CowboyinAmerica 2,843 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 (edited) What will the lottery bring? Mock drafts are always interesting, to be sure; in the National Football League, pundits are already speculating who will be the first pick in the draft next April. However, in the VHL, doing a mock draft isn’t exactly as straight forward for one key reason: the lottery. As the Riga Reign could tell you well, the worst team in the league actually has the best chance at getting the second pick in the draft, not the first. The second-worst team is most likely to sit in the third draft selection. The full breakdown of odds is as follows (assuming that if the second-worst team gets the first pick, there’s another lottery for the third and fourth selections, which I’m not entirely sure about): You may notice something odd from this table: Each of the three worst teams are actually more likely to move down than anything else. In fact, the team with the second-worst record actually has a 91.7 percent chance of not picking second, as being in that position would require the worst team to win the lottery, then the second-worst team winning the corresponding lottery for the No. 2 slot. As a result, mock drafts are pointless. That’s why, as we come up to halfway through the S43 season, I want to do something else. Right now, the four lottery teams, from worst to best, are Helsinki, Calgary, Riga and New York. All four own their own pick. I’ve decided to break down how I think the lottery would go in a variety of interesting lottery scenarios, with TPE totals based on Kendrick’s most recent prospect breakdown. Scenario 1: Helsinki wins lottery, Calgary second : LW Edwin Reincarnacion : LW Marcel Faux : D Kekko Hyvarienen : RW Simon Valmont Analysis: I decided to look at this one first because I think this is one of the few scenarios where Hyvarienen may not go second. With the ninth and twelfth selections in the draft, Calgary selected defensemen Michael Clardy and Chuck Goody, and even though Goody initially expressed displeasure with the franchise, both seem to have settled in nicely with the franchise. With Wingate in net, Calgary main target now is young offensive stars, and they need them badly. Could the team need offense badly enough to pass on Hyvarienen? In the end, it may not depend on TPE totals, but rather how strongly new General Manager Austin Gow wants to keep a connection with the team’s past and former GM Jason Glasser. Scenario 2: Helsinki wins lottery, Riga second : LW Edwin Reincarnacion : LW Marcel Faux : D Kekko Hyvarienen : RW Simon Valmont Analysis: If either Helsinki or New York win the second selection in the draft, I think Hyvarienen is as good as gone. However, if Riga wins the selection, then things could get interesting quickly. Hyvarienen is perhaps the selection that makes the most sense personnel wise, as MC Hammer is the only young defenseman in the system, and the team would like more protection in front of rookie goalie Bernie Gow. There is a case, though, for taking Faux and waiting until later to take someone like Supa Hot Fire with one of the team’s other picks. Faux’s brother, Bronson Faux, is already on the team, likely for the long-term. As the 30’s Quebec team showed (and the 30’s Seattle team failed to show), having brothers on the same team could be a strong impetus to keeping practice activity high. Plus, it never hurts to build a core around two strong offensive threats. Scenario 3: New York wins lottery : D Kekko Hyvarienen : LW Edwin Reincarnacion : LW Marcel Faux : RW Simon Valmont Analysis: Is there a scenario where Edwin Reincarnacion is not the first pick? I think it could very well happen if the Americans end up with the No. 1 pick for the second straight season. New York has a number of younger offensive prospects, including last year’s first overall pick E’Twaun Delicious, fellow Season 43 pick Jorma Ruutu, Season 41 studs Nicolas Caprivi and Mario De Rossi, and center Benjamin Dupont waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, on defense, the team has Golden Jedtsson in the VHLM and… that’s about it. Especially given the past relationship between New York GM Chris Miller and Hyvarienen’s agent, I would be surprised if Hyvarienen did not go first. (I could also see New York shopping the pick to a team looking to take Reincarnacion.) Edited May 16, 2015 by CowboyinAmerica Sixersfan594 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kesler 1,514 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Plzzzzz Helsinki win. Also the Faux brothers gotta be together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,837 Posted May 16, 2015 Admin Share Posted May 16, 2015 Simon Valmount is the best player here tbh. P.S. There is indeed a third lottery if worst and second-worst win the first two. Ahma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Higgins 3,618 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Ethan Osborne Simon Valmount STZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahma 1,387 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 (edited) Ethan Osborne Simon Valmount Let me ask... who is this Ethan Osborne I've been hearing alot? Edited May 16, 2015 by Ahma STZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Higgins 3,618 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Let me ask... who is this Ethan Osborne I've been hearing alot? Since you asked... http://www.vhlforum.com/index.php?/topic/624-s30-vhl-entry-draft/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kesler 1,514 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Osborn quite possibly the worst first gen ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesfan036 4,593 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Nice article but why is there no scenario with calgary winning STZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire Tortorella 2,653 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Nice article but why is there no scenario with calgary winning Because :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STZ 5,339 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Let me ask... who is this Ethan Osborne I've been hearing alot? sup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sixersfan594 247 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 No Le'Sean Coutzen no party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kesler 1,514 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 No Le'Sean Coutzen no party drop to 11 plzzzzz Sixersfan594 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munk 1,298 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Let me ask... who is this Ethan Osborne I've been hearing alot? FOR JASUN NotAVHLM-GM and diamond_ace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kylrad 178 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Content 3/3 Good article, the lottery is always interesting Grammar 2/2 Nothing to find Appearance 1/1 Looks good Overall 6/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond_ace 3,107 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 I assume you copied the spelling from Kendrick, since you both spelled it the same wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachReilly 688 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Claimed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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