Gustav

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Give VHL Hall of Fame Builder Gustav his prize

I’ll stop short of accusing random.org of being wrong—originally, Apple’s “shuffle” feature was entirely random and they had to change it because people assumed that some sequences of songs that it randomly generated were wrong. BUT I use it all the time for Town of Salem and I have to say that if I were to accept everything it gave me, we would have multiple roles with 3+ people playing then just about every time. I have no problem with some duplicates, but I almost always have to do some rerolling if something overloads. I trust their reasoning that it’s based on atmospheric noise and that that’s random, but I do wonder if it’s pulling from some data set where the noise at certain points hangs around a specific level that leads to it picking that level a lot. Obviously, random means that it will repeat by chance too, but personal experience has me wondering how much it should. It’s all just speculation; overall it works fine for me. So maybe you guys are taking me out of the list or something.

One thing I'd point to in particular is LA's ability to stack up four first-round selections in this draft. It isn't a particularly huge draft, which means that things could go either way when you've done that. What LA did to get into their current state (lose all their top players without selling for assets, instead choosing to wait for them to retire) is something that teams like Prague and Malmo should already be watching to find out how they ended up with those draft assets. From this point, their big draft haul this season should be an interesting case study in how that's best managed. Hopefully competing, and also my own starting to get into that "good" TPE range. Last season was expected to be a bit of a retool in Seattle, but those have also historically turned around pretty quickly there. We'll see if the team can turn the corner, and I'll see how much I can play into that. I'm going home for the holidays + for the rest of the year, but I have no specific plans yet. It's the only time of the year that all my friends are in town for as long as this, so we'll try our best to catch up and do some fun stuff. 1. Predict your stats for the coming season! 2. You can add one attribute to STHS that you think it's missing. What is it and how do you think it helps? 3. What's your favorite holiday-related movie?

2024 is the fourth year in a row that the league has done its 12-day donation drive. Having been in the league since before 12 Days of Christmas was a thing, I'm proud to say that I've contributed to the annual charity every year we've run it, and that I really appreciate that the league has (allegedly) put our money to a good use. So why haven't I won anything yet? You see, out of every iteration of five winners, then five winners again, then three winners, then one winner, across four separate tiers of winning, exactly zero of the names drawn have been mine. Heck, the first year even featured ten winners in that first bracket, a fact that I'm sure the league hoped no one would notice when they cut that in half. It's because of this that I started my posting in this year's holiday threads with a complaint that the blue team was purposely avoiding giving me prizes, presumably because they hate me. I decided I'd like to see what I could do to analyze that, so I went back to every previous holiday drive and found out: How many people had replied to each day's thread Whether I myself had entered in that drawing by replying to that thread ...and I did what I do best and put it in a spreadsheet that calculates the probability over time that I would have won at least one of the drawings up to this point, by taking that number for each tier of each drive and factoring in bonus draws from donation and the number of winners in each tier. What I found was: Surprisingly, there was already at least a 10% chance that I would have won in the very first tier ever, based on the fact that there were 10 winners in that tier. There was approximately a 15% chance that I would have won something in 2021 overall. By the end of 2022, that number grew to a 28% chance that across the first two years, I would have won something at some point. By the end of 2023, I had just over a 40% chance of having won anything at all across those three years. So, it still isn't out of the question that I've lost year after year by chance. Should I not win anything this year, though, my cumulative chance will likely break 50%--meaning that it will have become more likely than not that I would have taken a prize. So I'm not being cheated yet, but keep an eye out for all I might have to say next year if history repeats itself.

DJ KHALED

Gustav

Howdy doody

Go Bills

#FreeDil

I don’t think Malmo made the right move on paper, but anyone reducing it to that is oversimplifying the situation. The ultimate goal of a GM is to serve the team. If the team is excited to spend this year competing for Malmo, then this is a deal that serves that purpose. Plenty of teams have chosen to keep their retirees for the sake of giving them the last run they deserve (Prague and LA come to mind in recent memory), and it’s only new this time in that the GM is new and chose to go further Devise than the others. Malmo is PROBABLY in long-term trouble if you ask me, but they were kind of there already. Everything is a trade-off here, and we’ll at least get a strong showing before the rebuild starts. I might add that it will also be interesting to see how that goes—it’s a real opportunity to build up from the ground and not many people get a slate this blank to work with.

Here for YET ANOTHER YEAR of being UNFAIRLY DENIED the grand prize. I wonder at what point the league will take justice into its own hands and ban ALL other members for my sake.

Transaction ID: 4A504471YU6329842 $10 donated, 5 on behalf of myself and 5 on behalf of @Mysterious_Fish. If it somehow doesn't go through, please let me know and I'll deal with it somehow. I had to put a newer credit card on file and it says it's now associated with my account but it didn't say I was using it when I submitted the transaction.