CowboyinAmerica 2,759 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 The Worst Draft Top 5's in VHL History... by Math! It’s an argument that happens every so often on the VHL boards: What’s the best/worst draft class of all time? Often, there is all sorts of criteria that goes into what the answer is. It could be the most Hall-of-Famers, or the most champions. It could be the highest TPE, or the most players with a high amount of TPE. It could be the most late round steals. Most often, though, the tone for a draft is found at the top. For every Jardy Bunclewirth, there are five Jarvis Baldwins that blow everybody else their draft year out of the water. Most likely, someone is able to differentiate a good draft from a bad draft using only the first five selections. So that’s what I’ve decided to do, but this time, I have a secret weapon: math. Using YEAH’s excellent XM radios as a guide, I’ve entered the TPE total for every top five selection between Season 1 and 37 into a spreadsheet in order to determine the best and worst top fives of all time. But wait, what about TPE inflation? Won’t later drafts automatically have a higher TPE? You’re absolutely right, which is why I’ve determined the best and worst drafts a different way: compared to their contemporary peers. First, I found the average of the first five players in a given year’s draft, for an “average” top 5 draftee. Then, I found the average for all top five players from up to three seasons before and up to three seasons after that draft year. That means that Season 14 draftees will only be compared to Season 11 through 17 draftees. Season 27 will only be compared to Season 24 through Season 30, and so on. (This is adjusted slightly for Seasons 1-3 and 35-37, but not enough to majorly effect results.) From there, I divided the single draft year by the seven-year average and found a percentage that I’m calling the Above/Below Number – how much does a draft live up to the seasons around it? A 100% rate means that the top 5’s average is exactly the same as the seasons around it. An 80% rate means that a draft’s top 5 gained 20% fewer TPE than the drafts around it; a 120% rate means it gained 20% more. By comparing these numbers, I found the drafts that have the best and worst Top 5’s of all-time. I’ll start with the worst, just to make everyone suffer. 5. Season 2 Above/Below Number: 74.39% 1st Pick: Toronto (via Helsinki): RW Christian Stolzschweiger (577 TPE) 2nd Pick: Hamilton: RW Guillaume Latendresse (367 TPE) 3rd Pick: Stockholm: RW Jon Clarke (237 TPE) 4th Pick: Toronto: D Markus Lidstrom (154 TPE) 5th Pick: Avangard: LW Jon Church (256 TPE) It’s perhaps odd to have a season with a Hall of Famer – and a well-renowned one in Stolzschweiger at that – be in our worst top fives. But even taking account TPE inflation, this was a poor group, and it makes sense considering that most strong players would have signed up for Season 1 straight away. Strangely, Clarke and Lidstrom did both win championships, but that was as pre-rookies in Season 1, when there was no VHL. This group had an average TPE of 318.2; every single Top 5 player in the Season 3 draft topped that mark. 4. Season 4 Above/Below Number: 71.85% 1st Pick: Stockholm: F - Alec Miller (375 TPE) 2nd Pick: Seattle: F - Derek Harland (409 TPE) 3rd Pick: Seattle (via Avangard): F - Anders Heissman (211 TPE) 4th Pick: Stockholm (via Hamilton): D - Alex Kachur (232 TPE) 5th Pick: Hamilton (via Vasteras): F - Fabian Brunnstrom (530 TPE) But then after every single player in the Season 3 draft topped 367 TPE, Season 4 produced a draft that was even worse than Season 2. Alec Miller’s 375 TPE may not seem bad, but it’s actually the third-worst of all first overall picks. Harland, whose 409 TPE far outpaces the third and fourth picks, is still only 28th-highest second overall pick in the first 37 seasons. Brunnstrom is the only bright spot here. And the strangest part? Somehow, all five of these players each won at least one championship. 3. Season 13 Above/Below Number: 68.71% 1st Pick: Calgary Wranglers: D Alexander Sauve (695 TPE) 2nd Pick: Toronto Legion: RW Juha Ikonen (216 TPE) 3rd Pick: Toronto Legion (from Helsinki): D Cody Carlson (267 TPE) 4th Pick: HC Davos Dynamo: D Owen Sharpley (210 TPE) 5th Pick: HC Davos Dynamo (from New York): RW Lee Classified (352 TPE) Another day, another terrible top five that just happened to have a Hall of Famer. I do feel for the Legion here though; they had the second and third picks, and they somehow managed to get not even 500 TPE between them combined. Ikonen has the single-lowest TPE for a second overall pick ever; Carlson and Sharpley are both in the bottom ten of their respective picks as well. But, in what is becoming a trend, all five of these players still somehow won championships, with Sharpley and Classified winning with Davos their rookie season. There’s hope for you low-TPE inactives yet! 2. Season 9 Above/Below Number: 58.77% 1st Pick: Avangard Havoc (via Seattle): LW - Jack O'Riley (677 TPE) 2nd Pick: Seattle Bears (via Avangard): D - Jericho Kozmalov (354 TPE) 3rd Pick: Helsinki Titans: LW - Mikhail Sevastiyanov (218 TPE) 4th Pick: Helsinki Titans (via New York): LW - Derek Evans (191 TPE) 5th Pick: Toronto Legion: LW - Jared Myers (251 TPE) Similar to Season 13, this one started out so strong. Jack O’Riley would turn out to be a decent player in the VHL, and even now, he sits in the middle (22nd) in terms of first overall picks by TPE. But the rest of the field is just so lackluster, and it looks even worse when compared to the other draft classes surrounding it. TPE inflation may make it seem like TPE totals were super low, but every single season between S6 and S8, then S10 and S12 had the average Top 5 player at 486 TPE or above. Season 9’s average TPE is 338. 1. Season 29 Above/Below Number: 53.18% 1st Pick: Vasteras Iron Eagles (from Riga): Al Wilson (379 TPE) 2nd Pick: Vasteras Iron Eagles: Thomas Corcoran (691 TPE) 3rd Pick: Helsinki Titans: Walter Mitty (248 TPE) 4th Pick: Vasteras Iron Eagles (from Toronto via Seattle): Brandon Merritt (186 TPE) 5th Pick: Calgary Wranglers: Nikolai Chershenko (470 TPE) But to get the worst of the worst, it requires a trip far in the future. Season 27 and 28 were excellent drafts (more on that coming), but for Season 29, recruiting must have fallen off a cliff. We’re to the age of inflation here, but this class can’t catch a break – every single top 5 between S24 and S31 except this one produced at least one 1000 TPE player. And while Corcoran was a solid contributor before retiring early, and Munk’s Chershenko was a solid role player, the others were unmitigated disasters. It’s understandable why Vasteras/Stockholm has not won a championship since Season 26 given draft luck like this. The Spreadsheet gorlab, Devise, Phil and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOOM 8,525 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I like how nerdy you are. KUTGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoop 3,297 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 dis is gud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisF 105 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Nice little overview of previous seasons weakest drafts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesfan036 4,585 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 The early seasons were technically the worst tpe wise, but from what i understand it was way harder to earn tpe back then #tpe inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HF92 120 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Hey! One of my old players made a media spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLastOlympian07 2,388 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 scotty wasnt that good. #realtalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kendrick 4,733 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 This was amazing. It made me miss Stolzy even more though! I truly believe if he was still around he would be helping new guys around, was a great member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLastOlympian07 2,388 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 This was amazing. It made me miss Stolzy even more though! I truly believe if he was still around he would be helping new guys around, was a great member. what ever happened to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoop 3,297 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 The early seasons were technically the worst tpe wise, but from what i understand it was way harder to earn tpe back then #tpe inflation I got a five on a media spot once. Imagine that ever happening nowadays. (lol jk I just made that up for the joke, though maybe I did once, idk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahma 1,317 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Why S45 is not mentioned there?? :p #LongLiveS44DraftClass #S44DaBest #S44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munk 1,298 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Nikolai was the best Chershenko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,662 Posted September 18, 2015 Admin Share Posted September 18, 2015 Pretty accurate list of worst drafts imo. Only surprise for me is S2 and lack of S22. Some of those old numbers are terrifyingly bad. I could have sworn Harland had 600 TPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hybrid1486 577 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Pretty accurate list of worst drafts imo. Only surprise for me is S2 and lack of S22. Some of those old numbers are terrifyingly bad. I could have sworn Harland had 600 TPE. Eat a dick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandro 251 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Holy shit. Was I the best player to come out of the S4 Draft? O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kendrick 4,733 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Holy shit. Was I the best player to come out of the S4 Draft? O_O Derek Harland was not a bad player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboyinAmerica 2,759 Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Pretty accurate list of worst drafts imo. Only surprise for me is S2 and lack of S22. Some of those old numbers are terrifyingly bad. I could have sworn Harland had 600 TPE. Looks like S22 was 30th out of 37. Three players in the Top 5 hit 540 TPE or above, so not too bad? I'll put the full rankings up when I'm done with the three-media series I'm planning out of the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Victor 10,662 Posted September 19, 2015 Admin Share Posted September 19, 2015 I guess the top wasn't too bad though this was when people started having 900-1000 TPE players. I think literally after your sample (top 5), S22 is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast 887 Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Content 3/3 - There is no doubt in my mind when I say that you're my favourite writer on the site. You always have an interesting topic and put so much research into whatever it is. This is probably one of your best as well. Great job! Grammar 2/2 - Perfect. Appearance 1/1 - You even have a filter graph! Final 6/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachReilly 688 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Claimed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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