Gustav's Mock Draft: S83

[Gustav 6,417]

HELLO!

 

I didn't think I was going to do this for this season, but I ended up with--gasp!--an evening to myself! And I'm spending said evening doing what I do best, which is nerding out to fake athletes and their fake numbers. I'll try to get the draft order right this time...

 

Without further ado!

 

 

ROUND 1

 

 

 1st Overall 

Scotty Sundin | C | 404 TPE | Houston Bulls | @fromtheinside

I've actually projected this pick already! In my (apparently controversial) article in which I talk about how I would save Chicago, I have the first step down as Sundin at first overall. Let's face it--the Phoenix could use just about anyone, anywhere. With TPE inflation being what it is, and the offseason being longer to make room for all the meta business, Sundin is the first player in a long time to be drafted with over 400 TPE, and with 9-season careers on the horizon, we might be looking at one of the highest-powered prospects of all time. There's simply no better choice, and if he's willing to stick around through the first half of his career while the team builds up, he could be on top of a very powerful lineup in the future.

 

 2nd Overall (from Warsaw) 

Brandt Fuhr | G | 378 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @Tate

This pick was a tough one to figure out. Looking at Vancouver's roster, my first impression is that a rebuild might be in order--Tucker is out after this season, Zolnek is out after this season, and the defensive unit is fairly depleted. In addition, the TPE-efficient model that helped make the past few seasons' lineups so great simply won't fly under the new system. So, why would a team in this situation make the aggressive move to trade up to 2nd overall? Generally, something like this (at least, according to the way I think) would be done to fill one specific gap in one specific way. The one specific gap that can be filled in one specific way, with one specific player, most effectively, is in net, where former first-rounder Aike van Giersbergen hasn't updated since November. Fuhr will likely have to sit through some period of difficult changes, but I can't rationalize the idea of trading up for anyone else. Also likely? Vancouver has done their homework on Fuhr (or whoever else goes here) and gotten a promising answer from someone willing to stick around.

 

 3rd Overall (from DC) 

Igor Molotov | C | 390 TPE | Miami Marauders | @Dom

I actually didn't even consider what might happen at 3 when I projected Fuhr at 2, but this makes me feel much more confident about 2 and 3. Trading into the #3 slot is none other than Dom, general manager of...the Malmo Nighthawks. Here, we've got a team that's got a lot to shuffle around in the coming seasons as well, so it's going to help to have someone who sticks around for as long as they're needed. It's also going to be a good general guiding principle for a rebuilding team to go after the best player on the board, with not a ton of consideration of position. Molotov does both of those things, and the GM factor...doesn't exactly hurt either. And when we ask the same question that we did at 2--that being "why would this team be aggressive in the draft when they're more or less in a rebuild?"--the answer is clear. Molotov is the equivalent of a #1 overall pick for Malmo, and chances are he's penciled into the lineup already.

 

 4th Overall 

AirRig GoodBrandSun | D | 361 TPE | Houston Bulls | @Rhynex Entertainment

I wrestled with this one a bit, and I wasn't sure if I projected this pick for the right reasons. But, I've got my reasons nonetheless and I think it's best if I speak honestly. Purely objectively speaking, if Hammer Voss can be trusted to stick around, that is the pick to make here and anywhere hereafter. I have endless respect for BOOM as a member and a builder, and I don't want any of my analysis to take away from that. His last couple players, though, will raise some questions--though Gunnar Odinsson was the league's best for a brief period of time, it's at least twice in a row that BOOM has both played around with free agency and retired early. There is absolutely nothing wrong with either of those things, but it could make a GM hesitant (and understandably so). As an alternative, a team could pick up GoodBrandSun, whose agent's former (self-named) player stuck around New York long-term. A forward would fit in much better for Davos, but the next seven players on the board play defense. I'd say trading down is in the team's best interest, but I find it hard to believe anyone would trade up to 4 unless Fuhr somehow escapes the top 3.

 

 5th Overall 

Hammar Voss | D | 366 TPE | Houston Bulls | @BOOM

Allow me to clarify something that may not have gotten across in the last spot: Voss is not a bad pick. He's perfectly worthy of being #4, and outside of the top 3 he's got easily the most upside. While some level of risk might turn Davos away, a team like New York might take a swing at the opportunity. Currently, the Americans are in rough shape, and they'll take whatever they can get. But on top of that, they're missing a lot of potential star power. There are very many good players on the board #5, but Voss may be the only one I'd tag in this moment as a potential great. With proper management and a good plan, this may turn out very well for New York.

 

 6th Overall 

Ryuji Sakamoto | D | 339 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @der meister

The need for more defense might not seem apparent in Helsinki, and the team is actually fairly well off across the board as it looks like they'll finally be escaping their rebuild this season. At first, I looked at the Titans' roster and thought they wouldn't need anyone else to play defense, but then I realized that there aren't any glaring needs for the immediate future and started looking deeper (especially because it would be hard to justify reaching down 70 TPE for a forward). There is a potential spot for Sakamoto--though the Titans are set on defense for the immediate future, many of their top players and prospects are from S81, and the team will likely have some cap issues to deal with in S84 when all of them are up for a bigger contract. With three defenders on the roster from two seasons (79 and 80), it might be smart to offload Nano or Remy next offseason to carve out a spot for Sakamoto, thus keeping cap down while sticking with decent players with a proven history of being productive in the league.

 

 7th Overall 

Brian Kowalski | D | 273 TPE | Saskatoon Wild | @Wheaties

Yes, TPE drops off noticeably after Sakamoto. The next few players on the board are fairly similar TPE-wise as well, and one would think that my job would be made harder by that. For this pick? Not really. Vets recognize vets, and I also think former Wild GMs recognize current Wild players. New GM @Doomsday is sure to pick out Wheaties, who's a prominent figure outside the VHL, and it helps quite a bit that the Legion could use a solid defensive prospect. I'd love to see how this pick goes, but if 1-6 follow 1-6 in TPE, as I think they will, I also think 7 won't be a difficult decision.

 

 8th Overall (from MAL) 

Tomas Sogaard | LW | 267 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @Brandon

DC should do something about their forward unit, and I think this is the perfect pick to do that. Let's ignore the overall draft ranking--Sogaard is the #3 forward in the draft, and he's just as good a pick as anyone surrounding him in the rankings, especially for a team looking for a forward. With five of six forwards on the roster being pre-S80, the time to start planning for turnover is now, and Sogaard is a valuable piece of the puzzle. With this pick, too, DC gets yet another member from the good old days who came back to the forum after years of being away, a class of members that's done very well in recent times.

 

 9th Overall (from SEA via HSK) 

Siyan Yasilievich | D | 282 TPE | Philadelphia Reapers | @badcolethetitan

Rebuild incoming! Calgary is tearing things apart. And you know what I like to do to teams that are rebuilding? That's right, I like to give them the best player available without thinking about position. The best player available right now is Yasilievich, who's been passed over a couple times ahead of this in favor of others who potentially represent better fits for their teams. I think it's very possible that Yasilievich could end up going at 7 as well (he's been max earning lately!), but in this projection I have Calgary pulling the trigger and getting someone with underrated potential.

 

 10th Overall 

Jake Thunder | D | 268 TPE | Las Vegas Aces | @Thunder

Yet another one for Calgary, and here they make a similar pick. Thunder is quietly earning very well, and could be a very nice complement to Yasilievich in the future. It's absolutely correct that I make this as another "best player available" pick, but I sincerely promise that "best player available" is a compliment. Thunder represents the chance for Calgary to lay a solid foundation on the blue line in one season, and to move on confidently with who they select in this draft.

 

 11th Overall (from PRG) 

Leandro Goncalves | C | 262 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @leandrofg

What? Yet another member I don't think I've ever interacted with, max earning and being a WJC GM? Unbelievable. I remember a time when I had nothing better to do than stare at the VHL all day, and that certainly wouldn't have happened then. ANYWAY, forwards are at a premium in this draft class, and Goncalves is a valuable pick at 11. I like to think Davos has a decent history with newer players and player enjoyment over the last decade (now included), and it should be a spot that's very conducive to Goncalves' development as the team aims to escape its rebuild over the next couple seasons.

 

 12th Overall 

Ivan Retoslav | C | 252 TPE | Houston Bulls | @eagle_3450

London would do well to pick Retoslav here, deviating ever so slightly from the TPE rankings (which are close enough here as to be inconsequential anyway). I've seen Eagle around league chat every now and then, always a bonus, and Retoslav has demonstrated very solid earning. I think that London would go with someone on defense if they really wanted to draft based on position, but that's a little bit of a reach and I also think that this pick is good enough to make up for that. 

 

And no, I have no super secret insider AGM info about this pick. I just got here.

 

 13th Overall (from RIG via PRG) 

Landon Wolanin | LW | 260 TPE | Las Vegas Aces/San Diego Marlins | @jacobcarson877

I got really excited when I saw that the portal had Calgary for three picks in a row, but NEVER MIND! We should really get the portal draft order ironed out. Wolanin is yet another underrated first-round talent in this draft (and also one whose player...somehow doesn't have a nationality on the portal? What's up with that one?) who may be going under the radar of quite a few people. After picking up two on defense already by this point, Calgary conveniently sits in a spot where a forward is the best they can get--and that is what they will get.

 

 14th Overall (from LA) 

Augustus Kennedy | G | 259 TPE | Saskatoon Wild | @InstantRockstar

In my Chicago article, I had Kennedy going to the Phoenix after a trade up, for the reason that a rebuilding team with needs everywhere shouldn't be shelling out huge assets to get a goaler right away, but that Kennedy is still a very solid pick with fairly assured budget starter potential. That reason holds true for New York here, as they'll pick up the goaler they want (and need!) for the future. Unless another team manages to trade up ahead of 14 for Kennedy, too, he's all but guaranteed to be available here, as neither Calgary nor London nor Davos nor anyone else in the neighborhood has an immediate need for someone in net. Finally, it's a match made in heaven--GM @MexicanCow123 spent much of his early time in the VHL as AGM of San Diego under IR. 

 

 15th Overall 

PJ Daniels | LW | 243 TPE | Las Vegas Aces | @xNJDevilsFanx

Imagine being from New Jersey! Never in a million years could that be me, but it could absolutely be Moscow's GM and there's a definite nonzero chance that it could be this player's agent as well. That's not why I projected this pick the way I did--solid earning did that for me--but it can't hurt, can it? There's a case to be made for Moscow to draft any skater position here--they've got a good handful of forward prospects (as opposed to none on defense), but none that stick out too strongly, so I consider Daniels the best choice here as defense is still a good reach.

 

 16th Overall 

Baxter Arcanum | D | 223 TPE | Ottawa Lynx | @ctots

Another pick, another max earner, and I can say quite safely that I'm very proud of this draft class. Any skater would make sense here, but defense is where the team is most lacking after both Kitson and Nalwa were shipped off elsewhere. Arcanum fills the role of a prospect perfectly, with less TPE and less name recognition than many others but with big potential to be a big solution to some big problems. This may be seen as somewhat of a reach, but it's one that the Wolves should feel comfortable making.

 

 

ROUND 2

 

 

 17th Overall 

Pete Mitchell | LW | 262 TPE | Las Vegas Aces | @Crstats23
Mitchell falls a bit due to a bit lower earn rate than the others ahead of him in this mock, but stays in respectable territory due to past league experience. No matter the earn rate, recreating is a mark of consistency, and it's one that can't be overlooked after Chris Reynolds' steady career with Warsaw. Chicago manages to pick up a player who they can count on (a factor which they desperately need) with this pick, potentially with less expectation of star power but with a good deal less risk.

 

 18th Overall 

Sock Monkey | LW | 209 TPE | Miami Marauders | @chikn

From one recreate we go to another, and it's with this pick that DC hopes to continue building up their future forward lines. The former agent of defender Chicken Wing, also of Warsaw for a while, Sock Monkey is a decent pick for much the same reason as Mitchell--it's a low-risk, team-knows-what-they're-getting type of deal where the team in question gets what's probably a decent second-line player in a competitive lineup. That's conveniently exactly what they need, and with Sock Monkey likely available at 18, it's a smart investment.

 

 19th Overall 

Adison Bond | C | 184 TPE | Ottawa Lynx/Mississauga Hounds | @adison

HOT TAKE! I think it's more likely than not that Bond doesn't end up in the top 20, but this pick makes sense, and here's why. Bond has been earning weirdly lately, with many supporting tasks being completed, but no welfare or 6-point task. Perhaps Bond's agent lacks a bit of clarification on the earning process, perhaps not--but with a little bit of guidance and a little bit of added consistency, we could see Bond moving up the rankings. Also, Davos has already drafted a forward, and with many picks in this draft, they can afford to take a little risk. Last but not least, Bond's agent was a GM in the Junior Showcase tournament...which GM @Alex runs.

 

 20th Overall 

Deron Nesbitt | D | 227 TPE | Ottawa Lynx | @AW13

There's a definite case to be made for Nesbitt to go higher up the board than this, and I wouldn't argue against it. AW is an established member of other leagues, and he's created some decent players here as well, most recently bringing Lexi Glass to Warsaw (is this the Warsaw recreate round? It sure feels like it). This pick offers some level of comfort if Voss ends up not working out for whatever reason, and I'd also argue that Nesbitt is the best player available at this point (certainly in TPE, yes, but there are more factors than that). I think this pick could go either way, but there's nothing wrong with picking someone who keeps coming back, and there's a good deal of potential for expectations to be exceeded.

 

 21st Overall 

Calen McKay | C | 192 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @Kendrick

Speaking of members who keep coming back...well, here's another one. I believe the last time Kendrick played for Helsinki was with Jesse Wilson, way back when I joined the league, and we'd all hope for a happy homecoming with McKay. Helsinki is no stranger to picking somewhat over-the-hill (though still consistent) earners in the second round (think Calix Pearce last season), and though that hasn't (yet) worked out supremely, it's a perfectly viable way to go about things and it's a huge understatement to say that Kendrick is perfectly capable of contributing to a team. I loved having Lewis Dawson (selected--I think--7th overall in--I think--S70?) as a teammate in Malmo, and it's the hope of Titans management that McKay turns out similarly.

 

 22nd Overall 

Justin Adolfsen | LW | 205 TPE | Saskatoon Wild/San Diego Marlins | @NJDevils24

The second round isn't the place to find the solution to your positional need, unless you're lucky, but Warsaw (despite being fairly well-balanced at the moment) could certainly use a forward prospect more than someone elsewhere at the moment and Adolfsen is at the top of the TPE list at this point in our projection. Looking more to pick smartly than to make a splash, the Predators go for Adolfsen here (who's been mainly taking welfare, but doing so consistently, which is more important) and plan for him to fit into the lineup a season or two down the road.

 

 23rd Overall 

James Marino | D | 197 TPE | Ottawa Lynx/San Diego Marlins | @Adrest245

Marino could certainly go higher than this, and I think that's a definite possibility, but Adrest's last player went inactive early on, which could lead to some GMs being hesitant. I don't think there's any way Marino ends up falling much farther than this, though, and I've projected him to Moscow because I know of @Spartan's connection with affiliate leagues, where Adrest is mostly focused. Not only does that bring a level of familiarity from a GM standpoint, it's potentially more conducive to player development and interest--a two-way street that goes well both ways.

 

 24th Overall (from MAL) 

Svatopluk Puk | RW | 186 TPE | Ottawa Lynx/San Diego Marlins | @Otaznik

The player I had going to Chicago in my Chicago article (after some pick movement) instead goes to Davos in this one--we're in mostly-welfare territory for most of our picks at this point, but Puk has been earning a bit more than that and also just so happens to be near the top of the TPE list at this point in the draft. This pick gives Davos some security in reaching for Bond at 19, as Puk should develop into a reasonable second-line option eventually if Bond doesn't pan out.

 

 25th Overall (from SEA via DAV) 

Sam Azjha | C | 140 TPE | Halifax 21st | @Azjha_59

ANOTHER HOT TAKE! This one sees Toronto reaching down 40-ish TPE in the rankings to grab a player at a position they don't even really need. Why, you ask? Azjha's earning has picked up markedly over the past two weeks, with graphics rather than welfare for a whole 10 capped. Though that will need to be kept up, it's an absolute bargain at 25 if it can be. This is also a name I think I recognize, and I believe it's someone I've interacted with on some level at some point. For not-living-here-as-much-anymore me to recognize a newer member at this stage is a mark of promise, and Toronto makes this pick hoping things will work out well.

 

 26th Overall 

Jeremy Davidson | RW | 164 TPE | Halifax 21st |@jpdavidson8787

Calgary shouldn't need to load up on defense any more after the first round, as evidenced by my projection of Wolanin up there. We're certainly in best-player-on-the-board territory at this point in the second round, and Davidson has some upside, mostly welfare but participating in things like press conferences and trivia on occasion. Even a player with potential to make the roster is valuable to a rebuilding team, and that's what Calgary gets.

 

 27th Overall (from PRG) 

Dens Oden | LW | 150 TPE | Saskatoon Wild | @Snussu

There are better picks in terms of both TPE and earn rate to be made here, but I make this projection under the assumption that Davos has done their homework well. I once had Snu as a player and loved having him on the team for his activity in our server--and he felt similarly about playing for Davos. One can look at this pick as a mostly welfare-only player going above their TPE ranking, but one can also look at it as a member who has been a member longer than I have going to a franchise that he's personally connected to. And that's something I think makes a lot of sense!

 

 28th Overall 

Nicholas Blue | D | 165 TPE | Miami Marauders | @lidz

Nicholas who? That's right, it's Nicholas Blue. Here in the draft, it's really, really small things that can set one player apart from another, and there's one really, really small thing about Blue that I'm a really, really big fan of. In both of the last two weeks, he's taken himself from welfare to welfare-plus-trivia, and with a couple press conferences done in the past, it's clear that we have more than just a clicker on our hands. There are more people doing more than just welfare, here, sure--but it's the trend that interests me. Just ask Jimmy Spyro--a player drafted right as they start to improve their earn rate can blow up if given the right attention.

 

 29th Overall (from RIG) 

Babushka | D | 186 TPE | San Diego Marlins | @BrutalBoost

"CaLgArY iSn'T dRaFtiNg MoRe DeFeNsE," said some idiot not long ago. Well, guess what: they are. It's not like that option is completely off the table, as everyone here has room to grow into an eventual future role. With Babushka, Calgary gets the top-TPE player on the board, and a former VHLM GM and current VHLM AGM at that. Though former-GM-now-on-welfare can often spell BUST, it doesn't always--and if it doesn't, Calgary gets more than what one would expect.

 

 30th Overall 

Hasbulla Magomedov | LW | 178 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @Motzaburger

It should make some GMs raise an eyebrow that Motza burned out fairly quickly on the last time around, but it should also be a point of interest that Micheal (yes, I spelled that right) Gary Scott was a good earner for a good while and that Motza is a former VHLM GM. IR is someone who's been around long enough to remember the latter, and it's for that reason that LA takes a chance on Hasbulla, who gets the chance to prove whether or not he is truly NUMBER ONE in the seasons ahead.

 

 31st Overall 

E Man | D | 165 TPE | Las Vegas Aces | @Ian Kingston

I can see E Man going as high as 26th, and this is another Moscow-projected pick that I think would be great value at its spot. Though there's been a slight hiccup in his earning over the last week-ish, E Man earned quite well for someone who would go at this point before that. If he can get back on track, this pick is a steal, and there's plenty of room to exceed even that with the proper coaching.

 

 32nd Overall 

Boston | LW | 154 TPE | Halifax 21st | @CanucksFan

This pick is projected for just about the same reasons as with E Man--earning ever so slightly less in the last week or so, Boston has better upside than just a welfare player. As an apparent Canucks fan, too, Boston's agent will have something in common with both the team's location and with Nyko, who hopes to keep the Wolves going strong after this offseason's changes.

 

 

As always, tell me what you think! I tried to actually get the draft order from the rulebook this time, so...fingers crossed on that one I guess? I'm looking forward to a great draft, and I'd love to see how the results of the draft stack up to my projections!

 

 

4,267 words | See you in a month!

[BOOM 8,748]

[jacobcarson877 2,536]

I actually read all of this, and I'm from the United States Outlying Islands which probably messes with various things on the site and that makes me very happy.

[Spartan 4,403]

Can confirm a higher than zero percent chance of Daniels being from NJ

[leandrofg 1,159]

5 hours ago, Gustav said:

 

 11th Overall (from PRG) 

Leandro Goncalves | C | 262 TPE | Mexico City Kings | @leandrofg

What? Yet another member I don't think I've ever interacted with, max earning and being a WJC GM? Unbelievable. I remember a time when I had nothing better to do than stare at the VHL all day, and that certainly wouldn't have happened then. ANYWAY, forwards are at a premium in this draft class, and Goncalves is a valuable pick at 11. I like to think Davos has a decent history with newer players and player enjoyment over the last decade (now included), and it should be a spot that's very conducive to Goncalves' development as the team aims to escape its rebuild over the next couple seasons.

 

See you in a month!

 

Well... it certainly doesn't have to be like that! Hello & see you in a month!

 

@thadthrasher, guess it's yet to be known about your repeat in the JST.

[Gustav 6,417]

Allow me to WEEK 2

[Gustav 6,417]

Week 3

[Gustav 6,417]

Week 4