An actual prediction of the S99 VHL Standings and more

[badcolethetitan 1,090]

An actual prediction of the VHL S99 Standings and more

 

We're back with the next seasons edition of predicting the standings. It seems that the last one was all over the place and not the most accurate (because why would it be), so we'll try our best to be more accurate with this one. I think I've got a pretty good grasp on where teams are at, so we should be able to more accurately predict this seasons standings. I'll probably add slightly more stuff as well.

 

 

Trajectory explanation: Essentially where there were finished in the standings last season (S98) compared to where I rank them this season. Example: Chicago finished 8th last season in NA, but was ranked 7th in these rankings, they'd be +1.

 

NA Conference

 

1) Vancouver Wolves (6-3-1)

Star players: Logan Ninefingers, Riley Martin, Bollos de Trueno, Soju

Trajectory: +4

2) New York Americans (6-4-2)

Star players: George Richmond, Phillip Rave, Daniel Janser, Guntis Gavilrovs

Trajectory: +2

3) Calgary Wranglers (6-4-2)

Star players: Phil Sakic, Kimi Raikkonen, Mina, Spider Panda

Trajectory: +0

4) Toronto Legion (5-4-2)

Star players: Konstyantyn Shevchenko, Andrew Skilton

Trajectory: -3

5) D.C. Dragons (6-4-2)

Star players: Thor Reingaard, Pan Daffleck

Trajectory: +1

--

6) Los Angeles Stars (6-3-2)

Star players: Pierre March Bouchard, Roger Eagles

Trajectory: +1

7) Seattle Bears (3-3-1)

Star players: Lazlo Holmes

Trajectory: -5

8: Chicago Phoenix (4-2-1)

Star players: None

Trajectory: +0

 

Description: NA this year will be ultimately pretty boring. For the most part, it's fairly obvious who the top four teams are in VAN, NYA, CGY, and TOR which all should be almost a lock for the playoffs unless the sim decides to hate them. At the bottom, you've got CHI and SEA probably battling it out for last in the conference, as both of these teams are not very good and looking to build for the future. The most exciting part of NA this season is who will get the last wildcard spot between DC and LA. Both these teams bought in the off season and are looking to end their playoff droughts, but only one will be able to end the curse. Between LA and DC, the rosters are fairly similar in skill, with both teams having two stud players that will do lots of the heavy lifting. However, I'm going to give the slight edge to DC as they have a completed lineup, while LA is missing a defenseman. LA should be able to add a D man later on, potentially at the TDL, but that slightly gap in skill could give DC a 5-10 point lead come TDL. Regardless, NA is pretty much going to be the same teams towards the top and I'm expecting the same teams except Seattle to make it to the post-season.

 

Chances to make playoffs:

 

VAN: >99%

NYA: >99%

CGY: >99%

TOR: 95%
DC: 55%

LA: 45%

SEA: <0.1%

CHI: <0.1%

 

 

EU Conference

 

1) HC Davos Dynamo (6-3-2)

Star players: Johnny Tsunami, Antonio Bucatini, Joshuw Schwarzer, Felicia Hardy, Jorgen Lovstrom

Trajectory: +1

2) Malmo Nighthawks (5-4-2)

Star players: Grimgor Ironhide, Gianfranco Del Rocco

Trajectory: +5

3) London United (6-4-2)

Star players: Ahsoka Tano

Trajectory: +2

4) Prague Phantoms (5-4-2)

Star players: Erik Thorvaldsson, Matteo Stefano, Lucy Leitner

Trajectory: +2

5) Moscow Menace (3-4-2)

Star players: Maverick Goncalves, Jillian Woods, River Harrington

Trajectory: -4

--

6) Warsaw Predators (4-3-2)

Star players: None 

Trajectory: +2

7) Helsinki Titans (7-1-1)

Star players: None

Trajectory: -5

8: Riga Reign (2-2-2)

Star players: Wayne Gretzky

Trajectory: -5

 

Description: In EU, we've got an absolute banger season loading. I think the consensus 1st overall team in the league is Davos, as they've got an insanely stacked team and I can see people already writing them in as their early cup favorite. I think there's a very high chance they will be the best team in EU and best team in the league. Heading to the bottom real quick, RIGA, HSK, and WAR are all tanking and most likely will find themselves out of the playoffs. I don't really see a way any of these teams are going to get in, but maybe they can beat out Moscow who doesn't have a complete roster. As long as they can stay close, they could in theory sneak into the playoffs. Regardless, heading back to 2-5 I think you can make a case for any team getting second except maybe Moscow. Malmo had an interesting off-season where they decided to go out and buy, adding younger talent to their roster. They also were able to add two big name free agents to help their cause. Meanwhile, LDN's core is continuing to get better and I have them as top three. Prague is in a weird spot, but with their roster they should be a lock for playoffs. Regardless, EU this season is basically Davos and then everyone else.

 

Chances to make playoffs:

 

DAV: >99%

MAL: 95%

LDN: 95%

PRG: 90%

MOS: 60%

WAR: 30%

HSK: 25%

RIGA: <0.1%

 

League Tier-List:

 

S-Tier (Contenders): HC Davos Dynamo, Vancouver Wolves, New York Americans, Calgary Wranglers

A-Tier (Playoff Team): Toronto Legion, Malmo Nighthawks, London United, Prague Phantoms

B-Tier (Playoff Hopefuls): DC Dragons, Los Angeles Stars, Moscow Menace

C-Tier (Mid): None

D-Tier (Not good): Warsaw Predators, Helsinki Titans

F-Tier (Tanking): Seattle Bears, Chicago Phoenix, Riga Reign

 

Top 5 Skaters:

 

1) Antonia Bucatini

 

Short Description: Bucatini in my eyes will be the best player this season. They have an absolute loaded team with a crazy build and should just steamroll over literally everyone. Depreciation will probably hurt them a fair amount, but regardless they're going all in this season and should be the best player. The only argue is that since their team is so loaded, they might have their points taken away from them, but I still see them dropping around 100 points this season and being in contention for awards.

 

2) Logan Ninefingers

 

Short Description: Another player that is most likely due for some awards this season is Ninefingers. Ninefingers is on a stacked Wolves team, however, he doesn't have a bunch of forwards that will steal points away from him. There's a very high chance he will be the point leader at the end of the season, however, we all know RNG is a thing and he could end up not being first. Regardless, he should be a lock for top five and I think he'll be fairly good for Vancouver.

 

3) Felicia Hardy

Short Description: The first defenseman on this list and of course, it's with Davos. Hardy has been a very serviceable defenseman for Davos over the past few seasons, with around 70-80 points a season. However, I think this season they'll finally drop 80+ and potentially be in some contention for some awards. Although just like Bucatini, there could be too many cooks in the kitchen and their point totals might get slashed because of it. Regardless, I think they'll make it on some ballets for awards.

 

4) Callum Gary Yannick Janser

 

Short Description: Next up we have Janser, a DFD from NYA. Janser won't necessarily put up crazy points, although he's had consistent 70-80 point seasons in his career for the most part. However, I think if anything, he'll be in contention for the best DFD, as he's going to be wracking up hits, and shots blocked with the New York Americans. Probably one of the best pure defenseman in the league, he'll be looking to bolster the New York defense core with Gavilrovs this upcoming season.

 

5) Andrew Skilton

 

Short Description: Another defenseman who I think could bring home some awards is Andrew Skilton. On Toronto, they should be able to rack up a decent amount of points as the main defenseman for the team. They've got a high chance to take home an award this season, especially with their extremely high passing. I think Skilton could be a sleeper pick for most fantasy teams and could be a great player for the Toronto Legion for this upcoming season.

 

Top 3 Goalies:

 

1) Jorgen Lovstrom

 

Short Description: The best goalie this season in my eyes will be Lovstrom. They've already been a top goalie the past few seasons and now put them behind an absolute stacked Davos team, they should be the best goalie. I think possibly RNG could screw them over, but come playoff time, they should be able to shut the door and help Davos win multiple series and potentially the cup. There really isn't much else to say about Davos and Lovstrom as they should be a shoe-in for many awards.

 

2) Soju

 

Short Description: A goalie who could potentially match Lovstrom is Soju. Although Soju didn't have the best season last year, I think that's partly due to the roster construction at the beginning of the year. This season, Soju has a good team and should be able to perform back how they did in S97. I believe that Soju will be one of the better goalies and with his team in front of him, could be a potential award winner.

 

3) Roger Eagles

 

Short Description: Roger Eagles is a sleeper pick on a fairly decent team in NA. If LA is going to make the playoffs, they're going to need Eagles to have a great season and possibly the best of his career. The good news is he's set up to do that, as this is the best roster LA has fielded in a while. However, the only downside is that if he doesn't play 64 games, he could end up being FISTED ANALLY BY A CIRCUS MONKEY for awards as the argument could be the others played more games.

 

Team with biggest "Boom" factor:

 

Moscow Menace: Without a doubt, this is a team that could add at the trade deadline and become the second best team in EU. There is not much firepower in EU right now, besides Davos, and Moscow with adding a couple pieces could immediately shoot up in skill and become a contender. However, that's also assuming teams are going to give up their players to Moscow, when they know that Moscow is in need of players. In theory the GMs could just upcharge Moscow because they need depth and Moscow would most likely just refuse to buy, leaving them mid. The saving grace is that even if they are "mid", this is still a stacked draft and they should be able to pick up a fairly decent player. On the other hand, they could leverage the pick and then end up making their team even better for the season after.

 

Team with biggest "Bust" factor:

 

Toronto Legion: This one was hard to pick, as I feel like there's not many teams that even if they end up not being good, it's not the end all be all as this draft is loaded. However, Toronto doesn't have their first round pick in S100 and should they somehow miss the playoffs, they've now unfortunately just given over a lotto pick. The chances of Toronto missing the playoffs are extremely low, as I don't think LA/DC can both jump them, however, you never know how the sim works. Should Toronto miss the playoffs, it would be a disaster and a massive fall from grace as well. They were the best team in NA last season and lost to NYA in the first round, maybe this time TOR can be the wildcard and knock out the first seed?

 

A look back at the S98 standings and how well did I predict them:

 

NA S98 Standings (first to last): TOR, SEA, CGY, NYA, VAN, DC, LA, CHI 

My prediction of NA S98 Standings (first to last): NYA, TOR, CGY, SEA, DC, LA, VAN, CHI

EU S98 Standings (first to last): MOS, HSK, RIGA, DAV, LDN, PRG, MAL, WAR

My prediction of EU S98 Standings (first to last): DAV, MOS, HSK, RIGA, PRG, LDN, MAL, WAR

Correct predictions: CGY, CHI, MAL, WAR (4/16)

Correct playoff predictions: TOR, SEA, CGY, NYA, MOS, HSK, RIGA, DAV, LDN (9/10)

 

Realistically at the end of the day, they're always going to be predictions and not the actual standings. You can only guess so much as you have no clue what RNG is going to play a factor into the simulation. Calgary, a 3rd seed last season ended up winning the cup against a team (on paper) that was better than them. Wildcards seem to always take down a top seed (RNG does play a factor, but I also think wildcards add to their roster which makes them better than an actual "wildcard" team) even though they're rated 4/5 in the conference. Some random player always pops off despite having worse builds than other people. That's the beauty of a "simulation" league. At the end of the day, you could have a 90% chance to win, but you could strike the 10% chance that you don't. We'll have to see what happens this season, especially with EU as I feel like it's wide open and anyone could find themselves easily in the conference finals. Good luck to every team and the big draft is right around the corner!

 

2000+ words

Edited 16 hours ago by badcolethetitan

[Lemorse7 1,061]

53 minutes ago, badcolethetitan said:

Star players: Wayne Gretzky

did i die tf

[badcolethetitan 1,090]

23 minutes ago, Lemorse7 said:

did i die tf

 

only so much a goalie can do

[Lemorse7 1,061]

3 minutes ago, badcolethetitan said:

 

only so much a goalie can do

watch me

[Frank 5,524]

49 minutes ago, Lemorse7 said:

did i die tf

Worse you became a clicker.

[badcolethetitan 1,090]

43 minutes ago, Lemorse7 said:

watch me

 

if u guys go crazy then u mvp

[AJW 2,418]

If LA doesn’t make the playoffs this season I’m going to shoot myself

[Banackock 8,635]

Seattle >> Chicago for tankathon

[Banackock 8,635]

46 minutes ago, AJW said:

If LA doesn’t make the playoffs this season I’m going to shoot myself

[OrbitingDeath 3,364]

12 hours ago, Lemorse7 said:

did i die tf

in their defense they did say star player, not star panda.