Who's Here to Stay? S67/68 Expansion Edition

[Renomitsu 934]

For the first time in a little while, we're finishing the regular season with three teams from a single conference entering the playoffs with the greatest number of points in the standings - and based on last season and Davos's promise, we might've expected an all-Europe top three. But we got the reverse, with Toronto systematically picking apart every team they faced for an (arguable) league-best offense and defense.

 

With some wondering whether @Devise could pull off the impossible for what seems like the fifth straight season, he's managed to make do and become the bar-none top contender for the finals. Through brilliant Free Agent signings and carefully-calculated deals using every pick and non-elite player available to him, he's gnawed away a 25+ point standings lead over the second-through-sixth best teams in the league. While @Victor has already given a brilliant and succinct analysis on potential expansion draft effects, that's really not my style. But to be frank, he's already covered the details comprehensively in his article this week, so perhaps we can give a second perspective. I'll do this in a three-point style: let's look at one player that's (basically) certain to be protected, one that's likely but not guaranteed for protection, and one borderline asset for each of our ten teams this season, as well as the last player's impact on the team's future. For my sake we're also going to look at only four teams in relatively different spots: Toronto, Moscow, Vancouver, and Malmö.

 

Since rosters are even deeper than they were during our last two expansions, we're going to assume that 9 picks + a GM player are going to be protected. I don't have guaranteed inside information on this - I think anywhere from 7-10 players + GM player could be protected - so we'll take a nice little average of them all.

 

Toronto Legion

 

• Sticking With the Team - C Rylan Peace. Honestly, the Legion have their protection picks largely selected for them (e.g. Sullivan Jr., Tzuyu, Roctrion King), as they technically only have 7 players under contract next season, including GM goalie J.B. Rift. But @Peace is under contract the longest (another 4 seasons until he retires), his contract is very favorable for the Legion at $1m/yr after this season, and he's only in the fifth season of his career while over 900 TPE.
• Probably Being Protected - N/A. As said above, the Legion have all players they want locked up through whatever number of protections teams are permitted this season. Devise can choose if he wants to expose a journeyman depth player with significant regression like defenseman Cayden Smith or winger Joey Boucher, but with his draft pick allergy that seems unlikely.
• In the Hot Seat - S70 3rd Round Draft Pick. Does this count? Just like Victor pointed out, the Legion can just hand over this pick, and the Legion GM would probably trade it away anyways. I doubt he values this unknown pick three seasons from now more highly than either of the players mentioned above.
• Overall Impact - Virtually None. I don't think I need to belabor the point anymore. Devise will keep on trucking, and he's just a few free agent signings/pick trades from continuing to have a top contender. He'll make it work.

 

Moscow Menace

 

• Continuing to Be A Menace - LW Randoms. Yes, I think there are some other guaranteed picks (there's no way Victor lets C Jet Jaguar @gorlab go, for example). But Randoms @hedgehog337, like Toronto's Peace, is locked in through retirement and has a pretty good amount of TPE (>750) for a S63 prospect. He'll continue to man the top lines and powerplay for the foreseeable future. I also could have gone with Cast, but that's a little bit of a cop-out provide he's the GM player. We'll try to avoid that this article.
• Finding the Expansion A Menace - LW Mat Tocco. I think Tocco still finds himself in the 'protect' side of expansion. The Menace's top dozen or so players are valuable - which shouldn't be a surprise provided their success this season - and so for a 450+ TPE second-year player to be within spitting distance of the expansion block is an absurdity. But he falls somewhere in the single digits for protection priority contingent on who gets re-signed, so he should be safe.
• A Possible Massive Loss - D Edward Vigneault? This young defenseman is one of those picks you take a look at and wonder if this would've been possible several seasons ago. He's updated within the last week - at least +11 TPE, in fact - he's young (S66), selected in the top third or so of his draft (#33), and claims just about every week. If he he finds himself unprotected, he'd be a high-priority pick and building block for the future expansion franchises. At 335 TPE he finds himself on the less favorable side of Moscow's protection list; regardless of where he goes he has a promising future.
• Overall Impact -  Finances vs. Prospects. Victor's already expressed his mixed feelings about having a player go to an expansion team in his own article. The Menace currently have over a dozen players under contract for next season, and with the number of high-earning players they currently possess, plus contract years for major pieces like Jet Jaguar and Owen May they'll probably see their cap strained more and more. Thankfully, Randoms' and Cast's cap hit both go down next season, but there will be plenty of hungry young players who'll want a re-up on their contract provided this season's success with Moscow.

 

Vancouver Wolves

 

• Part of the Pack - LW Julius Freeman. After Beau Louth's retirement announcement, I thought Vancouver might be in a little trouble since I somehow regarded them as the sixth best team in the league with pre-season rankings when he was around. That was wrong. Vancouver has eight skaters at ~500 or more TPE, and they're all S64 or later. Julius Freeman @rjfryman is the top earner in what might be a legendary three-year set of draftees for the VHL, and while he's only technically signed through S68, it doesn't take a scouting center publisher to see what Vancouver has going on here
• Maybe a Little Skittish, Part I - C Hans Gruber. Heavily under-drafted at the time of the S66 draft, Gruber now finds himself at the cusp of 500 TPE. But the Wolves, with Palo on for another season, Gritty at slightly higher TPE, and Micheal Gary Scott already over 400 TPE, Gruber may find himself caught in the crossfire of expansion. I think Gruber would be an immediate, obvious first-line starter for any expansion team, and like Moscow's Mat Tocco, he could find himself protected if Beaviss chooses to shift his vision for the team just a bit more towards the future.
• Maybe A Little Skittish, Part II - D Codrick Past. As was the case with Tocco and Gruber, Past is one of the players in this league that is young, promising, and active. As a matter of fact, he's basically the defender version of Tocco in terms of value, and it's equally crazy that he's even in the debate for expansion pick.
• Overall Impact - Everyone Wins, Sort Of? 5-10 seasons ago, losing a young 400-500 TPE player might as well be a nail in the coffin for most teams. But Vancouver's team is young and talented; they'll invariably be giving up one of those young and talented players while finding a way to continue to field an exceptional team. Meanwhile, the player that gets drafted becomes a clear and obvious leader for a new expansion team.

 

Malmö Nighthawks

 

• Has the Advantage - RW Matthew Materazo @Matt_O. Season 64 draftee, TPE leader of the team by a solid 150, goals leader, best shooter, 6 game-winning goals, signed with a No-Trade Clause for another two seasons after this? Yeah, sign me up. He's the surest protection pick I can conceive of, especially for a relatively new expansion team like Malmö. Other good picks include Jerry Garcia @GustavMattias and Rusty Shackleford @K1NG LINUS, who also happen to be members I love to tag.
• Still Feeling Good - RW Jack Lynch. He might be an S65 player, but somehow he's one of the older heads on the Nighthawks. He's solidly in the top 5 for the Nighthawk's TPE and has one of their better plus-minuses for this regular season. He's active and a high pick (16th overall), but he also hasn't updated in a few weeks. This plus his slightly larger contract make him a borderline expansion selection, but he'll likely still be protected because of his raw TPE value.
• Point of Debate - LW Blake Gaudette. Yes, I'm going to list wings for all 3 of these Nighthawk entries, mostly because Victor already mentioned Moose as a valuable potential loss. After having most recently updated on July 21st, it's questionable if Gaudette will continue to update his player. He's a 298 TPA sniper and is a touch expensive for his point-earning potential, but he's also somewhere between twelfth and thirteenth for TPE on his team. I suspect Advantage will take some high-TPE defensemen in this draft if he can afford to, and probably have to let go of current third-year player Basaraba Moose in the process as Victor's already written, but Gaudette is another possibility.
• Overall Impact - Low, but Malmö might need defensemen. As I was saying above regarding Basaraba Moose, the Nighthawks can currently field exactly two lines of D-men, one of which is legendary checking defenseman MORPHEUS DESTRUCTIOUS. But if these neon-green avians want to change things up and draft a D or two, nobody would begrudge them for it. Probably.

[Victor 10,946]

That is a lot of references to my article I didn’t even like writing that much.

 

I should note that Pavlov is the GM player, not Cast, and I did toy with the idea of letting him go and see if one of the expansion teams takes him for the trade value. Probably won’t risk it though haha.

 

Tocco isn’t going anywhere though, @Matmenzinger is an absolute steal.

[Renomitsu 934]

3 minutes ago, Victor said:

That is a lot of references to my article I didn’t even like writing that much.

 

I should note that Pavlov is the GM player, not Cast, and I did toy with the idea of letting him go and see if one of the expansion teams takes him for the trade value. Probably won’t risk it though haha.

 

Tocco isn’t going anywhere though, @Matmenzinger is an absolute steal.

 

That's okay! It gave me a great point of reference to jump off from. Good to know that Pavlov is the GM player; I just (mistakenly) assumed the higher-TPE player of the two for GMs before I got here was the GM player, so my bad on that mistake.

 

And yeah, Mat is on the protect side of expansion. I just started going down the list for most teams and was pretty surprised to see the names that could be eligible from one perspective or another. A 400+ TPE player on their rookie contract even facing the threat of being taken in expansion would have been unheard of back when I had Hiro Renomitsu.

[Peace 1,534]

Good write up, but as for my contract that’ll be bumped up to league minimum during the off season.