In/Out: Evaluating active players HOF chances

[DMaximus 1,046]

I ran some quick numbers to learn what it takes to become a VHL Hall of Fame player. The average HOF player has 727 points, with a standard deviation of 120. That means a player has a good chance of joining the HOF if they get to 600 career points. To reach that mark, a player needs to average 75 points per season over the course of their 8-year career. For defensemen, the bar is a little bit lower. HOF defensemen have an average point total of 617 with a standard deviation of 87, making 530 career points, an average of 67 points per season, the likely bar to get into the HOF for them.

For this article, I’m going to evaluate all active players who have had an 85+ point season and state if I think they are going to make it into the Hall of Fame.

 

Julian Borwinn @Jubo07 Prediction: Definite Hall of Famer

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Julian Borwinn	570	321	373	694	132	3181	513	1156	248	55	80	9

 

This one is a pretty straight forward one to predict. Borwinn is definitely making it into the hall. The Halifax hero had a fantastic career winning many personal awards including an MVP in his fantastic Season 66 which included a Continental Cup.

 

Jet Jaguar @gorlab Prediction: Lick

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Jet Jaguar	354	155	241	396	82	1520	143	123	103	16	45	5

 

I gave Jaguar the lick rating, predicting he’ll make it into the hall. He’s currently 200 points shy of the 600 point bar with 3 seasons to go. Based upon his current rate of 1.11 points/game, I’ll guess he ends up in the 650 area when it’s all said and done, more than enough to get him in. It’s looking like he’ll win some personal hardware this season which always helps, but a cup would really pad his resume.

 

Hunter Hearst Helmsley @Beaviss Prediction: Loses the belt

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Hunter Hearst Helmsley	353	150	184	334	68	1585	412	802	128	29	35	4

 

Since day 1, HHH has been predicted to be in the Hall. Unfortunately, I Just don’t see how he gets in. Here’s a fact, there is not a single HOF forward who had a career average below 1 point/game.   And just getting a point a game is 576 points, below the 600 point bar. HHH needs to average 81 points per season to just make it to a point a game, and average 89 points per season to get to 600 career points. He’s only broken the 75 point barrier once in his career. I think the only way he has a chance to get in is to go on an absolute tear over the next 3 seasons, winning multiple MVPs and Continental Cups.

 

Ryan Kastelic @Enorama Prediction: Just misses

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Ryan Kastelic	569	169	443	612	92	2005	612	1142	701	39	66	1

 

It will be really interesting to see how HOF voters end up evaluating Kastelic. He broke the 600 point bar, and did get a cup in his rookie season, but has not won any other awards. Is a solid, consistent career without any standout performance or recognition hall worthy? I’m not so sure.

 

 

Kronos Bailey @Quik Prediction: Sadly, no.

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Kronos Bailey	498	197	307	504	147	2288	698	1055	188	34	39	6

 

There’s not a whole lot to talk about here outside of being sad at Quik’s abrupt departure from the league. In another universe, Bailey is well on his way to completing his HOF career.

 

 

Julius Freeman @rjfryman Prediction: Hidden in the shadow

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Julius Freeman	354	157	184	341	75	1729	109	282	99	29	31	2

 

It feels like Freeman and HHH’s careers are intertwined. I think that will be the case for the HOF as well. With both players likely falling just outside of the standard HOF entrance parameters it’s even less likely either of them make it in, because how could you take one but not the other? And how could you let both in with such marginal resumes? The same caveat I wrote for HHH applies to Julius as well, tear it up these last 3 seasons and make a convincing argument to put both of you in. I just don’t see that happening.

 

Tzuyu @tfong Prediction: A whisker away

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Tzuyu	570	142	399	541	167	1621	311	462	1077	23	63	1

 

This is a really tough call. Tzuyu’s numbers are similar to Kastelic in the fact they’re both just over the bar for their position. Tzuyu has one more cup and a personal award over Kastelic. Maybe that means he’s in? The main thing holding me back from a yes is how poor Tzuyu’s final 2 seasons have been.

 

 

Ryan Sullivan Jr @Advantage Prediction: No chance

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Ryan Sullivan Jr	498	114	309	423	76	1291	791	1245	595	22	43	1

 

A position switch to forward in S68 led to a 103 point season on the expansion Malmo team. That’s the only reason he’s on the list. One great season does not get you into the hall. Still being part of Malmo’s great run to the finals in S68 will mean he never has to pay for a drink in Malmo again.

 

Randoms @hedgehog337 Prediction: No

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Randoms	498	224	244	468	87	2416	934	1823	203	44	49	5

 

Randoms has really flourished in his time with Moscow, unfortunately one of his 8 seasons was in the VHLM and he struggled to put together strong seasons until joining Moscow in S67. His numbers are far too low. He’s got a chance at securing a 2^nd Boulet for top two way forward and will definitely be remembered in Moscow if they’re able to snag a cup in this, his final season.

 

Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen @flyersfan1453 Prediction: Werberyesofcoursehesinjenseman

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen	426	99	305	404	127	983	788	1179	746	9	49	3

 

With 2 seasons left Smitty needs to average around 63 points per season to reach the defenseman HOF bar of 540 points. His worst season in the last 4 was 63 points. He’ll likely charge past that bar and land somewhere in the 550-560 range for career points. If that wasn’t enough, he’s collecting personal hardware like crazy and is clearly the best defenseman for multiple consecutive seasons. If he had a cup or two, it would be a perfect HOF resume. But even without a cup, he’s in.

 

1,188 words. Will claim for two weeks and use for theme week.

[Enorama 2,038]

3 minutes ago, DMaximus said:

Ryan Kastelic @Enorama Prediction: Just misses

Player	GP	G	A	P	+/-	SHT	PIM	HIT	SB	GW	PPG	SHG
Ryan Kastelic	569	169	443	612	92	2005	612	1142	701	39	66	1

 

It will be really interesting to see how HOF voters end up evaluating Kastelic. He broke the 600 point bar, and did get a cup in his rookie season, but has not won any other awards. Is a solid, consistent career without any standout performance or recognition hall worthy? I’m not so sure.

 

Does it make a difference that half the career was spent as a defenseman?  

[DMaximus 1,046]

Just now, Enorama said:

 

Does it make a difference that half the career was spent as a defenseman?  

 

Ah crap, I missed that. Should have stayed one and you'd be a shoe in! That makes the decision much more difficult! I'd probably lean toward a yes then, but still really, really close.

[Corco 1,237]

Did somebody else use my stats spreadsheet?? 

[DMaximus 1,046]

2 hours ago, Corco said:

Did somebody else use my stats spreadsheet?? 

 

Here's what I used 
VHL All-Time Stats -  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U3I1r37v31YCPR93x6JovKUaKaW8yVUY9VLpXkVPsHA/edit#gid=2060179628
VHL Complete Stats (S18-S69) - Skaters - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1m-Okrdf99pOASXM7RiD-1p66DuEXgzcTxRuoUgQgw/edit#gid=0

All-Time Defencemen Stats - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gCAmcJIqYzrkq8CrpRauI9DmmJAbdm9xC6aAzpEUAgw/edit#gid=0

 

Here's some love for the goalies

https://vhlforum.com/topic/78039-inout-evaluating-active-goalie-hof-chances/

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by DMaximus

[Corco 1,237]

5 minutes ago, DMaximus said:

 

Here's what I used 
VHL All-Time Stats -  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U3I1r37v31YCPR93x6JovKUaKaW8yVUY9VLpXkVPsHA/edit#gid=2060179628
VHL Complete Stats (S18-S69) - Skaters - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1m-Okrdf99pOASXM7RiD-1p66DuEXgzcTxRuoUgQgw/edit#gid=0

All-Time Defencemen Stats - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gCAmcJIqYzrkq8CrpRauI9DmmJAbdm9xC6aAzpEUAgw/edit#gid=0

 

I forgot to apologize to goalies in my original post. Sorry I didn't include you, this was enough work!

As long as it’s getting used I’m happy!

[Baozi 1,658]

3 hours ago, DMaximus said:

 

Ah crap, I missed that. Should have stayed one and you'd be a shoe in! That makes the decision much more difficult! I'd probably lean toward a yes then, but still really, really close.

 

His numbers went up when he went to forward though

 

Meanwhile i turned into a defensive steamroller in this final season.

[Enorama 2,038]

4 minutes ago, tfong said:

 

His numbers went up when he went to forward though

 

Meanwhile i turned into a defensive steamroller in this final season.

 

I might actually retire with more D points than F points just because of how hard my penultimate season sucked.

[DMaximus 1,046]

2nd week claim