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Quik

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Everything posted by Quik

  1. It was more a rudimentary one based off SF/SA against average S%/SV%.
  2. Updated after today's sims. Toronto increased their PDO, while both New York and Helsinki saw drops lol
  3. lmao, right as I posted this article too Solid comeback though, both lines clicking to get 'er done!
  4. Was going to make this a short VHL.com, but it kinda grew, so posting it now since the stats won't really match once todays sims are uploaded A recent(ish) trend in the hockey community is to look at predictors of future performance, rather than actual results that have occurred. Everyone knows that actual results can sometimes have random events that pollute the data. A cheap goal here, a goalie saving a puck they had no business saving there, and a team loses 4-1 in a game they dominated and probably should have won. PDO is one of the most basic predictors of luck, in hockey. It is Team-wide Shooting % + Team-wide Save %. 100.00 is the expected average. Anything higher, and a team is running on a bit of luck, while anything lower, and the team has been unlucky. League average so far this season is 99.93%, so pretty much exactly what you'd expect. For a bit of a primer, last season the average PDO was 99.96, and no team was more than 0.79 away in either direction, which indicates that all teams will regress to the mean, eventually. When looking at individual teams, this season, there are 4 distinct categories you could divvy up the VHL's 9 teams into: Very Lucky / Average / Unlucky / Very Unlucky. We'll start with the teams who have been average, in terms of PDO, and thus playing at about the level they would be expected to play over the course of their whole season. In the order they sit in the standings, they are Vancouver (100.25), Davos (99.86) and Moscow (99.87); all within 0.25 of the 100.00 mark. In broader terms, it means none of these teams are more than a 2-goal differential away from where they would expect to be, and should probably continue to play at their respective paces for the remainder of the season (without accounting for streaks during the season). The next closest group to "average" is the "unlucky" category. These are teams that have below average PDOs, but are still within 1% if league average. These two teams that are slightly under-performing are Riga (99.11) and Calgary (99.04). If both these two teams had been pacing at league average S% and SV%, they would both be expected to have an extra 5 goals in their differential (Riga would be +22, rather than the +17 they currently sit at, for example). Over the course of a 72-game season, you could expect both the Reign and Wranglers to improve a fair amount, as they regress up towards the league average. After the "unlucky" group, the next closest group to "League Average" is the Very Unlucky group. This group contains a pair of teams that are at least 1.35 off the median PDO, and one would expect significant improvement from as the season wears on. They New York (98.64) and Helsinki (98.41). Both teams are currently 11 goals below what their expected goal differential would be, and could be expected to go on winning streaks at any moment. Helsinki, in particular, is one of two teams to have played all 9 of their backup goalie starts, and is probably expected to see some significant upward regression! As for the final, "Very Lucky" group, that includes the two teams currently occupying 1st and 2nd place in the league standings. There is something to be said for talent outplaying PDO, as the theory that better players will perform better is a prevalent one. However, both teams are currently playing more than 2% above league average, and will probably see some downward regression as the season continues. The Seattle Bears, sitting first place in the league, hold a 102.00 PDO, playing to a 17 goal-differential better than their S/SA would indicate. The Legion, meanwhile, currently hold an even more absurd 102.21 PDO, outpacing their expected goal-differential by 18 goals! While the disclaimer that the season still needs to play out, and things could change at any moment, one would expect things to level out as the season wears on. Based on predictors like SF and SA, it is highly likely that the two teams at the top will see a fall back to the pack, perhaps even the middle of it, while Riga should be expected to rise to the top, and New York and Helsinki continue to battle for the final two playoff spots with the likes of Toronto and Vancouver. Current Season PDO (top chart) vs S64 PDO (bottom chart) Looking at that spreadsheet, a positive 'DiffVSxDiff' would mean a team is outperforming their indicators, while the opposite would also be true for a negative 'DiffVSxDiff'.
  5. If that's his Wednesday deal, I shudder to think of what his Toonie Tuesday involves...
  6. You didn't even take the $2, did you?
  7. Go to your local drinking establishment of choice, find drunk dudes, offer them HJs for $2 apiece and then steal their cocaine. Pretty simple formula, really...
  8. They say if you do what you love, you'll never work a day in your life, so...can IRL Gritty really retire from the cocaine and $2 HJs?
  9. @gorlab my react is for the graphic, not the text
  10. I mean, it was more framed as a "If I don't get my way, I'm retiring" conversation than anything else... If you wanted a real discussion, pretending to try and hold me hostage over 6 TPE to prove a point wasn't the way to do it. As it is, the wording is because the First Gen Purchase is the same, and the logic was that members who've been gone for that long would have the choice of either taking their carryover, or getting to "start fresh."
  11. Is it like the random security tests at the airport? I win those every time!
  12. Big game for Canmore and Pepper! Gets us within a point of the 'Muricans
  13. First line connecting to open it, 2nd line continuing to click. Big win in this one!
  14. It's not easily found, but in ACP, you can go into the player page and "Un-Retire" them. Uncheck that box, and change their retirement season back to Draft+8 (the season after their final season - S65 = 73).
  15. 10, less the 4 you never added as carryover, so 6...
  16. Just going to post this link here, for no reason at all... This one, right here
  17. Imagine retiring a player over 10 6 TPE
  18. Hoooo baby, bracket buster with that massive come back Amazing 3rd period by @Romaris and @AndrewWarren13 to carry us in this one!
  19. @Victor can you double check I submitted? Not sure if I hit submit or just closed the window lol
  20. This draft will quite possibly be 3 rounds deep with players breaking the 200 TPE cap. I've said it before, but the @Recruitment Crew has done an incredible job!
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