Activity can trump TPE, you've been really good about it lately. Wouldn't be surprised if you were one!
Kendrick has me projected at 13th overall and there is a lot of activity in the draft, which leads me to believe I'll be somewhere around that 7-13 area. Does joining at the beginning of S45 have any advantages? To my knowledge everyone projected to go ahead of me in the draft joined in S44.
Keep in mind thats basically 11th overall, I still had to list those two picks at 11 and 12 even though they are forfeited. Some advantages but none that would result in a huge gap. Most of the people ahead of you are not first-gens so they did benefit from slight carryover TPE. I'd say if I broke down the TPE in a chart you'd be somewhere from 2-5 in terms of earned since creation.