Good vs Lucky - A look at S69 so far

[studentized 166]

I usually do things like this as a media spot, but I really don't feel like writing 500 words along with it. Hope this is good 'nuff as a graphic (Edit: it doesn't look like it will get approved. It's a media spot now)

 

To measure "good", I used Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and to measure "lucky" I used PDO. When calculating both of these stats, all strengths were used (not just 5v5). This is not really the way they're normally presented (and not the way I wanted) but you can only do so much with sim league stats sometimes. RIP New York

 

 

 

 

Ok so this doesn't look like it's going to be accepted as a graphic, so I'm going to write some more words and claim as a media spot instead.

 

Things we can read off of this chart:

 

1) The season should get better for New York. Possession numbers are average but they are by far the worst team at translating possession into more goals for/fewer goals against. They should bounce back some, but its going to be hard to overcome the hole they're in.

 

2) Davos sucks. They suck so bad that the scale on the chart is so extreme that it really fails to emphasize how good Vancouver and Moscow are visually. Looking at NHL stats last year, a 53% CF% or higher would place you top 5 in the league. Vancouver and Moscow are both in that range. I'm not sure if there has ever been a possession team as bad as Davos, but it is still early and things can change (but hopefully not so we can see this tire fire continue)

 

3) Expansion teams are competitive. Yes DC is getting some luck and may fall off a bit, but they are holding their own for the most part. Prague is actually doing well in terms of possession (in part due to playing Davos a bunch) but is on the end of some minor bad luck. I still maintain that neither expansion team will make the playoffs this year, but it seems like significant progress was made vs S68.

 

4) Malmo is hurting without Thompson. Many pinged the signing of Jake Davis to mitigate the loss by a lot and for Malmo to have another season atop the EU. I didn't follow their off season too much outside of this, so there might be another explanation, but it looks like Thompson was the difference between average and finals bound, at least it looks that way now, at this early part of the season.

 

Next steps:

 

I really want to look at even strength numbers vs all strengths. I don't think this will be too hard, but it requires parsing what lineup is on the ice (power play, penalty kill, normal, etc.) with every shot attempt/goal scored. A bonus to this is it means I can get Corsi and PDO at the player level, something I've wanted to do for a while.

 

Spent a good hunk of time making it so this kind of thing should be easy to generate in the future, so I will probably keep posting them occasionally (for no TPE) at other points throughout the season.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by studentized

[gorlab 4,321]

poor NYA 

[ThePerfectNut 563]

Ahahaha NY. What happened ouf

[ColeMrtz 574]

Davos pushing for VHLM status

[Steve 1,920]

12 hours ago, Jtv123 said:

Ahahaha NY. What happened ouf

Still hungover from the big ass party we threw when you left. 

[Bushito 1,945]

My team is bad but at least we are lucky and can put together a 5 game win streak

[Nykonax 1,564]

is davos... playing hockey?

[ThePerfectNut 563]

2 hours ago, Steve said:

Still hungover from the big ass party we threw when you left. 

Hmmm I guess that would be the case mister top 3 d-men

[Steve 1,920]

2 hours ago, Bushito said:

My team is bad but at least we are lucky and can put together a 5 game win streak

We have a longer streak going, don't jinx us................

[Bushito 1,945]

5 minutes ago, Steve said:

We have a longer streak going, don't jinx us................

5 is the longest streak

[Steve 1,920]

27 minutes ago, Bushito said:

5 is the longest streak

I beg to differ, we haven't won in 9.......