Hindsight: A Study of the VHL Draft — Safe Pick or Late Riser?

[Patrik Tallinder 1,087]

 

Hello everyone, and welcome to Hindsight! The VHL Entry Draft is approaching yet again, and numerous high-end prospects are eagerly waiting to hear their name called by one of the league’s sixteen franchises on draft day. Some prospects that you don’t think much of now will emerge as quality players in the future, and other more highly touted prospects won’t become quite the star you hoped for. But that’s the beauty of this process; no one really knows. You just have to take in as much information as you can, and hope to make the best educated guess that you possibly can on the draft floor. Today, we take a look at some of that information.

 

The early stages of the first round consist of players who are unanimously considered the cream of the crop. Sometimes a surprise pick will occur if a team really believes in a certain player, but generally the early first round contains a group that comprises low risk, high upside players. By the time you reach the end of the first round, the waters start to get a bit murkier. At this point, a question may arise among the GMs picking around that time.

 

 

“Do I take the safe pick, or the late riser?”

 

 

The safe pick around this point is a recreate who regularly earns between 6 and 12 TPE every week. They may not appear to have superstar potential, but it is almost guaranteed that they are an important part of your team moving forward. Four examples that we will be evaluating are:

• Xavier LeFlamant @BarzalGoat

• Zamboni Driver @Tape-to-Tape

• Dan Baillie Jr @wcats

• The Terrible Trivium @der meister

In this article, we will take a look at how these players have performed after being drafted. 

 

The other side of the coin is the late risers. These first gen players are the definition of high risk, high reward. With such a small sample size of immense success, it is difficult to gauge their long term value. However, you can quite possibly strike gold with one of them. Let’s see how they’ve worked out in the S70’s so far with the following players:

 

• Justin Graves @JDGraves

• Vin Calia @VinCal

• Joseph Gainer @joeg

• Kevin King @IamMOOSE

 

I am essentially generalizing two groups of players here, but we must remember that every case is different. Just because a player in a future draft is a late riser or safe pick, that doesn’t mean that this article can predict what kind of player they will become. WIthout further ado, let’s get started on a background check for each of these players.

 

 

(S71) Xavier LeFlamant - DC Dragons (SAFE PICK)

Our first safe pick is S71 2nd rounder, Xavier LeFlamant. Prior to his 20th overall selection, LeFlamant earned an average of 8.58 TPE per week, never dipping below 6 in any given week. He had model consistency in earning TPE, and some decent VHLM stats. He was coming off of a solid career with Dan Montgomery, for whom he had earned 715 TPE. This was a player who was destined to be a quality player in the VHL from the get-go.

 

Following the draft, LeFlamant would go on to climb the S71 TPE rankings all the way up to his current 12th place. He has been exactly what DC drafted him to be, still earning TPE as consistently as ever with an average of 12.08 TPE per week since the draft. As far as his playing career, he has been quite a solid contributor for the Dragons. His first two seasons were relatively quiet, but S74 marked the scoring winger’s breakout season. He posted 31 goals and 75 points, which was more than both of his other seasons combined. This season, LeFlamant is on pace to break those records yet again.
 

(S72) Zamboni Driver - Helsinki Titans (SAFE PICK)

Looking back on the S72 Draft, Helsinki had an unbelievable night. When you’re able to land Valtteri Vaakanainen, Spencer Elsby, James Rose and Zamboni Driver, you have drafted almost perfectly. Let’s take a look at their starting goalie though, who is fresh off of a jaw-dropping MVP performance at the World Cup last offseason. 

 

Zamboni Driver never earned below 8 TPE in any week before the draft, with an average TPE per week of 10.36. Tape-to-Tape had just earned 843 TPE with Joey Boucher, a S65 Continental Cup champion. In a draft with some impressive first gens, Driver found himself in the backseat a bit, only going 20th overall. Since then, he has become an absolute beast, both on and off the ice.

 

Nowadays, the Icelandic goaltender caps out regularly, and has turned into a bonafide VHL starter for the Titans. He has averaged 17.6 TPE per week since the draft, which is a remarkable step up. As mentioned earlier, he also just came away from the World Cup with tournament MVP, just weeks after playing lights out in the playoffs for a Helsinki team that reached the finals. This season, he is continuing on this stretch of greatness with a .920 save percentage. 

 

Zamboni Driver is a case of a safe pick turning into one of those “why didn’t I pick him?”  headscratchers. He went from a solid goalie prospect to one of the VHL’s elite young goalies, and he has a bright future ahead of him as well.

 

(S73) Dan Baillie Jr - Prague Phantoms (SAFE PICK)

User wcats decided to follow up the extremely successful career of Dan Baillie with Dan Baillie Jr. The original Baillie was a winner at the VHL and VHLM level, and was an important player on some championship teams. He finished his career with a total of 958 TPE.

 

Dan Baillie Jr would be considered a very safe pick because of said success, along with his 11.23 average TPE per week before the draft. Like Driver, he never fell below 8 TPE in any week. This was a pick that guaranteed your team a quality contributor on the wing, yet he was only picked at the 21st slot on draft night.

 

Since the draft, Baillie Jr has kept up his steady TPE earning, and he has had an impressive start to his young career in Prague. I asked GM @diamond_ace what he has meant to the team, and here is what he said:

 

"Baillie has been a great asset to Prague. Consider that he was taken 6 picks after Andre Lebastard, one of the usual run of first gen boom or bust types, who has definitely busted. Baillie was bust proof. That's the best part of the safe picks, they are safe, it's right in the term. The first Baillie was a key part of Moscow's best era and first cup - the second Baillie has a chance to do the same for us."

 

Clearly this is a player that is making an impact, and has provided exactly what Prague was hoping for when they selected him.
 

(S73) The Terrible Trivium - London United (SAFE PICK)

Another safe pick from the S73 Draft, The Terrible Trivium heard London call his name at 31. He was a member with multiple elite players before this one, and even 214 TPE to his name by draft time. Teams found themselves swinging for higher upside picks, but they did not realize that the upside that they were looking for resided in the safer pick. The young winger now sits at 17th in TPE in the S73 draft class.

 

Why was Trivium not considered a high upside pick? Well, his 10.08 TPE per week before the draft was not eye popping, but it was certainly not weak. To be honest, I’m not exactly sure why he fell to 31. Understandably, neither did Trivium. He posted a media spot titled “Angry and Motivated,” and he proved to be quite motivated indeed. 

 

Just a mere two and a half seasons later, The Terrible Trivium has amassed 95 goals and 186 points in just 195 games. He has averaged 15.71 TPE per week since he was drafted, and is an exceptional player on the ice. It’s safe to say that he was a fantastic pickup at 31.
 

 

Now, let’s take a look at some of the late risers and where they are now.

 

 

(S70) Justin Graves - Toronto Legion (LATE RISER)

Justin Graves joined in the last week of S70 eligibility, and wasted absolutely no time making a name for himself. Graves would average 19.67 TPE per week in his six weeks prior to draft day, and be rewarded with a 10th overall selection. Unfortunately, he would not become the player that Toronto had hoped for. He followed up his draft selection with a week of 20 TPE, and then a sudden dip to 2 TPE the next week was the last we saw of him. Toronto GM Peace has mentioned that Graves had some more important things going on in his personal life that caused him to go inactive, which is unfortunate when you consider the promise that he showed in his time here. Despite this, it’s pretty easy to conclude that Graves was a bust.

 

 

(S71) Vin Calia - HC Davos Dynamo (LATE RISER)

Drafted by Davos but then traded to Moscow, center Vin Calia was a player who skyrocketed up the draft rankings after an impressive first four weeks. He had the lowest TPE among all 2nd round picks in S71, but Davos took a chance on him because of the higher upside that he brought to the table.

 

This pick would pay off very nicely, with Calia now having the 11th most TPE in his draft class. Calia has averaged 15.28 TPE per week since the draft, and has put together a pretty nice career for himself so far. S75 could mark the first time he eclipses the point-per-game mark, with 57 points in his first 53 games this season. The young American has a balanced build that really seems to be working, and his numbers are good across the board as a result. This was definitely a great pickup at 16.
 

(S72) Joseph Gainer - Toronto Legion (LATE RISER)

The S72 Draft was one that included many promising first gen players, such as the VHL’s current top two point scorers Timothy Brown and Andrew Su. In the midst of all this, an extremely exciting late joiner may have fallen under the radar a bit. That player was Joseph Gainer, who was averaging an impressive 16.57 TPE per week prior to the draft. 

 

After his 22nd overall selection, Gainer would continue on his trajectory to stardom, and he looked to be one of the league’s better prospects at the time. Alas, that spark would fizzle out, with the Canadian winger going inactive 12 weeks after the S72 Entry Draft. Although this is a disappointing end, he has had considerable success with Toronto so far in his career, so positives can certainly be taken away from this pick. 
 

(S73) Kevin King - Vancouver Wolves (LATE RISER)

Now, we move on to our biggest success story of all these late risers. User IamMOOSE is a well-known figure around the VHL, and his player is an up-and-coming superstar. The S74 Continental Cup champion joined in the last week of S73 eligibility, and took the league by storm with 46 TPE in his very first week. After that, he would miss just 1 capped TPE ahead of the draft, proving his consistency and dedication to becoming a top tier player. Vancouver saw his astounding potential, and took a swing on him in the early 2nd round, 19th overall.

 

He has since climbed from the 25th highest TPE player in the draft, all the way to the 9th. He has averaged 19.9 TPE per week since he was chosen by the Wolves, and already has a cup victory to his name. King is exactly what you hope for — and more — when you draft a late riser. Here is what Vancouver GM @Beaviss had to say about drafting him:

 

“Kevin King has been one of the most surprising players I’ve gotten in the draft. I expected him to be a mediocre 2nd line forward for his career but shortly after I drafted him he proved otherwise. He immediately made an impact in the LR and on the ice once he made the big team roster. He was really crucial to the surprised cup win last season. If all my 2nd round picks turned out like King I’d never need a first round pick again.”
 

Analysis

 

DISCLAIMER: All of this data is taken from the player’s week of creation to the week ending on 12/6.

 

Safe Pick	TPE/W Before Draft	TPE/W After Draft
Xavier LeFlamant	8.58	12.08
Zamboni Driver	10.36	17.6
Dan Baillie Jr	11.23	12.52
The Terrible Trivium	10.08	15.71
AVERAGE	10.06	14.48

 

 

Late Riser	TPE/W Before Draft	TPE/W After Draft
Justin Graves (INACTIVE)	19.67	0.47
Vin Calia	15.5	15.28
Joseph Gainer (INACTIVE)	16.57	7.59
Kevin King	20.2	19.9
AVERAGE	17.99	10.81

 

As you can see, safe picks have the advantage here in TPE earning. Every single one of them trended upward after their draft, and some by large amounts. This was something that I didn’t really expect when I started this project. My first thought was that the two sides would be fairly equal on average, with the late risers having much more noticeable peaks and valleys in comparison to the reliable safe picks. However, the safe picks have really run away with this, and I think I really underestimated the potential that they possess.

 

As someone who has done scouting (or at least tried to) for 5 seasons now, I have always been one to hop on the bandwagon for late joiners who could be potential under the radar steals. However, this experience has made me take a step back, and realize that the upside that I’m looking for can be found within the safe picks in many cases. Just look at Zamboni Driver or The Terrible Trivium!
 

Do not take this as a slight to late risers though. If you pick the right one, you’ve hit the jackpot. It’s not often that you can get a Kevin King caliber player in the second round, so if you think you’ve got the winning ticket, you should absolutely go for it. The small sample size of TPE earning and community involvement can often make it difficult to predict the future of these players, but what’s life without a little bit of risk-taking here and there?

 

This has been a really fun project to work on. Nothing that was revealed here was groundbreaking by any means, but I think I learned a thing or two about underestimating recreates who may be considered low risk players with limited potential. Oftentimes, the reward is a lot greater than you'd think. Of course this is just my experience though. Maybe there’s someone out there who believes that late risers are too risky to take a chance on, and this study shows players like King and Calia who have proven themselves to be a step above those drafted around them.

 

Nevertheless, I hope you enjoyed this! If I get another idea for studying the draft like this, maybe Hindsight will become an occasionally recurring series.
 

VSN has been pumping out quality content left and right recently. Take a look at these, and see if something interests you!

Minor Adjustments | BOG Update | VSN Australia | Under 250

[DMaximus 1,046]

7 minutes ago, Patrik Tallinder said:

VSN has been pumping out quality content left and right recently.

I wholeheartedly agree! This is a great contribution to that quality content. Great topic and great article.

[der meister 3,248]

This was cool to see and I have no idea how I'm averaging 15 a week

[Tape-to-Tape 298]

Thank you for the fun read