Some cursory TPA analysis

[Enorama 1,980]

Lots of changes this off-season. I'm gonna look at a few different measures of how teams line up. These numbers were run a few days ago, so some of the TPA totals may be slightly out of whack and Past is still listed as a D, but I believe that's the only major difference.

 

First, my favourite metric; the starting 6 TPA. This takes the TPAs of the team's best three forwards, best two defensemen, and best goalie and adds em all together to try and see what they could ice as a power line, if you will.

 

 

You'll notice Vancouver is as superpowered as ever, so I can't wait for them to lose to Seattle in the first round. Calgary and D.C. are neck in neck, so watch for them to battle it out for the final playoff spot in the NA conference. Potentially the most interesting thing here is that someone appears worse than Davos! @Peace is convinced that they will not be last by any stretch, but simply based on this graph, I would be surprised to see them finish anywhere North of 11th. One last thing, Seattle and Riga have the exact same total, but as you'll see later on, they're driven from entirely different places.

 

I've already hit over 200 words, so there's no real reason for me to go on further. Here's the full data table of teams' TPA totals of their best 6/4/1. I assumed 200 TPA for the bots that Davos and Toronto are icing because I didn't want them to be zeroes but I don't know what the actual equivalent TPA is of their builds.

 

Like I referenced earlier, note how Seattle has 100 more TPA in their top F line but Riga has 100 more TPA in their top D line. At the time that I ran these numbers (before Past switched to F), Kastelic accounted for about 47% of Riga's top forward line's TPA. Also, note Calgary's top D pairing; best in the league despite their 6/2/1 sitting in 8th.

 

Team	Top line total	Top 6 F total	Top pair total	Top 4 D total	Starting 5 total	Goaltending	Starting 6 total	Total
VAN	3085	4960	1359	2551	4444	798	5242	8309
SEA	2439	4202	1639	2707	4078	900	4978	7809
RIG	2379	3897	1730	2882	4109	869	4978	7648
MAL	2426	4054	1783	2724	4209	732	4941	7510
MOS	2405	4015	1770	2602	4175	620	4795	7237
HSK	2487	4106	1284	2182	3771	807	4578	7095
NYA	2357	3904	1580	2497	3937	630	4567	7031
CGY	1878	2979	1833	3092	3711	625	4336	6696
DCD	2221	3532	1271	2102	3492	860	4352	6494
PRG	1755	3039	1083	2116	2838	759	3597	5914
TOR	1400	2655	865	1373	2265	425	2690	4453
DAV	1600	2299	961	1521	2561	314	2875	4134

 

Words: too many

[Banackock 7,714]

TPA DoEsNT MaTtEr

[Peace 1,518]

It's not all about TPE! 

Ain't saying Toronto makes the playoffs, but I have confidence we'll be better than Davos. 

[Enorama 1,980]

Just now, Banackock said:

TPA DoEsNT MaTtEr

 

I will agree that TPA isn't everything, but it certainly does matter. You can't tell me that Davos is competing with a second line that's 2/3 bots nor that Vancouver will flounder when their top line has a combined 3085 TPA.

[Banackock 7,714]

7 minutes ago, Enorama said:

 

I will agree that TPA isn't everything, but it certainly does matter. You can't tell me that Davos is competing with a second line that's 2/3 bots nor that Vancouver will flounder when their top line has a combined 3085 TPA.

I just like how people whined when I used very minor TPA comparisons last playoffs and now this big, amazing article comes out showing a much more evolved result than I was. 
 

I agree and love this shit. Thanks for doing it man. 

[Jubis 1,282]

19 minutes ago, Banackock said:

TPA DoEsNT MaTtEr

Only when Seattle faces Calgary

Edited January 20, 2020 by Jubis

[Beketov 8,664]

33 minutes ago, Enorama said:

 

I will agree that TPA isn't everything, but it certainly does matter. You can't tell me that Davos is competing with a second line that's 2/3 bots nor that Vancouver will flounder when their top line has a combined 3085 TPA.

It definitely does matter, but it matters less than people want to admit it does. The difference between a 600 TPA player and a 1000 TPA player is huge on paper but in practice is very minor. Better line chemistry one way or the other can make all the difference. So can a hot goalie. So can taking bad penalties, etc etc etc.

[Victor 10,570]

4 minutes ago, Beketov said:

So can a hot goalie.

Moscow's secret weapon, @Chase Klein

[Mr_Hatter 1,603]

chase chase chase

[Enorama 1,980]

 

I've automated the updating process now, so I can pull that table (updated) whenever I want. I'll be doing some stuff like comparing beginning of season to end of season and the movement from season to season and the like.