VHFL Nerdy Stat Piece

[Spartan 4,531]

 

WARNING: This is a media spot with numbers.

 

As an avid fan of football and a frequent participant in fantasy football, I've generally always been interested in trying to run some sort of fantasy league in sim leagues/GM leagues. Back in the early S70's when McWolf/Twists ran VHFL, I found myself trying to combine the Excel skills that I had recently learned in college to VHFL, trying to make the process of scoring and tracking VHFL picks in a much simpler and automatic manner. Eventually when Twists went AWOL, Quik came to me knowing that I had developed a Google Sheet for VHFL, and since then I have generally just been the owner/fixer-upper of the VHFL file that is used every season.

 

Over the seasons and years, I've been able to add more functionality to the spreadsheet beyond just its baseline features. Once rosters are set in the thread, the manager can simply copy/paste them into the sheet and the rosters will auto-populate and begin scoring based off the index that day. It tracks from the player scoring sheet, to the team scoring sheet, to the results sheet, and finally to the user ranking sheet as well. Now everyone can see that team scoring breakdown and rankings in real time, which I was very pleased to figure out.

 

Unfortunately, the one thing that always bothered me that VHFL didn't have was ADP. For anyone unfamiliar with fantasy sports, ADP stands for Average Draft Position, which is generally used as a ranking system to apply to all fantasy draft-eligible players. If you ever use Yahoo, NFL, ESPN, etc for fantasy leagues, you'll see that every player has an ADP ranking, and those generally help users figure out what players to draft based on a bunch of formulas, variables, and other league's drafts. Since I do not dabble in algorithms and such, I haven't been able to develop an ADP system prior to VHFL drafts for users to use as a reference. However, I thought it'd be interesting to do an "end of season" glance at ADP using finished drafts and comparing them to their actual VHFL rank.

 

Disclaimers: I generally tried to follow the order of how a thread went, and put delayed picks for skipped/DQ'd users into their original pick slots. I could have just gone with the order of the thread, but I only thought of it midway through populating the sheet. I also only tracked 10 groups since typing out 36 names per group is painful, and I simply preferred not to do all 17 groups. Some average positions will also be blatantly odd since players were selected in 1-2 groups. Live with it.

 

 

ADP and # of Groups

 

Name	# Groups	ADP
Duncan Idaho	10	2.1
Saku Kotkakoivu	10	3.1
Hard Markinson	10	5.5
Jerome Reinhart	10	5.7
Alex Johnston	10	7.5
Paul Atreides	10	8.4
Vasile Lamb	10	8.6
Reylynn Reinhart	10	12.2
Max Torq	10	15.5
Xavier Booberry	10	20.3
Nico Pearce	10	20.9
Papa Emeritus	10	28.3
Oskar Lindbergh	10	30.4
Vinny Detroit	9	7.9
Zeedayno Chara	9	10.3
Tui Sova	9	18.3
Aurelien Moreau	8	14.1
Rolf Fizzlebeef Jr	8	17.6
Druss Deathwalker	8	22.9
AJ Williams	8	24.4
Brendan Marner	8	25.1
Henri le Massif	7	15.4
Erlantz Jokinen	7	17.3
Anze Miklavz	7	17.4
Zach Kisslinger II	7	18.4
Jan Hlozek	7	25.3
Poopy Peepants	6	15.3
Hari Singh Nalwa	6	17.2
Jonathan Ori	6	17.2
Daniel Janser	6	19.3
Hulk Hogan 2	6	21.2
Asher Reinhart	6	23.3
Taylor Mourning	6	24.5
Cole Pearce	6	33.8
AirRig GoodBrandSun	5	17.0
Baby Bob	5	27.2
David Davis	5	33.8
Brian Payne	4	23.0
Ben Dahl	4	31.0
Bubbles Utonium	4	34.5
David Tavau	3	21.3
Kyle Peace	3	23.3
Matty Fire	3	25.7
Bo Johansson	3	26.7
Nezuko	3	30.3
Tobias Reinhart	3	34.0
Red Gaming	2	22.0
Brendan Telker	2	24.0
Sven Eightnine	2	26.5
Dusty Wilson	2	30.5
That Dude	2	31.5
Sirdsvaldis Miglaskems	1	9.0
Alessandro Nano	1	12.0
Tavish Degroot	1	17.0
The Seabasstard	1	17.0
Nils Godlander	1	17.0
Sigard Petrenko	1	18.0
Leroy Johnson	1	20.0
The Board Game Clue on Skates	1	22.0
Darth Kaprizov	1	22.0
Seymour Butts	1	23.0
Bogdan Trunov	1	24.0
Perry Laperriere	1	25.0
Biggie Cheese	1	26.0
Hammar Voss	1	26.0
Jannik Nylen	1	28.0
Brandt Fuhr	1	29.0
Tomas Sogaard	1	29.0
Corey Kitson	1	30.0
Rhys Trenton	1	31.0
Shane Lazeski	1	32.0
Jason Argos	1	32.0
Wumbo	1	33.0
Igor Molotov	1	34.0
Art Vandelay	1	36.0
Dabnad Shaw	1	36.0

 

After looking at 10 groups, I was able to identify 76 unique players that were selected, which shows a pretty decent spread. There were a few "troll" picks like Leroy Johnson @Vkobe-v, but not enough to merit any disqualifications or fixing of the data. Only 13 players were selected in every group, and 3 of those were goalies. The most interesting of that "elite group" is actually Nico Pearce, who with an ADP of 20.9 was essentially a high 4th round pick. Every other skater in the 10-group club went in at least the early 3rd or higher, which is natural for coveted skaters. Nico bucked that trend, with his highest draft position being 10, and lowest at 28.

 

A lot of the members in the 8-9 group club surprised me, especially Vinny Detroit. There was really a group out there that didn't take one of the most sought after forwards this season who had an ADP of 7.9. Forwards like Druss Deathwalker, AJ Williams, and Brendan Marner seemed to be in the same club as Nico Pearce, averaging in the 20's for ADP, even falling out of 2 groups each. 

 

 

ADP vs VHFL Rank

 

 

Name	# Groups	ADP	VHFL Rank	Difference
Papa Emeritus	10	28.3	6	22.3
Druss Deathwalker	8	22.9	4	18.9
Nico Pearce	10	20.9	3	17.9
Taylor Mourning	6	24.5	8	16.5
Bubbles Utonium	4	34.5	19	15.5
Biggie Cheese	1	26.0	12	14.0
Sven Eightnine	2	26.5	13	13.5
Tui Sova	9	18.3	5	13.3
Brian Payne	4	23.0	10	13.0
Cole Pearce	6	33.8	25	8.8
Henri le Massif	7	15.4	7	8.4
Hard Markinson	10	5.5	2	3.5
Asher Reinhart	6	23.3	21	2.3
Xavier Booberry	10	20.3	18	2.3
Wumbo	1	33.0	31	2.0
Duncan Idaho	10	2.1	1	1.1
Baby Bob	5	27.2	27	0.2
Corey Kitson	1	30.0	30	0.0
Rhys Trenton	1	31.0	32	-1.0
Reylynn Reinhart	10	12.2	14	-1.8
Vasile Lamb	10	8.6	11	-2.4
Hulk Hogan 2	6	21.2	24	-2.8
Art Vandelay	1	36.0	41	-5.0
Anze Miklavz	7	17.4	23	-5.6
Alex Johnston	10	7.5	15	-7.5
Alessandro Nano	1	12.0	20	-8.0
Vinny Detroit	9	7.9	16	-8.1
Erlantz Jokinen	7	17.3	26	-8.7
David Davis	5	33.8	43	-9.2
Dabnad Shaw	1	36.0	46	-10.0
Red Gaming	2	22.0	34	-12.0
Tavish Degroot	1	17.0	29	-12.0
Jan Hlozek	7	25.3	38	-12.7
Aurelien Moreau	8	14.1	28	-13.9
Saku Kotkakoivu	10	3.1	17	-13.9
Poopy Peepants	6	15.3	33	-17.7
Daniel Janser	6	19.3	37	-17.7
Matty Fire	3	25.7	44	-18.3
Oskar Lindbergh	10	30.4	49	-18.6
Max Torq	10	15.5	39	-23.5
Dusty Wilson	2	30.5	54	-23.5
Tobias Reinhart	3	34.0	58	-24.0
Perry Laperriere	1	25.0	51	-26.0
Bo Johansson	3	26.7	53	-26.3
Hari Singh Nalwa	6	17.2	45	-27.8
That Dude	2	31.5	60	-28.5
Nezuko	3	30.3	61	-30.7
Zeedayno Chara	9	10.3	42	-31.7
The Seabasstard	1	17.0	52	-35.0
Rolf Fizzlebeef Jr	8	17.6	55	-37.4
Paul Atreides	10	8.4	47	-38.6
Sigard Petrenko	1	18.0	57	-39.0
AJ Williams	8	24.4	64	-39.6
Brandt Fuhr	1	29.0	69	-40.0
Zach Kisslinger II	7	18.4	63	-44.6
Brendan Marner	8	25.1	70	-44.9
Ben Dahl	4	31.0	79	-48.0
The Board Game Clue on Skates	1	22.0	74	-52.0
Darth Kaprizov	1	22.0	76	-54.0
Jannik Nylen	1	28.0	83	-55.0
Shane Lazeski	1	32.0	90	-58.0
David Tavau	3	21.3	81	-59.7
Brendan Telker	2	24.0	85	-61.0
Tomas Sogaard	1	29.0	91	-62.0
Jerome Reinhart	10	5.7	68	-62.3
Sirdsvaldis Miglaskems	1	9.0	73	-64.0
Hammar Voss	1	26.0	100	-74.0
Nils Godlander	1	17.0	93	-76.0
Igor Molotov	1	34.0	112	-78.0
AirRig GoodBrandSun	5	17.0	97	-80.0
Jonathan Ori	6	17.2	98	-80.8
Kyle Peace	3	23.3	109	-85.7
Jason Argos	1	32.0	129	-97.0
Seymour Butts	1	23.0	122	-99.0
Bogdan Trunov	1	24.0	137	-113.0
Leroy Johnson	1	20.0	181	-161.0

 

Now this is the part that was most interesting to me, actually comparing ADP to player ranks near the end of VHFL. Out of the 76 players on this list, only 19 performed at their ADP level or higher. Papa Emeritus @Beketov receives the crown there landing 22.3 spots higher than his ADP, although goalies seemed to frequent in this list with 5 goalies outperforming their ADP. Druss Deathwalker and Nico Pearce, aforementioned as low ADP forwards, had the 2nd and 3rd highest jumps and gave their owners the most bang for their bucks, seeing 18.9 and 17.9 rank increases in comparison to their ADP's. Deathwalker is currently the #4 overall VHFL player, while Pearce sports the #3 ranking. 

 

Players like Duncan Idaho @OrbitingDeath , Hard Markinson @STZ and Xavier Booberry @CowboyinAmerica solidified why team managers were right to select them as the top players at each of their respective positions, all maintaining or outperforming their ADP. It's tough to determine which top F, D and G will not end up being a net loss in terms of opportunity cost, but those three all held their own and somehow even improved on ADP's of 2.1 for a forward, 5.5 for a defenseman, and 20.3 for a goalie.

 

The biggest losers here absolutely have to be owners of Jerome Reinhart, Brendan Marner, Paul Atreides, Zach Kisslinger II and Jonathan Ori. Reinhart with an ADP of 5.7 and a player expected to rack up the points on NYA for a second straight season has disappointed, with a VHFL ranking of 68 - a massive 62.3 rank drop. Even S83 award winner Paul Atreides with an ADP of 8.4, a second round staple, dropped 38.6 slots down to 47. Just for clarity, any rank below 36 is not even worth rostering, as 6 groups with 6 picks each results in 36 total rostered players. AJ Williams and Brendan Marner also seemed to have high expectations from VHFL managers, but both saw about a drop of 40 points. Jonathan Ori was expected to be a massive difference-maker with his move to cup champion Seattle, as he was selected in 6 groups with an ADP of 17.2. The center has underwhelmed and sports one of the largest drops from 17.2 to 98. Even former Jake Wylde trophy nominee AirRig GoodBrandSun saw a differential of -80 from his ADP of 17 to rank of 97.

 

 

Biggest Surprises

 

(not gonna paste table again)

 

Personally, I give the nod for biggest surprises to Bubbles Utonium @fishy, Biggie Cheese @a_Ferk , Sven Eightnine @BarzalGoat, and Brian Payne @Scurvy. Each of these four were selected in only 4 groups or fewer, and currently rank in the top 20 of all VHFL players. There have been quite a few D.C. Dragons doubters over the seasons, but it seems like their team has finally put together a strong roster across the board with Utonium in the net contending for goalie awards. Cheese has broken out on defense for Riga and is the 12th ranked player, while Payne and Eightnine have both stepped up into the top 15 with little pomp and circumstance in the pre-season. 

 

 

Conclusion/Takeaways

 

Overall, it was just a pretty neat (and time consuming) project to track ADP for the last VHFL draft and check out how players' ADPs have tracked out in comparison to their current VHFL ranking. Maybe this data will assist you to look for trends in the next iteration of VHFL? Maybe you just skipped down to the bottom of this article, or just didn't read this at all. Personally I enjoyed seeing Nico outperform everything and seeing just how many frequently rostered players simply do not give people any value. Out of the 76 unique players selected, 44 were not worth rostering at all. While that generally indicates that a majority of the top 36 were properly selected, it still shows how much variability there is in player selection and difficult there is in identifying who will be a valuable VHFL selection.

 

Word Count: Like 1.2k, 2 weeks

 

Edit: Link to sheet if you want

 

Edit 2: Fixed the ADP and # Groups table to sort the ADP better

Edited July 28, 2022 by Spartan

[Shindigs 1,771]

Goalies being high on the difference makes sense, just with the meta of picking goalies with your 2nd to last or last pick.

 

Something that would be interesting is looking at every group and seeing which group had the most/least "unworthy" players on rosters. As a way to figure out which groups were the most/least competitive.

[a_Ferk 766]

I was very confused why I was pinged in a VHFL article, but it makes sense that it was about my player

[Vkobe-v 169]

2 hours ago, Spartan said:

There were a few "troll" picks like Leroy Johnson @Vkobe-v,

This is not a troll I’m the best 

[BarzalGoat 728]

3 hours ago, Spartan said:

Eightnine have both stepped up into the top 15 with little pomp and circumstance in the pre-season

AKA a reroll lol

[Spartan 4,531]

Claim 2/2