see the sheer level of involvement we used to see in wars--technology has changed a ton and it's much safer and more effective for the people attacking to call in an airstrike than to get as many troops on the ground at once. If--and I will specify if--the US gets involved, I don't think we'll see anyone getting drafted because there are just more effective ways to do it than to throw millions of people into the territory you want to protect (and this is coming from someone who REALLY would not like to be drafted). Also for this reason, it's going to be harder to occupy a territory. Ukraine is pretty big and keeping enough people in the right places for long enough to take control would be extremely difficult if there's significant pushback. It's for these reasons that I consider it unlikely that Russia would ever take (or even attempt to take) the entire country, but that doesn't mean they won't invade somewhere to take a chunk out or prove some point.

 

I don't know anything about diplomacy and I'm completely uneducated on warfare and things like that, so don't take anything I'm saying as fact. It's just how I perceive the situation currently.

[Spartan 4,403]

Can we get a poll made for the draft, I've got plans next Friday and don't want another 8 PM Sunday draft  

 

Jokes aside, definitely an interesting one to follow on the news, even seem some tiktoks from Russian soldiers marching in the snow. Always about narratives being pushed by the media and by each side to justify their actions. Hopefully a negotiation can result in a peaceful settlement.

[a_Ferk 766]

34 minutes ago, Gustav said:

This would have the potential to be the worst war the world has ever seen if we just jump right into it--the US has the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal, and Russia has the largest.

Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo

[hedgehog337 3,483]

No.

[DMaximus 1,046]

The US is a warmongering state. We love war so much we don't even follow our own constitution to formally declare war anymore. Just write blank checks to the president to let them kill whomever, wherever. I doubt we'll turn down this golden opportunity to aggressively stoke the flames of war again. Will it be some catastrophic world war? Probably not. But that fear will be echoed by many to scare people into supporting military engagement. Will it cost trillions of dollars, most of which go to people who are funding government officials who make those decisions and aren't personally risking anything, while the vulnerable and poor are taken advantage of yet again? Yes.

[thadthrasher 1,692]

24 minutes ago, DMaximus said:

The US is a warmongering state. We love war so much we don't even follow our own constitution to formally declare war anymore. Just write blank checks to the president to let them kill whomever, wherever. I doubt we'll turn down this golden opportunity to aggressively stoke the flames of war again. Will it be some catastrophic world war? Probably not. But that fear will be echoed by many to scare people into supporting military engagement. Will it cost trillions of dollars, most of which go to people who are funding government officials who make those decisions and aren't personally risking anything, while the vulnerable and poor are taken advantage of yet again? Yes.

I mean, nothing you are saying here is wrong lol

[Gaming Ringleader 246]

*sips maple syrup in the snow watching old men fire rockets at eachother*

[thadthrasher 1,692]

Just now, Lilpfigher said:

*sips maple syrup in the snow watching old men fire rockets at eachother*

If Putin hates NATO and any country associated with it, then Canada isn't able to avoid this lol

[Gaming Ringleader 246]

3 minutes ago, thadthrasher said:

If Putin hates NATO and any country associated with it, then Canada isn't able to avoid this lol

sounds like a good time to win my tickets on the blue orgin flight to space

[Daniel Janser 2,170]

1 hour ago, thadthrasher said:

If Putin hates NATO and any country associated with it, then Canada isn't able to avoid this lol

if you have an average population density of 4 Canadian per square kilometre, I think this is a challenge you could win

[Banackock 8,049]

On 2/7/2022 at 12:35 PM, thadthrasher said:

If Putin hates NATO and any country associated with it, then Canada isn't able to avoid this lol

I

[thadthrasher 1,692]

Ahh, we are seeing it all unfold now!

[Peace 1,533]

Despite the strikes that'll probably continue throughout the night for us on the western continents, I don't think this escalates into a 'world war' like people are assuming. NATO and some UN countries might commit to the threat of deploying troops to Ukraine and engaging Russian military on the ground and in the air, but the majority of the world will simply watch as two superpowers [Russia vs. USA] go at each other if this evolves into that.

 

Right now it's just Russia hitting military targets with missiles and bombs; Ukrainian command and control centers, ammunition depots, Ukrainian Air Force assets, Ukrainian Army assets, surface-to-air missile defense positions, radar arrays and what not. They're disarming the Ukraine before likely annexing the country, I'm not sold many nations want to engage in an active fight against Russia for what's mostly a Russian country in the first place.  

[Banackock 8,049]

https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs

[Banackock 8,049]

14 minutes ago, Peace said:

Despite the strikes that'll probably continue throughout the night for us on the western continents, I don't think this escalates into a 'world war' like people are assuming. NATO and some UN countries might commit to the threat of deploying troops to Ukraine and engaging Russian military on the ground and in the air, but the majority of the world will simply watch as two superpowers [Russia vs. USA] go at each other if this evolves into that.

 

Right now it's just Russia hitting military targets with missiles and bombs; Ukrainian command and control centers, ammunition depots, Ukrainian Air Force assets, Ukrainian Army assets, surface-to-air missile defense positions, radar arrays and what not. They're disarming the Ukraine before likely annexing the country, I'm not sold many nations want to engage in an active fight against Russia for what's mostly a Russian country in the first place.  

Some of the videos etc are pretty crazy! Missiles flying over head, etc. I’ve been glued for weeks and all night now. Good bye sleep.. 

 

I get not wanting to do anything to cause a world war or massive conflict… and Putin will not fuck around if that happens as he’s said.. but it’s also nuts you just gotta let it happen. Pretty sure Putin is aware of the potential sanctions and he doesn’t seem too concerned. Where will it stop? China watching closely right now probably too.. (Taiwan). Those poor people in Ukraine. I can’t even imagine.. and we have people bitch here at the mall that they have to wear masks and “my freedumbs”. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Banackock

[Banackock 8,049]

[thadthrasher 1,692]

2 minutes ago, Banackock said:

Those poor people in Ukraine.

These videos are coming from households where families should be getting their kids ready for school, people should be heading off to work, enjoying life. Instead, missiles, jets, and anti-missile defense systems are waking these people up early in the morning, followed by the establishment of martial law.

[Peace 1,533]

1 minute ago, Banackock said:

Some of the videos etc are pretty crazy! Missiles flying over head, etc. I’ve been glued for weeks and all night now. Good bye sleep.. 

 

I get not wanting to do anything to cause a world war or massive conflict… and Putin will not fuck around if that happens as he’s said.. but it’s also nuts you just gotta let it happen. Pretty sure Putin is aware of the potential sanctions and he doesn’t seem too concerned. Where will it stop? China watching closely right now probably too.. (Taiwan). Those poor people in Ukraine. I can’t even imagine.. and we have people bitch here at the mall that they have to wear masks and “my freedumbs”. 

China won't do anything to Taiwan until they see what NATO and UN do in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's both a strategical and tactical opportunity to collect some passive intel on how countries would react to a real world invasion of another sovereign country, they'll be relying on their military intelligence to interpret the response and create a threat profile for any future decision they make. It might seem crazy right now, just wait until 9:00 AM tomorrow for us as NATO and the UN deploy their responses.

[Banackock 8,049]

1 minute ago, Peace said:

China won't do anything to Taiwan until they see what NATO and UN do in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's both a strategical and tactical opportunity to collect some passive intel on how countries would react to a real world invasion of another sovereign country, they'll be relying on their military intelligence to interpret the response and create a threat profile for any future decision they make. It might seem crazy right now, just wait until 9:00 AM tomorrow for us as NATO and the UN deploy their responses.

Yeah, that’s what I was saying and had mentioned to my girlfriend. They’re watching closely and idk… I’m pretty sure Putin is aware of the potential sanctions and doesn’t seem to give a shit.. 

 

Is this what they meant 2019-2022 when they said “one day you’re gonna miss school” and I’ve always thought hell no.. maybe the innocent world then?

[Peace 1,533]

3 minutes ago, thadthrasher said:

These videos are coming from households where families should be getting their kids ready for school, people should be heading off to work, enjoying life. Instead, missiles, jets, and anti-missile defense systems are waking these people up early in the morning, followed by the establishment of martial law.

As crazy as it sounds, I'm almost certain Ukraine is more desensitized to conflict within their country than we would be if US/Canada was invaded instead.

 

They've been bordering a civil war since 2014 [in my opinion] with the whole Donbas fiasco.

[Peace 1,533]

8 minutes ago, Banackock said:

Potential misinformation.

The same lightning storm moving across that area also confused people in Ukraine.

 

It was probably just lightning and this guy jumped the gun thinking it was missile strikes.